Small Craft Advisory 43, NWS Anchorage, AK

991 
FZAK51 PAFC 130725 AAA
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

UPDATED ZONE 121

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-132015-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A 975 MB LOW 200 NM WEST OF GRAHAM ISLAND TUE AFTERNOON MOVES TO
200 NM WEST OF SITKA AS A 998 MB LOW LATE WED NIGHT AND DISSIPATES
THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-132015-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-132015-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-132015-
RESURRECTION BAY-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT TOWARD MORNING. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND
SNOW.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-132015-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-132015-
PORT VALDEZ-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-132015-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-132015-
VALDEZ ARM-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-132015-
PASSAGE CANAL-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-132015-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-132015-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-132015-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE. SEAS
8 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT EXCEPT N 20 KT N OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-132015-
CHINIAK BAY-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-132015-
MARMOT BAY-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-132015-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-132015-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-132015-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW. 
.WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-132015-
KACHEMAK BAY-
1025 PM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU AND THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

582 
FZAK51 PAFC 131215
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-140045-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A 980 MB LOW 150 NM SOUTHWEST OF SITKA MOVES TO 90 NM WEST OF
SITKA AT 998 MB EARLY THU MORNING AND DISSIPATES THU AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-140045-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-140045-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ121-140045-
RESURRECTION BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-140045-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-140045-
PORT VALDEZ-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-140045-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-140045-
VALDEZ ARM-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-140045-
PASSAGE CANAL-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-140045-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-140045-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ132-140045-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. N
OF DANGEROUS CAPE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ136-140045-
CHINIAK BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-140045-
MARMOT BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ138-140045-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-140045-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-140045-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-140045-
KACHEMAK BAY-
315 AM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 
3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

769 
FZAK51 PAFC 140003
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-141245-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A LOW IN THE EASTERN GULF WILL GRADUALLY FILL TONIGHT AND
DISSIPATE THU. A NORTH PACIFIC FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH INTO THE
SOUTHERN GULF FRI.

