Gale Warning 38, NWS Anchorage, AK

Issued

Jan 4, 2016, 2:57 PM AKST (23:57 UTC)

Expired

Jan 5, 2016, 3:30 AM AKST

In force

13 hr

Issued by

NWS Anchorage, AK

717 
FZAK51 PAFC 042357
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-051230-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT IN THE CENTRAL GULF REMAINS STATIONARY AND DISSIPATES
BY LATE TONIGHT. AN ASSOCIATED 971 MB LOW 60 NM SOUTHWEST OF SAND
POINT MOVES INLAND FROM BRISTOL BAY TUE MORNING AND DISSIPATES.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE GULF TUE AFTERNOON THROUGH WED.

$$

PKZ119-051230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.

$$

PKZ120-051230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 27 FT.

$$

PKZ121-051230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF
CAINES HEAD. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-051230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6
FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-051230-
PORT VALDEZ-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING NE 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-051230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-051230-
VALDEZ ARM-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-051230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-051230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ131-051230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING SW LESS 
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 29 FT.

$$

PKZ132-051230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 24 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 33 FT.

$$

PKZ136-051230-
CHINIAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.FRI THROUGH SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ137-051230-
MARMOT BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 9 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ138-051230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING S 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...E WIND 40 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.FRI...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ139-051230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TUESDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT...EXCEPT NE 15 KT N OF ANCHOR POINT.
SEAS 7 FT...EXCEPT 4 FT N OF ANCHOR POINT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 4
FT SUBSIDING.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-051230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...NE WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS
2 FT.
.WED NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-051230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
257 PM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...SE WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED AND WED NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Jan 4, 4:49 AM AKST, 10 hours 8 minutes earlier.

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
449 AM AKST MON JAN 4 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
A BLOCKING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS DOMINATED THE AREA FOR A
WEEK PERSISTS OVER MUCH OF EASTERN ALASKA AND THE GULF THIS
MORNING. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW CENTERED NEAR THE SEA OF OKHOTSK ALSO
REMAINS STATIONARY...WITH A PERSISTENT TROUGH EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE UPPER LOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE BERING AND
ALEUTIANS. THIS SETUP IS ALLOWING FOR FREQUENT INCURSIONS OF WARM
AIR FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN ALASKA. EQUATORIAL WARM
AIR IN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE SIBERIAN COLD AIR IS CAUSING THE JET
OVER THE WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC TO BECOME HYPERACTIVE...DRIVING
STORM AFTER STORM EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN PACIFIC. AS OBSERVED
OVER THE PAST WEEK...EACH SYSTEM (INCLUDING THE CURRENT SYSTEM
APPROACHING THE ALASKA PENINSULA) HAS APPROACHED THE STEADFAST
BLOCKING RIDGE AND HAS MADE A SHARP LEFT TURN TO THE NORTH...
EVENTUALLY ENDING UP IN THE EASTERN BERING.

WARM LOW LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW IS LARGELY KEEPING RAIN SHOWER
ACTIVITY CONFINED TO THE UPSLOPE SIDES OF THE VARIOUS RANGES
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND EARLY THIS MORNING...AS DOWNSLOPING
LARGELY KEEPS AREAS ON THE LEEWARD SIDE DRY. MOST OBSERVATION
STATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND ARE REPORTING TEMPERATURES
ABOVE FREEZING...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN...
NORTHERN SUSITNA VALLEY...AND THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. DRIER AND
SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COOK INLET REGION...ALLOWING TEMPS TO DIP INTO THE 20S
ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. OVERCAST SKIES REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
MOST AREAS WEST OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN AS UNIMPEDED SOUTHERLY
FLOW DRAWS ABUNDANT MOISTURE OVER SOUTHCENTRAL. AS THE SURFACE LOW
APPROACHES THE SOUTHERN END OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS UP SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA...GUSTY WINDS
HAVE STARTED TO PICK BACK UP OVER MUCH OF THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND.
THE MOST NOTABLE OBSERVATIONS OF THESE GUSTY WINDS ARE GENERALLY
SURROUNDING THE AREAS ALONG THE ALEUTIAN/ALASKA RANGES...COOK
INLET...AND THE AREAS SURROUNDING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. OVER
THE BERING AND ALEUTIANS...COLD AIR IN PLACE ALOFT OVER THE
RELATIVELY WARMER WATERS OF THE BERING IS KEEPING A SHOWERY
WEATHER REGIME IN PLACE...WITH ONLY WEAK FEATURES MOVING THROUGH
THE FLOW UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE FORECAST MODELS REMAIN IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH HANDLING
OF THE SYNOPTIC SCALE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. THEY
HAVE ALL COME INTO AGREEMENT WITH A WEAK CLOSED LOW FORMING ALONG
THE WARM FRONT EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS BY MID DAY AND PUSHING
INTO THE NORTHERN BERING BY TONIGHT. THIS MAKES SENSE WITH
INCREASING BAROCLINICITY AS THE PARENT LOW LIFTS NORTHWARD
CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA...COLD AIR ADVECTS DOWN THE BACK
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM AND WARM AIR CONTINUES NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE
EASTERN TO NORTHERN BERING. THUS...FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS
GENERALLY HIGH. ONE EXCEPTION TO THE GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT IS OVER
THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS WHERE A SERIES OF WEAK FEATURES TRAVELING
ALONG THE NORTH PACIFIC SUBTROPICAL JET APPROACH THE AREA. MODEL
SPREAD IS LARGE AND FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW...THOUGH THESE
FEATURES WILL BE LOW IMPACT IN NATURE. THE SECOND AND MORE
IMPACTFUL EXCEPTION TO THIS IS A SYSTEM DEVELOPING WELL SOUTH OF
SHEMYA ON TUESDAY...AND RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING AS IT APPROACHES THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE GLOBAL MODELS SEEM TO
BE COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE PLACEMENT AND STRENGTH OF
THIS SYSTEM...WHERE THE NAM IS A MUCH SLOWER AND WEAKER SOLUTION.
HOWEVER...FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM...GIVEN THE CURRENT MODEL SPREAD BETWEEN THE GLOBAL MODELS
AND THE HIGHER RESOLUTION NAM. WITH THE NAM BEING THE CURRENT
OUTLIER...THE EC/GFS WERE THE PREFERRED SOLUTIONS REGARDING THIS
SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

