Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2016

Gale Warning 233, NWS Anchorage, AK

March 19, 2016

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Mar 19, 2016, 3:29 PM AKDT. It was in force for 12 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Mar 19, 2016, 3:29 PM AKDT (23:29 UTC)
Expired: Mar 20, 2016, 3:30 AM AKDT
In force: 12 hr
Issued by: NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

190 
FZAK62 PAFC 192329 CCA
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
329 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-201130-
329 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 50N 172W WILL DISSIPATE TO A TROUGH AND MOVE
SOUTH THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL
PERSIST OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA THROUGH MONDAY RESULTING IN
KEEPING THE OVERALL WIND FLOW REMAINING NORTHERLY THROUGH MONDAY.

$$

PKZ411-201130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
329 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.MON...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ412-201130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
329 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF
57N.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY N OF 57N.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 57N.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-201130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
329 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 55N.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-201130-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
329 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...
...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 56N.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Mar 19, 5:41 AM AKDT, 9 hours 48 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 19, 5:41 AM AKDT, 9 hours 48 minutes before

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
541 AM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A FAIRLY AMPLIFIED UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN IS IN PLACE WITH UPPER
LOWS CENTERED OVER THE ALASKA MAINLAND AND THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
SEPARATED BY A RIDGE OVER THE BERING SEA. TO THE SOUTH...A LARGE
VERTICALLY STACKED LOW IS SLOWLY WEAKENING IN PLACE IN THE NORTH
PACIFIC TO THE SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND. AN UPPER-LEVEL JET STREAK
STRETCHES MERIDIONALLY OVER WESTERN ALASKA AROUND THE BACK END OF
THE CLOSED LOW OVER THE MAINLAND. THIS NORTHERLY FLOW IS
TRANSPORTING AN ARCTIC AIRMASS SOUTHWARD TO THE SOUTHWESTERN
MAINLAND. MEANWHILE JUST TO THE SOUTH... WARM MOIST AIR IS
STREAMING NORTHWARD OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN
MAINLAND AHEAD OF THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW. THE INTERACTION OF THESE
TWO AIRMASSES IS CREATING A REGION OF VERY STRONG BAROCLINICITY
ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHCENTRAL COAST. THESE FEATURES
WILL ALL PLAY AN IMPORTANT ROLE IN A SNOWFALL EVENT TODAY AS THE
COLD ARCTIC AIR INTERACTS WITH THE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL.

AT THE SURFACE...PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH AN ADVANCING WARM
FRONT CAN BE SEEN ON THE RADAR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF COAST AND
THE PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND. FURTHER WEST...GUSTY NORTHERLY OFFSHORE
FLOW PREVAILS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND. THESE WINDS WILL HELP
TO MODERATE TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA AS COLD AIR
ADVANCES UNDER CLEAR SKIES...BUT ARE SUPPORTING VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS OVERNIGHT. THE REMAINS OF A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARE
STRETCHED OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS ALLOWING FOR SOME ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE AREA...BUT FURTHER EAST THE BERING REMAINS
UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA ARE CONTINUING TO SEE SHOWERY CONDITIONS AS MOISTURE IS
ADVECTED OVER THE CHAIN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE NORTH PACIFIC LOW.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

LATEST MODEL RUNS SEEM TO BE HONING IN ON A BETTER TIMING
SOLUTION FOR THE SNOW EVENT IN SOUTHCENTRAL TODAY...RISING
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING THE MAIN EVENT IN THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
STARTING TONIGHT. THIS SUPPORTS THE GENERAL TREND THAT YESTERDAYS
LATER MODEL RUNS STARTED OF PUSHING THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIPITATION LATER THAN PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THERE ARE STILL
DIFFERENCES IN QPF BETWEEN MODELS WITH THE GFS STILL REMAINING THE
LARGEST OUTLIER. THE NAM WAS USED FOR THE FORECAST PACKAGE AS IT
SEEMS TO BE BEST CAPTURING THE DYNAMICS AND MESOSCALE COMPONENTS
OF THE SYSTEM. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR
SOUTHCENTRAL AND ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE WEST WHERE A LESS DYNAMIC
PATTERN IS IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

OVERNIGHT...STEADY SNOW FELL ACROSS MUCH OF THE COPPER RIVER
BASIN AS BOTH UPPER LEVEL AND LOW LEVEL FEATURES HELPED TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. AN IMPRESSIVE BAROCLINIC ZONE IS AT MID-
LEVELS...AND ALLOWING FOR BROAD ISENTROPIC LIFT TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS. IR SATELLITE THIS MORNING INDICATES A BAND OF
MORE INTENSE PRECIPITATION IMPACTING THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS
HEAVIEST BAND IS LOCATED RIGHT IN THE FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION IN THE JET EXIT REGION. SNOW WILL SLOWLY
TAPER OFF FROM EAST TO WEST...AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONE CONTINUES TO
MOVE WESTWARD...AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS BUILD IN BEHIND IT.

