Alert archive / Alaska / Gale Warnings in 2016
Gale Warning 684, NWS Anchorage, AK
NWS Anchorage, AK issued this gale warning at Nov 30, 2016, 3:34 AM AKST. It was in force for 48 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Nov 30, 2016, 3:34 AM AKST (12:34 UTC)
- Expired
- Dec 2, 2016, 3:57 AM AKST
- In force
- 48 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Anchorage, AK
The text
As transmitted.
119 FZAK62 PAFC 301234 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 334 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-010230- 334 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 970 MB LOW AT 53N 173W MOVES TO 56N 158W THU MORNING AND BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A NORTH PACIFIC LOW. A 1008 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 55N 170E TONIGHT AND MOVES TO 55N 178W AT 1016 MB LATE THU NIGHT. $$ PKZ411-010230- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 334 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. .TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .THU...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .THU NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .FRI THROUGH SAT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. $$ PKZ412-010230- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 334 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...NE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. .TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. .THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .SUN...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. $$ PKZ413-010230- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 334 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...NE WIND 35 TO 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 26 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. .THU...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .THU NIGHT...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. .FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. .SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ414-010230- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 334 AM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY... .TODAY...NE WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS. .TONIGHT...N WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. .THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. .SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. $$
4 follow-up statements
517 FZAK62 PAFC 010036 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 336 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-011400- 336 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 980 MB LOW AT 55N 163W BECOMES ABSORBED INTO A NORTH PACIFIC LOW THU. A 1008 MB LOW DEVELOPS NEAR 57N 171E TONIGHT AND MOVES TO 58N 172W AT 1014 MB BY FRI AFTERNOON. A FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI AFTERNOON. $$ PKZ411-011400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 336 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .THU...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. .THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 9 FT. .FRI...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 14 TO 18 FT. .MON...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. $$ PKZ412-011400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 336 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 .TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. .THU NIGHT...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SNOW. .FRI...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .SUN...S WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. $$ PKZ413-011400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 336 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 ...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. .THU...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .THU NIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. .FRI...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 14 FT. $$ PKZ414-011400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 336 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH THURSDAY... .TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. .THU...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .THU NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. .FRI...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. .FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. .SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. .MON...SW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. $$
140 FZAK62 PAFC 011250 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-020245- 350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 56N 171E MOVES TO 58N 178W AT 1006 MB LATE TONIGHT...THEN TO 57N 161W AT 1018 MB LATE FRI NIGHT. A FRONT APPROACHES THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS FRI MORNING AND MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS BY FRI NIGHT. $$ PKZ411-020245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT... .TODAY...S WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. .FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT BECOMING S 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. .SAT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 19 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 18 FT. .MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. $$ PKZ412-020245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 .TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SNOW. .FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .FRI NIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .SAT THROUGH SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. $$ PKZ413-020245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 ...GALE WARNING FRIDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. SNOW. .FRI...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .SAT THROUGH SUN...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. $$ PKZ414-020245- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 350 AM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 ...GALE WARNING TODAY... .TODAY...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. .FRI...W WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SNOW. .FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .SAT THROUGH SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. $$
351 FZAK62 PAFC 020042 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-021400- 342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 57N 173E WILL MOVE TO 55N 163W AT 1020 MB FRI NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SAT. $$ PKZ411-021400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 ...STORM WARNING FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 10 TO 17 FT. .FRI...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 8 TO 15 FT. .FRI NIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN. .SAT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 11 TO 17 FT. .MON...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. $$ PKZ412-021400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY... .TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW. .FRI...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING NW 15 TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. .FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. .TUE...NE WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. $$ PKZ413-021400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 ...GALE WARNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT... .TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. .FRI...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING S 25 TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .SAT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT. .MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .TUE...SW WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. $$ PKZ414-021400- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 342 PM AKST THU DEC 1 2016 .TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. .FRI...S TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SNOW. .FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .SAT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .SUN...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. .MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .TUE...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. $$
849 FZAK62 PAFC 021257 OFFALU OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK 357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016 OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT. PKZ499-030130- 357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016 .SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA... A 1008 MB LOW NEAR 58N 177W WILL MOVE TO 55N 159W AT 1020 MB LATE FRI NIGHT AND THEN DISSIPATE. A STRONG WEATHER FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA FRI AFTERNOON AND MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING SEA SAT. $$ PKZ411-030130- BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL DATELINE- 357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016 ...STORM WARNING TONIGHT AND SATURDAY... .TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN AND SNOW. .SAT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 20 FT. .SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. $$ PKZ412-030130- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N- 357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016 ...STORM WARNING SATURDAY... .TODAY...SW TO NW WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. .TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT BECOMING E 10 TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. .SAT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT INCREASING TO 35 TO 50 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT BUILDING TO 9 TO 17 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT. .SUN...S WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. .MON...W WIND UP TO 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. .TUE...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. $$ PKZ413-030130- BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N- 357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016 ...STORM WARNING SATURDAY... .TODAY...W WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .TONIGHT...W WIND 20 TO 35 KT BECOMING SE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .SAT...S WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT. RAIN. .SAT NIGHT...S WIND 30 TO 45 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT. .SUN...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 16 FT. .MON THROUGH TUE...W WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT. $$ PKZ414-030130- BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W- 357 AM AKST FRI DEC 2 2016 .TODAY...SW TO NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT. SNOW. .TONIGHT...N TO W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. .SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. .SAT NIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT. .SUN...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. .MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 TO 12 FT. $$
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this gale warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this gale warning went out at Nov 29, 4:11 PM AKST, 11 hours 23 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Nov 29, 4:11 PM AKST, 11 hours 23 minutes before
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKST Tue Nov 29 2016
.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The large upper level low remains over the Arctic Ocean northwest
of Barrow. A trough extends southeast from the low over the
mainland part of the state and into the northeast Gulf of Alaska
where it is interacting with a strong surface low in that area.
