Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2016

Small Craft Advisory 248, NWS Anchorage, AK

March 19, 2016

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Mar 19, 2016, 2:53 PM AKDT. It was in force for 37 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 19, 2016, 2:53 PM AKDT (22:53 UTC)
Expired: Mar 21, 2016, 3:30 AM AKDT
In force: 37 hr
Issued by: NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

934 
FZAK51 PAFC 192253
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-201215-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST TO SOUTH OF KODIAK 
THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. A 985 MB LOW 650 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK WILL
BE A 1002 MB LOW 420 NM SOUTH OF KETCHIKAN MON AFTERNOON. A 993 MB
LOW WILL DEVELOP 300 NM SOUTH OF KODIAK SUN EVENING AND PERSIST
200 NM SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-201215-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
S AND W OF MIDDLETON ISLAND...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-201215-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ121-201215-
RESURRECTION BAY-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND 
SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS 
S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT AND TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-201215-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-201215-
PORT VALDEZ-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. 
RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...NE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-201215-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-201215-
VALDEZ ARM-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-201215-
PASSAGE CANAL-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT DURING THE EVENING. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 1 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-201215-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-201215-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-201215-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ136-201215-
CHINIAK BAY-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-201215-
MARMOT BAY-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN AND SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-201215-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-201215-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT BY AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-201215-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-201215-
KACHEMAK BAY-
253 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SNOW.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT AND MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

2 follow-up statements

464 
FZAK51 PAFC 201149
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-210100-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A FRONT WILL PERSIST FROM THE NORTH GULF COAST TO THE EAST SIDE OF
KODIAK ISLAND THROUGH SUN AFTERNOON. A 992 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHEAST
OF KODIAK DISSIPATES BY SUN AFTERNOON. A 991 MB LOW FORMS 190 NM
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK MON MORNING BEFORE DIMINISHING TO A WEAK TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL GULF TUE MORNING.

$$

PKZ119-210100-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ120-210100-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ121-210100-
RESURRECTION BAY-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS
AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-210100-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN
THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-210100-
PORT VALDEZ-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-210100-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-210100-
VALDEZ ARM-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-210100-
PASSAGE CANAL-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-210100-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-210100-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING NE 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9
FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ132-210100-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-210100-
CHINIAK BAY-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING E 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ137-210100-
MARMOT BAY-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 7 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-210100-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES. SEAS
6 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT SUBSIDING. RAIN WITH SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-210100-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
8 FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-210100-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-210100-
KACHEMAK BAY-
349 AM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

303 
FZAK51 PAFC 202257
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-211130-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT ALONG THE NORTH GULF COAST MOVES INTO KODIAK ISLAND AND THE
WEST GULF COAST BY MON MORNING. A 990 MB LOW 275 NM EAST OF SITKINAK
ISLAND MON MORNING MOVES TO NEAR AKHIOK MON NIGHT...THEN MOVES INTO
THE ALASKA PENINSULA. A STRONG FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHERN GULF MIDDAY
TUE.

$$

PKZ119-211130-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...WINDS BECOMING NE 30 KT THIS EVENING. WINDS BECOMING SE
25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ120-211130-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT BY MIDNIGHT. SEAS E
WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT BUILDING TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ121-211130-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS OUT OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-211130-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE WIND 15 KT BY MIDNIGHT. E
WIND GUSTING TO 25 KT NEAR HINCHINBROOK ENTRANCE. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-211130-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW..
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-211130-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-211130-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-211130-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2
FT. RAIN.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-211130-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-211130-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ132-211130-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ136-211130-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-211130-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING E 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT
BUILDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-211130-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-211130-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-211130-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE AND TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-211130-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKDT SUN MAR 20 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. GUSTS TO 25 KT DEVELOPING THIS EVENING. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Mar 19, 5:41 AM AKDT, 9 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 19, 5:41 AM AKDT, 9 hours 12 minutes before

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
541 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
LOWS CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SEPARATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. TO THE SOUTH...A LARGE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SLOWLY WEAKENING IN PLACE IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
STRETCHES MERIDIONALLY OVER WESTERN ALASKA AROUND THE BACK END OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MAINLAND. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND. MEANWHILE JUST TO THE SOUTH... WARM MOIST AIR IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AHEAD OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
TWO AIRMASSES IS CREATING A REGION OF VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHCENTRAL COAST. THESE FEATURES
WILL ALL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN A SNOWFALL EVENT TODAY AS THE
COLD ARCTIC AIR INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL.

AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON THE RADAR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. FURTHER WEST...GUSTY NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THESE WINDS WILL HELP
TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR
ADVANCES UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT ARE SUPPORTING VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
STRETCHED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA...BUT FURTHER EAST THE BERING REMAINS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA ARE CONTINUING TO SEE SHOWERY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED OVER THE CHAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE HONING IN ON A BETTER TIMING
SOLUTION FOR THE SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY...RISING
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE MAIN EVENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
STARTING TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS THE GENERAL TREND THAT YESTERDAYS
LATER MODEL RUNS STARTED OF PUSHING THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS STILL REMAINING THE
LARGEST OUTLIER. THE NAM WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS IT
SEEMS TO BE BEST CAPTURING THE DYNAMICS AND MESOSCALE COMPONENTS
OF THE SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEST WHERE A LESS DYNAMIC
PATTERN IS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

OVERNIGHT...STEADY SNOW FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES HELPED TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS AT MID-
LEVELS...AND ALLOWING FOR BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATES A BAND OF
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS
HEAVIEST BAND IS LOCATED RIGHT IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE JET EXIT REGION. SNOW WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD...AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS BUILD IN BEHIND IT.

THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE STILL REMAINS FOR THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW THAT WILL FALL ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND PALMER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. WHILE THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATED QUITE DRY AIR
BY 700 MB...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING IN
PALMER AND PORTIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY
BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER ANCHORAGE.
ONCE MORE DOWNSLOPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR...AND ONCE THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WEST OF ANCHORAGE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN BOTH ANCHORAGE AND PALMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MIGRATES FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WIND CHILL VALUES
APPROACHING 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NORTH
WINDS PERSIST IN DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH
TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY ON SUNDAY...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND BRING SNOW TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES AS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF ADAK WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND DISSIPATING. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL BERING TO NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BERING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS THE MAINLAND LOW DROPS
INTO BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A WET PATTERN WILL ENSUE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
WESTERN GULF SENDS WEAK PULSES TO THE NORTH. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST REMAINS INTACT FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE DUE TO CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO MAIN UPPER LOWS FROM THE EASTERN
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE REMAINS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AS
IT COMPLETELY CHANGES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NAM AND GFS BEING THE PREFERRED
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXTENDED FORECASTS WILL
LIKELY STAY COMPLICATED NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY FROM UPPER LEVEL LOWS
FROM THE ARCTIC AND PACIFIC BEGIN AN ACTIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...141.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RSD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...TP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 19, 1:14 PM AKDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
114 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0104 PM     SNOW             1 NE PALMER             61.61N 149.09W
03/19/2016  M5.5 INCH                           AK   OTHER FEDERAL

            PALMER FLIGHT SERVICE. STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. STILL
            SNOWING ENTHUSIASTICALLY.

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 1:18 PM AKDT, 1 hour 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
118 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     SNOW             2 NE GIRDWOOD           60.96N 149.12W
03/19/2016  M2.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AT ALYESKA RESORT.

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 1:41 PM AKDT, 1 hour 12 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
141 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     SNOW             5 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.15N 149.83W
03/19/2016  M6.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 1:45 PM AKDT, 1 hour 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             5 ESE ANCHORAGE         61.20N 149.72W
03/19/2016  M7.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AS OF 1PM

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 2:16 PM AKDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
216 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     SNOW             3 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.17N 149.84W
03/19/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 2:46 PM AKDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
246 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     SNOW             4 ESE ANCHORAGE         61.20N 149.76W
03/19/2016  E6.8 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

JPW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 19, 3:39 AM AKDT	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFC	24 hr
Mar 19, 4:01 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFC	35 hr
Mar 19, 4:01 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	47 hr
Mar 19, 10:54 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	28 hr
Mar 19, 3:29 PM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFC	12 hr
Mar 19, 3:29 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	36 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016 Every small craft advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.