Alert archive / Alaska / Small Craft Advisories in 2016

Small Craft Advisory 13, NWS Anchorage, AK

January 3, 2016

NWS Anchorage, AK issued this small craft advisory at Jan 3, 2016, 3:02 PM AKST. It was in force for 36 hr.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: Jan 3, 2016, 3:02 PM AKST (00:02 UTC)
Expired: Jan 5, 2016, 3:30 AM AKST
In force: 36 hr
Issued by: NWS Anchorage, AK

The text

As transmitted.

060 
FZAK51 PAFC 040002
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-041315-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES TO THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN
GULF OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS STATIONARY THROUGH MON NIGHT...THEN
DISSIPATES TUE. ANOTHER FRONT ENTERS THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF MON
NIGHT AND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF TUE.

$$

PKZ119-041315-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT...EXCEPT 12 FT
NEAR THE COAST. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-041315-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT...EXCEPT 13 FT
NEAR THE COAST. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-041315-
RESURRECTION BAY-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT BUILDING TO 4 FT...SEAS HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ125-041315-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING E 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT BUILDING TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-041315-
PORT VALDEZ-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. DENSE FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW
SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-041315-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3
FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-041315-
VALDEZ ARM-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-041315-
PASSAGE CANAL-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. GUSTS TO 35 KT NEAR WHITTIER. SEAS 5
FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-041315-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
15 FT BUILDING TO 19 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 FT SUBSIDING TO 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ131-041315-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...STORM WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT INCREASING TO 50 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
17 FT BUILDING TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 50 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 21
FT SUBSIDING TO 18 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-041315-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT...EXCEPT E 25 KT S OF DANGEROUS CAPE.
SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ136-041315-
CHINIAK BAY-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ137-041315-
MARMOT BAY-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.MON...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-041315-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND INCREASING TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8
FT SUBSIDING TO 5 FT. RAIN.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-041315-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT SUBSIDING TO 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-041315-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ141-041315-
KACHEMAK BAY-
302 PM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

4 follow-up statements

437 
FZAK51 PAFC 041208
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050115-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ119-050115-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-050115-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-050115-
RESURRECTION BAY-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. SNOW
AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-050115-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-050115-
PORT VALDEZ-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-050115-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-050115-
VALDEZ ARM-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-050115-
PASSAGE CANAL-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-050115-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ131-050115-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-050115-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ136-050115-
CHINIAK BAY-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-050115-
MARMOT BAY-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-050115-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-050115-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-050115-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-050115-
KACHEMAK BAY-
308 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

058 
FZAK51 PAFC 041720
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050415-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.
$$


PKZ119-050415-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-050415-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-050415-
RESURRECTION BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-050415-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-050415-
PORT VALDEZ-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-050415-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. 
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-050415-
VALDEZ ARM-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-050415-
PASSAGE CANAL-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 50 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-050415-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ131-050415-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-050415-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ136-050415-
CHINIAK BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-050415-
MARMOT BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-050415-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT. 
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-050415-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. 
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-050415-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT. 
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT. 
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-050415-
KACHEMAK BAY-
820 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN. 
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. 
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. 
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. 
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

737 
FZAK51 PAFC 041753 AAB
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

UPDATED ZONE 129

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-050430-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF WILL REMAIN STATIONARY AND DISSIPATE
LATE MON NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE GULF
THROUGH LATE TUE NIGHT.
$$

PKZ119-050430-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 40 KT BECOMING SE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
19 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
14 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ120-050430-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
13 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ121-050430-
RESURRECTION BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ125-050430-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN. 
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ126-050430-
PORT VALDEZ-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-050430-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.  
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-050430-
VALDEZ ARM-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ129-050430-
PASSAGE CANAL-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-050430-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ131-050430-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 50 KT DIMINISHING TO SE 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ132-050430-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 22 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

PKZ136-050430-
CHINIAK BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ137-050430-
MARMOT BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.WED...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-050430-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.WED...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.  
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ139-050430-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.  
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ140-050430-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.  
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
.WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.  
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ141-050430-
KACHEMAK BAY-
853 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.  
.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.  
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.  
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.  
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.  
.FRI...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

717 
FZAK51 PAFC 042357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051230-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF REMAINS STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED 971 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAND
POINT MOVES INLAND FROM BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING AND DISSIPATES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ119-051230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ120-051230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ121-051230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-051230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-051230-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-051230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-051230-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-051230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-051230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-051230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ132-051230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 33 FT.