This strong low combined with high pressure over the interior of
the state is producing strong outflow winds along the north Gulf
Coast and Prince William Sound.
A second trough extends over the central Bering Sea where it meets
up with a surface low located a little southwest of Adak this
afternoon. This low will elongate as it heads east-northeast
through tomorrow night.
&&
.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Like yesterday, the models are in good agreement with the synoptic
scale elements but there are still some more subtle differences
that will impact the forecast. This has been the case with the low
in the northeast Gulf which has tracked slightly farther eastward
than expected which pushed the snowfall along the north Gulf
Coast and Copper River Basin farther eastward today. The biggest
issue for the region will be the way the low, which is currently
in the ALeutians, elongates over the northwest Gulf of Alaska
Wednesday and Wednesday night. While it is a small difference, the
amount the warm front pushes to the northwest over the Kenai/Chugach
Mountains and into Cook Inlet is a key factor. The ECMWF and GFS
models push the front into Cook Inlet which will put the main area
of snowfall over the Inlet and Northwestward. The NAM and most
recent Canadian model run stall it out over the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains putting the snowfall over the Kenai Peninsula and
northward toward Anchorage.
&&
.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the
night.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An impressive storm force Gulf low is moving inland toward the
ALCAN this evening but will rapidly weaken through the remainder
of evening. Strong offshore coastal pressure gradients will
rapidly weaken...along with associated gap winds. There is some
blowing snow along with very light falling snow through Thompson
Pass, but with the sharp drop-off in winds expected, any
significant blowing snow conditions will rapidly diminish this
evening. Otherwise, another cold night is in store as arctic air
remains entrenched and skies clear tonight. A fast moving warm
front will then quickly track toward the North Gulf Coast
tomorrow, bringing easterly coastal winds and coastal rain/snow.
With the front stalling along the coast, downslope flow will
remain mostly dominant across inland locations, but it will
remain cold enough for all snow, most of which will be rather
light and sporadic west of the Chugach Mountains/Kenai Mountains.
Closer to the coast, snow will quickly change to rain or a
rain/snow mix as the front moves inland, but places along the
coast such as Cordova may experience a brief burst of moderate
snow along with strong east-southeast winds before changing over
in the evening. For Valdez and Thompson Pass, snow may be heavy
at times through Thursday, with the possibility of periodic
changeovers to rain in Valdez Thursday night and Friday.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The ridge across north central Alaska remains stationary as low
pressure pushes across the Western Aleutian chain to the Alaska
Peninsula Wednesday afternoon. This approaching system tightens
the pressure gradient between the two systems which increases
winds tonight, mainly for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Western
Capes. Gusty conditions persist through Thursday morning and then
tapers down as the surface low slips southeast of the Alaska
Peninsula. A front moving ahead of the Aleutian surface low brings
increased chances for snow along the Aleutian Range Wednesday and
into Thursday. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail under offshore
flow across the Southwest.
&&
.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure along the Central Aleutians moves a gusty gale force
front across the central Bering this evening with the eastward
edge of the boundary progressing across the Alaska Peninsula. The
surface low center pushing the front tracks due east across the
Central Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday, then takes
a southeast turn toward the Gulf early Thursday. An unsettled
weather pattern continues for the Bering on Thursday as an upper
level disturbance dives from Kamchatka and another surface front
moves into the Western Aleutian chain.
&&
.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Fri through Tue)...
There is growing confidence that some snow could reach inland to
the Cook Inlet Region late Thu into early Fri. Another low will
develop along the polar jet axis down over the Gulf of AK. This
low will then wrap some more moisture over areas from the Kenai
Peninsula through the Matanuska Valley. While it certainly does
not look like much in the way of accumulation at this time on
the lee side of the Chugach, any mention of snow in this very dry
pattern is note-worthy. The set-up is quite convoluted, which
only further muddles the details.
Beyond the late week snow threat, be prepared for the coldest
temperatures of the season this weekend. As the aforementioned
low moves toward SE AK, some more energy will dive from the Seward
Peninsula into the base of the longwave trough over the Gulf.
Then a ridge building over the Bering will serve to reinforce
very cold, dry air moving over the AK Range and into Southcentral
AK. Clouds could help to keep the bottom from falling out, but
skies should clear by Mon allowing for the coldest morning of the
2016 winter.
The cold air will also help to usher in some impressive outflow
winds. Typical places like Thompson Pass, Whittier, and the Copper
River Delta could see very strong gusts. But gaps along the AK
Range will likely see the strongest winds with gusts approaching
hurricane-force as they blast into Shelikof Strait.
&&
.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131.
Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 129 140 160 180 181.
Gale Warning 119 120 125 130 131 138 139 150 155 160 165
170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185.
&&
SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MOThe office that day
Everything else NWS Anchorage, AK issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 29, 3:12 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 36 hr | |
| Nov 29, 3:12 PM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 49 hr | |
| Nov 29, 3:29 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 4 days | |
| Nov 29, 3:29 PM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 29, 3:37 PM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 3 days | |
| Nov 30, 3:34 AM AKST | Gale Warning | AFC | 12 hr | |
| Nov 30, 3:34 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 49 hr | |
| Nov 30, 3:53 AM AKST | Small Craft Advisory | AFC | 23 hr | |
| Nov 30, 3:53 AM AKST | Storm Warning | AFC | 12 hr |
Nearby
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.