Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 21, NWS Anchorage, AK

240 
FZAK52 PAFC 240010
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-241245-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...

A 975 MB LOW 200 NM SOUTH OF ATKA WILL MOVE TO 210 NM SOUTHEAST OF
ATKA AT 977 MB AND THEN DISSIPATE LATE TONIGHT. A 968 MB LOW 120
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT WILL MOVE INTO BRISTOL BAY AT 978 MB
SUN MORNING AND DISSIPATES. A NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE TO 370
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT AT 951 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON...THEN MOVES
TO 85 NM EAST OF SAND POINT AT 957 MB MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-241245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT.
RAIN.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SE IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 45 KT. SEAS 19 FT. RAIN.
.MON...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 35 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT.

$$

PKZ155-241245-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN...NE WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 16 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ160-241245-
BRISTOL BAY-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. FREEZING
SPRAY IN THE EVENING.
.SUN...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING SE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 4 FT
SUBSIDING. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 6 FT. RAIN.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ165-241245-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT BUILDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.MON...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ170-241245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ171-241245-
UNALASKA BAY-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-241245-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ173-241245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ174-241245-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.

$$

PKZ175-241245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-241245-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ177-241245-
ADAK TO KISKA-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ178-241245-
KISKA TO ATTU-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.SUN...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ179-241245-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.

$$

PKZ180-241245-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG. SNOW AND RAIN. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-241245-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. PATCHY
FOG. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. SNOW
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ185-241245-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
310 PM AKST SAT JAN 23 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SUN...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.MON...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.THU...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
429 PM AKST FRI JAN 22 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...

A RATHER WEAK PATTERN IS CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE STATE OF
ALASKA...WITH A BROAD LOW THAT STRETCHES ACROSS THE BERING...AND A
WEAK UPPER LOW CENTERED IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. A FEW UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES ARE ROTATING THROUGH THE GULF OF ALASKA...AND
SUPPORTING LIGHT SHOWERS ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND TODAY. THE
UPPER LEVEL JET IS LOCATED WELL TO THE SOUTH IN THE PACIFIC...AND
PROVIDING LITTLE SUPPORT FOR THE INTENSIFICATION OF EITHER LOW
AND ALSO IS NOT TAPPING INTO A RICH MOISTURE SUPPLY. AT THE
SURFACE...A DISSIPATING LOW IS CENTERED IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA...WHILE A MORE ORGANIZED LOW IS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF THE
CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. AN ASSOCIATED FRONT IS CURRENTLY APPROACHING
THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS BUT IS DISSIPATING AND STALLING.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...

IN THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE NORTHWEST
TRAJECTORY OF A NORTH PACIFIC LOW TRACKING SOUTH OF KODIAK ISLAND AND
ACROSS THE AKPEN. THE CANADIAN MODEL CONTINUES TO TRACK THE LOW
NORTH OF KODIAK...AND IS AN OUTLIER. AS A RESULT...A BLEND OF THE
GFS AND ECMWF WAS FAVORED FOR THE SHORT TERM. IN THE MEDIUM TO
LONG TERM...MODELS REMAIN IN ABOVE AVERAGE AGREEMENT AS A NORTH
PACIFIC LOW RAPIDLY DEVELOPS AND PROGRESSES TOWARDS THE ALASKA
PENINSULA BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

MULTIPLE WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTERS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA ARE
ROTATING AROUND THE SUPPORTING UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH AN OVERALL
TRAJECTORY TOWARD THE NORTH GULF COAST THROUGH TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THE JET REMAINS SOUTH OF THE GULF THEN TURNS NORTH INTO
THE EASTERN GULF AND THIS WILL SERVE TO HOLD THE WARM MOIST FLOW
OVER THE SOUTHERN MAINLAND. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN RAIN ALONG
THE COAST WITH A TRANSITION TO SNOW INLAND AND AT HIGHER
ELEVATION ON THE GULF SIDE MOUNTAINS. THE CROSS BARRIER FLOW OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WILL RESULT IN THE TYPICAL DOWN SLOPE DRYING SERVING
TO MINIMIZE PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS ON THE LEE SIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. COLD ADVECTION OUT OF THE COPPER RIVER BASIN WILL HELP
MAINTAIN STRONGER WINDS THROUGH THOMPSON PASS. THE LACK OF
TRANSPORTABLE SNOW ELIMINATES THE CONCERN FOR ANY SIGNIFICANT
REDUCTIONS TO VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A SERIES OF NORTH PACIFIC LOWS WILL LIFT NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY...BRINGING AN END TO THE DRY
OFFSHORE FLOW PATTERN. THE FIRST SYSTEM WILL MOVE IN
TONIGHT...SPREADING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
BEFORE IT LIFTS NORTHWARD...BECOMING MORE SCATTERED AS IT TRACKS
INTO THE DELTA AND LOWER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT...BUT LOCALIZED BANDING ALONG THE ALASKA
PENINSULA THIS EVENING MAY RESULT IN LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. A
STRONGER LOW WITH WARMER AIR WILL MOVE IN SATURDAY EVENING AND
SUNDAY...BRINGING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW. SOUTHEAST FLOW IN THE
LOWER LEVELS WILL TEND TO RESULT IN A DOWNSLOPE PATTERN SO
PRECIPITATION WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY HEAVY OR CONCENTRATED AND
WILL FAVOR LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

WITH A BROAD LOW OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS AND A GENERAL EAST TO
NORTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW...RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS. WEAK LOWS FORMING
ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL SUPPORT INCREASING SHOWER
THREATS OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS...WHILE A STRONGER AND MORE
ORGANIZED GALE FORCE LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN ALEUTIANS ON
SATURDAY...WITH ANOTHER GALE FORCE LOW MOVING IN SUNDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE EXTENDED FORECAST LOOKS LIKE A RINSE AND REPEAT OF THE PATTERN
WE HAVE BEEN IN OVER THE PAST COUPLE MONTHS NOW. THE JET STREAM
REMAINS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS WITH THE PREDOMINANT
STORM TRACK CONTINUING TO BE SOUTH OF THE CHAIN...BENDING INTO THE
GULF. A DISTURBANCE IN THE FLOW WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE INTO THE
GULF AS A STRONG/COMPACT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TOWARD THE ALASKA
PENINSULA/KODIAK ISLAND AREA. THE ATTENDANT FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
THE NORTHERN GULF ON MONDAY BRINGING RAIN TO COASTAL AREAS WITH
SNOW AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...BUT THE SYSTEM AS A WHOLE WILL BE
WEAKENING AT THIS POINT.

A STRONGER EXTENSION OF THE EAST ASIAN JET WILL PUSH ACROSS THE
PACIFIC LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER LOW CENTER WILL COME
ALONG FOR THE RIDE AND SHIFT INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE SYSTEM
WILL DO MOST OF ITS STRENGTHENING WELL SOUTH OF THE GULF...SENDING
A FRONT TOWARD THE SOUTHCENTRAL TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN RIGHT AROUND NORMAL WITH BELOW NORMAL
PRECIPITATION FOR INLAND AREAS AND OCCASIONAL PRECIPITATION ALONG
THE COAST. WINDS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY LIGHT INLAND WITH A COUPLE
GALE FORCE FRONTS THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...GALES 119 120 130 131 132.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EN
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...SA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...JA
LONG TERM...ML