$$

PKZ119-141245-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ120-141245-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ121-141245-
RESURRECTION BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. SNOW.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-141245-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-141245-
PORT VALDEZ-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-141245-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW. 
.THU...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-141245-
VALDEZ ARM-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-141245-
PASSAGE CANAL-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-141245-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-141245-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ132-141245-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-141245-
CHINIAK BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ137-141245-
MARMOT BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ138-141245-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ139-141245-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ140-141245-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-141245-
KACHEMAK BAY-
303 PM AKST WED JAN 13 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
441 AM AKST TUE JAN 12 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BROAD UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX OVER THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO
DOMINATE THE WEATHER OVER THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE. TWO
DISTINCT UPPER LEVEL LOWS ARE ROTATING AROUND THIS COMPLEX...THE
FIRST OF WHICH IS SKIRTING THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND HAS BROUGHT
SNOW SHOWERS TO WESTERN BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
OVERNIGHT. THE OTHER IS A STORM FORCE LOW LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS...AND IS BRINGING RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
CENTRAL/WESTERN ALEUTIANS. A DEFORMATION BAND EXTENDING
NORTHWESTWARD FROM THIS LOW BROUGHT THE HEAVIEST OF THE SNOWFALL
TO THE SHEMYA AREA OVERNIGHT...BUT IS BEGINNING TO DISSIPATE AS
IT MOVES OFF TO THE SOUTHWEST. OVER THE PANHANDLE/NW
CANADA...PERSISTENT RIDGING IS BEING USHERED AWAY BY THE NEXT LOW
THAT IS BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE GULF. THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN GULF TODAY...AND HELP TO BRING MORE ACTIVE WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE SOUTH MAINLAND OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ON THE
NORTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS LOW...A WEAKENING INVERTED TROUGH OVER
THE NORTH GULF IS BRINGING RAIN MAINLY TO THE GULF COAST.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD SYNOPTIC AGREEMENT THROUGH MID
WEEK...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT SURPRISING CONSIDERING THE VERY COMPLEX
PATTERN CURRENTLY OVER MUCH OF THE STATE. THE MAIN DIFFERENCES IN
THE MODELS ARE INSTEAD SMALLER SCALE FEATURES THAT ARE HAVING A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON FORECAST CONFIDENCE...ESPECIALLY WITH
REGARDS TO A DEFORMATION BAND THAT LOOKS TO SWING THROUGH
SOUTHCENTRAL STARTING THIS AFTERNOON. THE MODELS CONTINUED TO
STRUGGLE OVERNIGHT WITH ITS TIMING...INTENSITY AND LONGEVITY. IN
PARTICULAR THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM AND GEM REGIONAL ARE THE
FASTEST IN BRINGING HEAVIER RAIN/SNOW INTO SOUTHCENTRAL BY THIS
AFTERNOON...WHILE THE GFS TRENDED MUCH WEAKER AND SLOWER OVERNIGHT
WITH THE 6Z RUN. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT HOWEVER THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SWITCH OVER TO SNOW IF NOT STARTING INITIALLY
WITH SNOW FROM THIS EVENT. WITH THIS LARGE AMOUNT OF DISCREPANCY
IN THE MODELS...CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE KEPT RELATIVELY SMALL
INTO WEDNESDAY. MODEL AGREEMENT THEN BEGINS TO IMPROVE AS A
SHORTWAVE RIDES UP COOK INLET ON TOP OF THE DEFORMATION
BAND...LEADING TO HIGHER CONFIDENCE THAT MOST AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF COAST WILL SEE SNOW AT SOME POINT ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LOTS
OF WEAK "RIPPLES" IN THE VORTICITY FIELDS ARE MAKING THE FORECAST
FAIRLY DIFFICULT...AS THE MODELS ARE STRUGGLING TO RESOLVE THESE
SUBTLE (BUT IMPORTANT FOR THE SENSIBLE WEATHER) FEATURES. A WEAK
SYSTEM WILL SLIDE EAST-TO-WEST OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA
TODAY...SLIDING WEST OF ANCHORAGE TONIGHT. BY LATE TONIGHT AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
PUSH THE SYSTEM BACK TOWARDS THE EAST...CROSSING ANCHORAGE AGAIN
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS TIME THE SYSTEM WILL THEN BE BETTER
ORGANIZED...WITH A NICE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO GO WITH THE TROUGH. THE
TROUGH WILL THEN PUSH NORTHEAST INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN LATE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL DRY OUT BEHIND IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A SURFACE LOW CENTERED ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA EARLY THIS
MORNING TRACKS SLOWLY NORTHWEST TODAY WITH STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW
INCREASING ACROSS THE DELTA LATER THIS MORNING. SNOW WILL CONTINUE
TO DEVELOP AROUND THE LOW CENTER BRINGING ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ACROSS THE DELTA. ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST...FLOW
WILL BE WEAK AS RIDGING BUILDS INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS WILL DIMINISH ACROSS THESE AREAS LATE
TODAY WITH A SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR MASS SETTLING TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. LIGHTER FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
TONIGHT COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS JUST OFF THE SURFACE
WILL BRING PATCHY FOG AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH AREAS OF FOG EXPECTED
OVER BRISTOL BAY. FOG IMPROVEMENT SHOULD OCCUR BY EARLY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON...HOWEVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY MAY SEE PROLONGED
CONDITIONS AS TEMPERATURE AND DEW POINT TEMPERATURES FALL THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON. FOG SHOULD NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVING FROM THE ALASKA PENINSULA KEEPS THE
ENVIRONMENT SLIGHTLY LESS STABLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA PENINSULA (DAYS
1 AND 2)...
THE STORM SYSTEM JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
WILL BE THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THIS
SYSTEM STALLS A FRONT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CHAIN TODAY
BRINGING PERSISTENT MAX GALE WINDS ACROSS THE MARINES AND STRONG
WINDS ACROSS THE ISLANDS. SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE FRONT
SHOULD IMPROVE TONIGHT AS THE FRONT SLIGHTLY WEAKENS.
TONIGHT...ANOTHER PACIFIC SURFACE LOW RACES NORTH AND ENHANCES THE
FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW
FURTHER EAST ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS. BY WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT
LOOKS TO STRETCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THROUGH
THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH NORTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS AND BERING AS THE LOW CENTERS SOUTH OF ADAK.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE SOUTHCENTRAL
REGION BEFORE EXITING THE AOR BY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
SOUTHERLY JET HAS MOVED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD FROM YESTERDAY. IT WILL
BE LOCATED MORE OVER THE WESTERN VALLEY OF THE SUSITNA VALLEY AND
THE THE ALASKA RANGE. THE ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET STREAK WILL
ENHANCE THE POSSIBILITY FOR MORE SNOWFALL AS THIS FEATURE MOVES
NORTHWARD. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL STILL SEE SOME SNOWFALL AS THIS
SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. BY THURSDAY A RIDGE WILL BUILD
INTO THE GULF EXTENDING INTO THE SOUTHCENTRAL REGION AND THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRIER CONDITIONS WITH WARM
AIR ADVECTION ACCOMPANIED BY WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT OUR
AOR HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.

ON THE BERING SIDE...A WEAK LOW LOCATED IN THE BERING STRAIT WILL
CONTINUE TO FILL AND DISSIPATE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. WHILE A LOW
WILL DEVELOP JUST SOUTH OF THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM
WILL MOVE EASTWARD AND MERGE WITH ANOTHER NORTH PACIFIC LOW
LOCATED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY THURSDAY
MORNING. THIS SYNOPTIC FEATURE WILL THEN MERGE AND BECOME A BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BY FRIDAY
HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS PATTERN WILL PRODUCE A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME FOR THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN FOR THE
REST OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO STRUGGLE
WITH THE PLACEMENT OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM DEVELOPING
JUST SOUTH OF THE BERING SEA AND THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. THIS IS
RESULTING IN THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE BEING BELOW AVERAGE THROUGH
THIS UPCOMING WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES...155 170 171 172 175 176 177 178.
		 HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY...185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DEK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...BL
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...PD