Small Craft Advisory 14, NWS Anchorage, AK

058 
FZAK51 PAFC 041720
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050415-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.
$$


PKZ119-050415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-050415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-050415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-050415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-050415-
PORT VALDEZ-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-050415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-050415-
VALDEZ ARM-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-050415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-050415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ131-050415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-050415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ136-050415-
CHINIAK BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-050415-
MARMOT BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-050415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-050415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-050415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-050415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

737 
FZAK51 PAFC 041753 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050430-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ119-050430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-050430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-050430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-050430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-050430-
PORT VALDEZ-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-050430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-050430-
VALDEZ ARM-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-050430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-050430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ131-050430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-050430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ136-050430-
CHINIAK BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-050430-
MARMOT BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-050430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-050430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-050430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-050430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

717 
FZAK51 PAFC 042357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051230-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF REMAINS STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED 971 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAND
POINT MOVES INLAND FROM BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING AND DISSIPATES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ119-051230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ120-051230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ121-051230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-051230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-051230-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-051230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-051230-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-051230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-051230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-051230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ132-051230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 33 FT.

$$

PKZ136-051230-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ137-051230-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-051230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ139-051230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF ANCHOR POINT.
SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT N OF ANCHOR POINT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-051230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-051230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
410 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
STABLE UPPER PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE WITH A LONG-WAVE TROUGH OVER
THE BERING SEA AND NORTH PACIFIC WITH A DOWNSTREAM BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER THE EAST PACIFIC/WESTERN NORTH AMERICA. A LARGE DEEP MATURE
LOW HAS LARGELY STALLED APPROXIMATELY 700 MILES SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA...WITH A DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST.
A BUILDING SHORT-WAVE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OUT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM
(FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WESTWARD TO BRISTOL BAY) IS LEADING TO A
STRENGTHENING SOUTHEASTERLY JET STREAK. THIS JET IS DRIVING A LOW
LEVEL WARM FRONT (WITH ABUNDANT WARM AND MOIST AIR) NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA INTO BRISTOL BAY AND THE EASTERN
BERING SEA. THERE IS SOME SNOW FALLING RIGHT ON THE FRONT EDGE OF
PRECIP...BUT TEMPS ARE QUICKLY WARMING AND CHANGING PRECIP OVER TO
RAIN.

OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA SHOWERS HAVE LARGELY ENDED AS THE UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS IN AND THE ATMOSPHERE BEGINS TO STABILIZE. SHOWERS
ARE LINGERING IN A COUPLE OF UPSLOPE AREAS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AND THE WESTERN ALASKA RANGE (ON THE
WEST SIDE OF COOK INLET AND THE SUSITNA VALLEY). THE SOUTHEAST
WINDS OF THE PAST FEW DAYS HAVE LARGELY DIED DOWN WITH LOW LEVEL
FLOW BACKING TOWARD THE EAST (AND SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENTS
BECOMING FAVORABLE FOR NORTHERLY FLOW). MEANWHILE...ANOTHER WARM
FRONT OVER THE EAST PACIFIC (COMPLETELY SEPARATE FROM THE SYSTEM
ALREADY MENTIONED) IS LIFTING NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF
ALASKA.

CONDITIONS OVER THE CENTRAL TO WESTERN BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS
ARE QUITE BENIGN...WITH WEAK FEATURES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LONG-
WAVE TROUGH PRODUCING AREAS OF LIGHT PRECIP BUT VERY LITTLE IN
THE WAY OF WIND.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE GENERALLY REMAINS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
HANDLING OF LARGE SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THEY
HAVE ALL CONVERGED ON THE IDEA OF A WEAK CLOSED LOW FORMING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS ON MONDAY. THIS MAKES
SENSE WITH INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE ALASKA PENINSULA...COLD AIR ADVECTS DOWN THE
BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND WARM AIR CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD
ACROSS THE EASTERN TO NORTHERN BERING. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IS GENERALLY HIGH.