$$

PKZ136-051230-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ137-051230-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-051230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ139-051230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF ANCHOR POINT.
SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT N OF ANCHOR POINT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-051230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-051230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this small craft advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this small craft advisory went out at Jan 3, 4:51 AM AKST, 10 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jan 3, 4:51 AM AKST, 10 hours 11 minutes before

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
451 AM AKST SUN JAN 3 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THOUGH THERE ARE SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN THE UPPER FLOW AS
INDIVIDUAL SYSTEMS MOVE ACROSS THE REGION...THE OVERALL PATTERN
REMAINS MOSTLY UNCHANGED WITH A DEEP ANCHOR LOW OVER THE NORTH
OKHOTSK SEA AND TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
PACIFIC...ALONG WITH A HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER WESTERN NORTH
AMERICA. UNDER THIS PATTERN THE TRACK OF THE PAST FEW STORMS HAS
BEEN NEARLY IDENTICAL FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC NORTH TO NORTHWEST
ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

SATELLITE IMAGERY DURING THE OVERNIGHT/EARLY MORNING HOURS SHOWS
THE LATEST SYSTEM PUSHING FURTHER NORTHWARD AND INLAND...LEAVING
SOME LINGERING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND
AS SEEN IN CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT WRAPPING
BACK IN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM A FAIRLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS PRESENT
OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA...SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...AND THE GULF OF
ALASKA. THIS IS CONTRIBUTING TO A FEW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
CONTINUING TO DEVELOP DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ALONG THE
NORTHERN GULF COAST...AND FAIRLY WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ENHANCED BY
SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST FACING MOUNTAINS IN UPSLOPE FLOW. SURFACE
PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN TIGHT ACROSS THE REGION...AND COMBINED
WITH THE INSTABILITY AND PRESSURE RISES BEHIND THE LOW...AREAS
OVER SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND CONTINUE TO REPORT
SOME LOCALIZED GUSTY WINDS. A RAPIDLY DEEPENING LOW IS CROSSING
THE NORTH CENTRAL PACIFIC WITH ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE IN THE
960S. THIS LOW HAS STARTED TO CURVE TO THE NORTHEAST AND IS
PUSHING INTO THE RIDGE HOLDING FAST OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.
THIS SYSTEM HAS ALREADY STARTED TO WEAKEN AS IT TURNS TOWARD THE
ALASKA PENINSULA...AND IS EXPECTED TO HAVE LESS OF AN IMPACT ON
THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS THAN THE PAST FEW
SYSTEMS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE IS IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE
FEATURES. THERE ARE SOME MINOR DIFFERENCES OUT AHEAD OF THE PACIFIC
STORM SYSTEM AS IT APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA...PRIMARILY
WITH THE WARM FRONT WHICH PUSHES NORTH AND WEST ACROSS THE EASTERN
BERING SEA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE GFS REMAINS AN OUTLIER IN
FORMING A CLOSED SURFACE LOW ALONG THIS FRONT AND PUSHING IT
NOTABLY FARTHER NORTHWEST INTO THE BERING SEA. THE NAM AND ECMWF
WERE THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST...SHOWING
A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FARTHER EAST AND PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN
BERING MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