THE FRONT IN THE GULF HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY AS IT PUSHES
AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL HIGH OVER WESTERN CANADA AND THE ALCAN
BORDER. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT
DAY BUT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING PRECIPITATION OVER THE EASTERN
KENAI PENINSULA TO KODIAK ISLAND. PRECIPITATION OVER KODIAK ISLAND
WILL REMAIN ALL RAIN. THE KENAI PENINSULA WILL ALSO BE MOSTLY RAIN
BUT INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY TURNAGAIN PASS AND HIGHER
ELEVATIONS...WILL SEE SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS. FOG DEVELOPMENT IS
LIKELY OVER THE COPPER RIVER BASIN UNDER CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A LOW NEAR THE ALASKA PENINSULA IS ELONGATING OUT ACROSS THE
EASTERN BERING TOWARD SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND. THIS WILL KEEP THE
WARM SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST ALASKA INTO EARLY TUESDAY
WITH MORE SNOW NEAR THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA BUT WITH MORE RAIN AROUND
BRISTOL BAY. HOWEVER...MOST PRECIPITATION WILL BE ALONG THE COAST
OR ALONG THE SOUTH FACING SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ON TUESDAY THE
LOW WILL CONSOLIDATE IN THE NORTHERN BERING AND MOVE NORTH. FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE COLD AND SOUTHWESTERLY WITH THIS TRANSITION
BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOW TO THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
WITH THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING...NORTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN BERING AND ALEUTIANS. THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY GIVE WAY
LATE TUESDAY AS A NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE CENTRAL
ALEUTIANS. THIS STRONG SYSTEM WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE AREA
AS WELL AS HEAVIER PRECIPITATION. THERE LOOKS TO BE ENOUGH OF A
WARM PUSH FOR MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION FOR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS
TO SWITCH OVER TO RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BY MID-WEEK THE PATTERN WILL BE DEFINED BY A DOMINANT CENTER OF
ACTION OVER THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA IN THE FORM OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW. DOWNSTREAM...A STOUT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE REMAINS OVER WESTERN
CANADA AND THE YUKON. A POLEWARD JET STREAM WILL CONTINUE OVER
THE ALASKA MAINLAND ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE.

A STRENGTHENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING WEDNESDAY...THEN RETROGRADES WEST AND
WEAKENS AS THE DOMINANT CENTER OF ACTION RETROGRADES WEST INTO THE
SEA OF OKHOTSK. THIS WILL HELP TO PULL THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE WEST
AS WELL TO THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EXTENDING NORTH-NORTHWEST
THROUGH THE ALASKA MAINLAND BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE PRIMARY IMPACTS FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL BE CONTINUED
WARM AND GENERALLY WET CONDITIONS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA...WHILE
THE WESTERN BERING AS WELL AS WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WILL
BE COOLER THAN NORMAL WITH INCREASED CHANCES OF SNOW ON THE BACK
SIDE OF THE MAIN LOW TRACK JUST TO THE EAST. TOWARD SOUTHCENTRAL
ALASKA...A BENIGN WEATHER PATTERN WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF WITH
WARMER TEMPERATURES ALOFT AS UPPER RIDGING BUILDS OVERHEAD. WITHIN
THE VALLEYS...HOWEVER...COLD INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY ALLOW SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN A BIT CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR MOST AREAS.
TOWARD THE GULF...DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE EAST TO WEST IN GENERALLY
FAST EASTERLY FLOW...WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR WIDESPREAD SMALL CRAFT
TO GALE-FORCE WINDS OVER MUCH OF THIS REGION FROM LATE THIS WEEK
INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
HYDRO...SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY 121
MARINE...STORMS 130 131.
         GALES 119 120 139 150 155 172 174.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...JW/TP
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EZ
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...DK
LONG TERM...CC

Gale Warnings in Alaska, 2016Every gale warning in 2016

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.