THE ONE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE A SERIES
OF WEAK FEATURES TRAVELING ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL
JET APPROACH THE AREA. MODEL SPREAD IS LARGE AND FORECAST
CONFIDENCE IS LOW...THOUGH THESE FEATURES WILL BE LOW IMPACT IN
NATURE.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE UPPER LEVELS HAVE AN AMPLIFIED RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST
PANHANDLE EXTENDING INTO THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AND TO THE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA. AS THE SKIES GRADUALLY
CLEAR OUT THIS WILL FAVOR FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVER THE
COPPER RIVER BASIN TONIGHT. DENSE FOG HAS ALREADY DEVELOPING OVER
THE VALDEZ REGION THIS EVENING BUT WILL TRANSITION TO PATCHY FOG
AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LIGHT NORTHEASTERLY WINDS HELP TO MIX OUT THE
DENSE FOG. A WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE BARREN ISLANDS
REGION TONIGHT AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH MONDAY. THIS WILL
PRODUCE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS RESULTING IN STORM FORCE
EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BARREN ISLANDS REGION AS WE HEAD INTO
MONDAY. THIS WILL BRING A WINTRY MIX ALONG THE KENAI PENINSULA
BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL RAIN AS THE FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY OVER
THE KENAI PENINSULA. THE INLAND AREAS WILL HAVE THE BEST CHANCE
FOR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION BEFORE CHANGING TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND NORTH OF CLAM GULCH WILL
HAVE DOWNSLOPE DRIER CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. THE TURNAGAIN ARM
AND HIGHER ELEVATIONS WILL SEE INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENTS
RESULTING IN GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY LATE MONDAY
MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT WEATHER FRONT MOVES INTO
THE REGION.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THROUGH TONIGHT...THE 966MB LOW ABOUT 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF COLD
BAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHWESTWARD AND ELONGATE ALONG THE
SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA COAST. MODELS HAVE BEEN IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE FOR THE LAST SEVERAL DAYS AND REMAIN
SO...THUS CONFIDENCE IN THE SHORT TERM FORECAST IS FAIRLY HIGH.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A DEEP SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT...BRINGING AMPLE
MOISTURE INTO THE REGION ALONG THE FRONT. RADAR AND SATELLITE DATA
THIS AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING THE INITIAL BAND OF PRECIPITATION
PUSHING THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND AND INTO THE YUKON DELTA.
OVER THE KUSKOKWIM COAST...PRECIPITATION HAS STARTED AS SNOW THIS
AFTERNOON AND WILL TRANSITION TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER MOST AREAS
THE FRONT MOVES NORTHWARD. TO THE SOUTH...PRECIPITATION WILL
REMAIN AS ALL RAIN ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY/UPPER AKPEN REGION. WINDS
WILL BE GUSTY OVERNIGHT AS THE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH...WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS ALONG THE BRISTOL BAY COAST AND THE KAMISHAK GAP.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. WITH
THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY ABOVE
NORMAL THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

BY TUESDAY MORNING...THE MAIN LOW CENTER WILL BE MOVING
NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE NORTHERN BERING AND THE FLOW OVER THE
REGION WILL BECOME WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY. COLDER AIR ADVECTING
AROUND THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO CHANGE THE PRECIPITATION TYPE FROM A
RAIN/SNOW MIX TO ALL SNOW...STARTING FROM THE KUSKOKWIM COAST
EARLY TUESDAY AND MOVING SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE MAIN FEATURE FOR THE BERING SEA OVER THE DAY 1-2 TIME FRAME IS
THE LOW SOUTHEAST OF COLD BAY. THIS LOW IS CURRENTLY BRINGING
SOLIDLY GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ALONG BRISTOL BAY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE WINDS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO SLOWLY DIMINISH
EARLY TUESDAY MORNING AS THE LOW ELONGATES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
ALASKA COAST. THE STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW
IS PRODUCING HIGH SEAS ON THE PACIFIC SIDE EAST OF UNALASKA. THESE
SEAS WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH TOMORROW.

THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR ST MATTHEW ISLAND BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL PUT MOST OF THE BERING SEA INTO A WEST TO
SOUTHERLY FLOW PATTERN WITH COOLER AIR ADVECTING IN OVER THE
REGION.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY MID-WEEK THE PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DOMINANT CENTER OF
ACTION OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. DOWNSTREAM...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND THE YUKON. A POLEWARD JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE ALASKA MAINLAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES WEST AND
WEAKENS AS THE DOMINANT CENTER OF ACTION RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE
SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS WILL HELP TO PULL THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WEST
AS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE ALASKA MAINLAND BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CONTINUED
WARM AND GENERALLY WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WHILE
THE WESTERN BERING AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW TRACK JUST TO THE EAST. TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. WITHIN
THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER...COLD INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
TOWARD THE GULF...DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST IN GENERALLY
FAST EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
TO GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION FROM LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY 131.
MARINE...STORM WARNING 130 131.
 GALE WARNING 119 120 125 132 136 137 138 139 150 155 160 165 170
172 174 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...SB
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...PD
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CC