SOUTHERLY FLOW ALOFT STILL REMAINS OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA TODAY.
THERE ARE RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA
AND ONSHORE. THERE IS ENOUGH INSTABILITY IN THE ATMOSPHERE TO
CAUSE A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST AS THE
TERRAIN ENHANCED LIFT IS JUST ENOUGH TO KICK OFF SOME STRIKES
RIGHT AS IT COMES ONSHORE. THIS WILL LIKELY END BY THIS AFTERNOON.
ANOTHER FRONT WILL MOVE TO THE NORTH GULF COAST MONDAY BUT THIS
ONE WILL BE A LITTLE DIFFERENT FROM THE ONES THE PAST THREE DAYS
AS IT WILL BRING MOST OF THE MOISTURE FARTHER WESTWARD. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER THE CHANCES OF BLOWING SNOW IN THOMPSON PASS
AS THE GREATEST AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION SHOULD OCCUR IN THE
EASTERN KENAI PENINSULA. AN UNCERTAINTY IN THE FORECAST IS THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG DEVELOPING. THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE FROM THE
RECENT RAINFALL COMBINED WITH WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STARTS TO BUILD IN IS A COMBINATION THAT IS
CONDUCIVE FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT. THE BIG MITIGATING FACTORS ARE THE
CLOUD COVER AND THE WINDS. THEREFORE THE COPPER RIVER BASIN IS THE
AREA MOST LIKELY TO SEE DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AS THERE SHOULD BE
ENOUGH CLEARING TO ALLOW EFFECTIVE COOLING AND A GOOD INVERSION TO
SET UP. AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL BUT IT IS FAR FROM A
CERTAINTY AT THIS POINT.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA WILL ELONGATE OUT ACROSS
THE EASTERN BERING TOWARD SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND THROUGH MONDAY.
THIS WILL LEAVE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST
ALASKA. THE HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SIDE
OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH MOSTLY RAIN ALONG THE ALEUTIAN RANGE BUT
SNOW FOR THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS. THE SOUTHERLY PUSH WILL CONTINUE
THE TREND OF MIXED PRECIPITATION WITH MUCH OF THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA
SEEING SNOW AND WITH MORE RAIN AROUND BRISTOL BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
THE LOW ELONGATING OUT ACROSS THE EASTERN BERING WILL KEEP
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REST OF THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS
THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE NORTHWEST FLOW
BUT THE MORE EASTERLY LOCATIONS WILL SEE SOME MIXING WITH RAIN DUE
TO THE WARM AIR BROUGHT UP BY THE STRETCHED OUT LOW.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN AND THE FORECAST REASONING IN THE
EXTENDED FORECAST LARGELY REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PAST FEW DAYS.
THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN AS A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC/BERING SEA
TROUGH WITH A CENTER OVER THE SEA OF OKHOTSK AND A LARGE RIDGE
RUNNING FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE MAIN CORE OF THE POLAR JET
WILL REMAIN IN GENERALLY THE SAME LOCATION ALONG 35-40N WITH A
WEAKER POLEWARD EXTENSION ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE
...WHICH WILL MEANDER OVER SOUTHCENTRAL/SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

ON DAY 3 /TUESDAY/...THE ELONGATED LOW ALONG THE SOUTHWEST ALASKA
COAST WILL CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NORTHERN BERING. THIS WILL KEEP
INITIALLY WARM AND WET CONDITIONS OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST. MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE...ALTHOUGH OF THE 00Z RUNS THE GFS
APPEARED TO BE A WESTWARD OUTLIER...THUS A COMBINATION OF THE NAM
AND ECMWF WAS USED WITH THE EXISTING FORECAST WITH A SLOW BLEND
INTO THE EC TO MATCH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...THE MAIN FORECAST
CHALLENGE REMAINS THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN UPPER 950S TO LOWER 960S
MB LOW ABOUT 300-400 NM SOUTH OF ADAK ON WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE
GFS AND EC ARE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THIS LOW...WITH
THE GFS FASTER AND SLIGHTLY WEAKER THAN THE EC. BOTH MODELS ARE
SHOWING A GENERAL TRACK INTO THE CENTRAL BERING BEFORE RECURVING
BACK TOWARDS RUSSIA BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE EXACT STRENGTH
AND TRACK OF THE LOW WILL BE KEY IN THE POTENTIAL IMPACTS. THE
EXTENDED FORECAST WAS GENERALLY A 50/50 BLEND OF WPC /WHICH USED
THE EC ENSEMBLES/ AND THE 12Z EC RUN. THIS FORECAST METHODOLOGY
BRINGS GALES TO MOST OF THE BERING SEA AS THE LOW MOVES
THROUGH....ALTHOUGH STORM FORCE WINDS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WITH
THIS LOW. CONFIDENCE IN THE DAY 4-7 FORECAST IS MEDIUM DUE TO THE
UNCERTAINTY WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS LOW.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
HYDRO...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY 121
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130-132 136-139 150 155 160 180.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EX
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...RF/DS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Jan 3, 3:02 PM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	12 hr
Jan 4, 3:08 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	24 hr
Jan 4, 3:21 AM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	3 days
Jan 4, 2:57 PM AKST	Gale Warning	AFC	13 hr
Jan 4, 2:57 PM AKST	Small Craft Advisory	AFC	13 hr

Nearby

Small Craft Advisories in Alaska, 2016 Every small craft advisory in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.