THE GREATEST FORECAST CHALLENGE STILL REMAINS FOR THE AMOUNT OF
SNOW THAT WILL FALL ACROSS ANCHORAGE AND PALMER THIS EVENING INTO
SUNDAY. WHILE THE SOUNDING THIS MORNING INDICATED QUITE DRY AIR
BY 700 MB...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS HAVE OCCURRED THIS MORNING IN
PALMER AND PORTIONS OF THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. MAINLY LIGHT SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE DAY TODAY...WITH HEAVIER SNOW LIKELY
BY LATE THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET MOVES OVER ANCHORAGE.
ONCE MORE DOWNSLOPING WILL BE A LIMITING FACTOR...AND ONCE THE
SURFACE TROUGH MOVES WEST OF ANCHORAGE EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...PRESSURE GRADIENTS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR GAP WINDS AND
DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN BOTH ANCHORAGE AND PALMER.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ON A DOWNWARD TREND TODAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MIGRATES FROM THE CENTRAL INTERIOR TO THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
ACCOMPANIED BY MUCH COLDER AIR ALOFT...WITH DAYTIME HIGH
TEMPERATURES RUNNING 10 TO 15 DEGREES COLDER THAN FRIDAY FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION. THIS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO WIND CHILL VALUES
APPROACHING 20 BELOW ZERO THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS GUSTY NORTH
WINDS PERSIST IN DRY OFFSHORE FLOW. AS THE UPPER LOW DROPS SOUTH
TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY ON SUNDAY...AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH/FRONT
WILL PUSH ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND BRING SNOW TO INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF BRISTOL BAY AND THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. THIS WILL ALSO
BRING WARMER AIR...WITH TEMPERATURES RETURNING BACK TO SEASONAL
NORMAL VALUES AS THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK APPROACHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH SOUTH OF ADAK WILL KEEP PRECIPITATION
FOCUSED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS TODAY BEFORE MOVING INTO THE
NORTH PACIFIC AND DISSIPATING. BENIGN CONDITIONS WILL OTHERWISE
PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE CENTRAL BERING TO NEAR DUTCH HARBOR. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE BERING IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION AS THE MAINLAND LOW DROPS
INTO BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

A WET PATTERN WILL ENSUE MONDAY MORNING THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AS LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE
WESTERN GULF SENDS WEAK PULSES TO THE NORTH. THE LONG RANGE
FORECAST REMAINS INTACT FOR THE MORNING PACKAGE DUE TO CONTINUED
UNCERTAINTY OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS...WHICH HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
WITH THE INTERACTION OF THE TWO MAIN UPPER LOWS FROM THE EASTERN
BERING AND NORTH PACIFIC. THE REMAINS THE ECMWF IS THE OUTLIER AS
IT COMPLETELY CHANGES THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THE
END OF THE NEXT WEEK...WITH THE NAM AND GFS BEING THE PREFERRED
SOLUTIONS FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. EXTENDED FORECASTS WILL
LIKELY STAY COMPLICATED NEXT WEEK AS ENERGY FROM UPPER LEVEL LOWS
FROM THE ARCTIC AND PACIFIC BEGIN AN ACTIVE PATTERN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY...141.
MARINE...GALE WARNING...119 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...RSD
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...ELN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...TP

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 19, 1:18 PM AKDT, 2 hours 11 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
118 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1239 PM     SNOW             2 NE GIRDWOOD           60.96N 149.12W
03/19/2016  M2.0 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            NEW SNOW OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AT ALYESKA RESORT.

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 1:41 PM AKDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
141 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0139 PM     SNOW             5 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.15N 149.83W
03/19/2016  M6.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 1:45 PM AKDT, 1 hour 44 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
145 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0100 PM     SNOW             5 ESE ANCHORAGE         61.20N 149.72W
03/19/2016  M7.5 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

            AS OF 1PM

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 2:16 PM AKDT, 1 hour 13 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
216 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 PM     SNOW             3 SSE ANCHORAGE         61.17N 149.84W
03/19/2016  M5.0 INCH                           AK   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 2:46 PM AKDT, 43 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
246 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     SNOW             4 ESE ANCHORAGE         61.20N 149.76W
03/19/2016  E6.8 INCH                           AK   PUBLIC

            SOCIAL MEDIA REPORT.

&&

JPW

Local storm report, Mar 19, 3:24 PM AKDT, 5 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
324 PM AKDT SAT MAR 19 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0324 PM     SNOW             2 E WASILLA             61.58N 149.40W
03/19/2016  E6.9 INCH                           AK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL. 5 INCHES AS OF 1140AM.

&&

JPW

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 19, 3:39 AM AKDT	Heavy Freezing Spray Warning	AFC	24 hr
Mar 19, 4:01 AM AKDT	Gale Warning	AFC	35 hr
Mar 19, 4:01 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	47 hr
Mar 19, 10:54 AM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	28 hr
Mar 19, 2:53 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	37 hr
Mar 19, 3:29 PM AKDT	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	36 hr

Nearby

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016 Every gale warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.