Storm Warning 179, NWS Anchorage, AK

750 
FZAK51 PAFC 010031
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-011345-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...
A FRONT OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WILL WEAKEN IN PLACE THROUGH
TONIGHT. A BROAD NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF
LATE THU EVENING AND MOVE INLAND NEAR 75 NM SOUTHEAST OF YAKUTAT 
FRI AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ119-011345-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. NEAR THE COAST...SE WIND 45 KT
DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 13 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ120-011345-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ121-011345-
RESURRECTION BAY-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 3 FT SUBSIDING. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING N IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT
BECOMING 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON...HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
SNOW.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. HIGHER SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ125-011345-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT BECOMING 3 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ126-011345-
PORT VALDEZ-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT BECOMING 2 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ127-011345-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT BECOMING NE 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ128-011345-
VALDEZ ARM-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ129-011345-
PASSAGE CANAL-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...E WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-011345-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 15 FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.THU...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 14 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 50 KT. SEAS 23 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 60 KT. SEAS 25 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ131-011345-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...W WIND 15 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 FT. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NW 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ132-011345-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT. RAIN SHOWERS AND 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.THU...SW WIND 20 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 14 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT INCREASING TO 40 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 13 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ136-011345-
CHINIAK BAY-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 50 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ137-011345-
MARMOT BAY-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT BECOMING N 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. 
SNOW SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ138-011345-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...GALE WARNING THURSDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT BECOMING N 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW SHOWERS.
.THU NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT INCREASING TO 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.FRI...NW WIND 45 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 55 KT. SEAS 19 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-011345-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 35 KT BECOMING N 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 13 FT SUBSIDING TO 6 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ140-011345-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TONIGHT...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...N WIND 25 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 8 FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-011345-
KACHEMAK BAY-
331 PM AKST WED NOV 30 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT BECOMING N 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.THU...N WIND 10 KT BECOMING NE 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 2 FT.
.THU NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT. FREEZING SPRAY. SNOW.
.FRI...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
411 PM AKST Tue Nov 29 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
The large upper level low remains over the Arctic Ocean northwest
of Barrow. A trough extends southeast from the low over the
mainland part of the state and into the northeast Gulf of Alaska
where it is interacting with a strong surface low in that area.
This strong low combined with high pressure over the interior of
the state is producing strong outflow winds along the north Gulf
Coast and Prince William Sound.

A second trough extends over the central Bering Sea where it meets
up with a surface low located a little southwest of Adak this
afternoon. This low will elongate as it heads east-northeast
through tomorrow night.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
Like yesterday, the models are in good agreement with the synoptic
scale elements but there are still some more subtle differences
that will impact the forecast. This has been the case with the low
in the northeast Gulf which has tracked slightly farther eastward
than expected which pushed the snowfall along the north Gulf
Coast and Copper River Basin farther eastward today. The biggest
issue for the region will be the way the low, which is currently
in the ALeutians, elongates over the northwest Gulf of Alaska
Wednesday and Wednesday night. While it is a small difference, the
amount the warm front pushes to the northwest over the Kenai/Chugach
Mountains and into Cook Inlet is a key factor. The ECMWF and GFS
models push the front into Cook Inlet which will put the main area
of snowfall over the Inlet and Northwestward. The NAM and most
recent Canadian model run stall it out over the Kenai and Chugach
Mountains putting the snowfall over the Kenai Peninsula and
northward toward Anchorage.

&&

.AVIATION...
PANC...VFR conditions and light winds will persist through the
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
An impressive storm force Gulf low is moving inland toward the
ALCAN this evening but will rapidly weaken through the remainder
of evening. Strong offshore coastal pressure gradients will
rapidly weaken...along with associated gap winds. There is some
blowing snow along with very light falling snow through Thompson
Pass, but with the sharp drop-off in winds expected, any
significant blowing snow conditions will rapidly diminish this
evening. Otherwise, another cold night is in store as arctic air
remains entrenched and skies clear tonight. A fast moving warm
front will then quickly track toward the North Gulf Coast
tomorrow, bringing easterly coastal winds and coastal rain/snow.
With the front stalling along the coast, downslope flow will
remain mostly dominant across inland locations, but it will
remain cold enough for all snow, most of which will be rather
light and sporadic west of the Chugach Mountains/Kenai Mountains.

Closer to the coast, snow will quickly change to rain or a
rain/snow mix as the front moves inland, but places along the
coast such as Cordova may experience a brief burst of moderate
snow along with strong east-southeast winds before changing over
in the evening. For Valdez and Thompson Pass, snow may be heavy
at times through Thursday, with the possibility of periodic
changeovers to rain in Valdez Thursday night and Friday.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The ridge across north central Alaska remains stationary as low
pressure pushes across the Western Aleutian chain to the Alaska
Peninsula Wednesday afternoon. This approaching system tightens
the pressure gradient between the two systems which increases
winds tonight, mainly for the Kuskokwim Delta and the Western
Capes. Gusty conditions persist through Thursday morning and then
tapers down as the surface low slips southeast of the Alaska
Peninsula. A front moving ahead of the Aleutian surface low brings
increased chances for snow along the Aleutian Range Wednesday and
into Thursday. Otherwise, dry conditions prevail under offshore
flow across the Southwest.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Low pressure along the Central Aleutians moves a gusty gale force
front across the central Bering this evening with the eastward
edge of the boundary progressing across the Alaska Peninsula. The
surface low center pushing the front tracks due east across the
Central Aleutians to the Alaska Peninsula on Wednesday, then takes
a southeast turn toward the Gulf early Thursday. An unsettled
weather pattern continues for the Bering on Thursday as an upper
level disturbance dives from Kamchatka and another surface front
moves into the Western Aleutian chain.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7...Fri through Tue)...
There is growing confidence that some snow could reach inland to
the Cook Inlet Region late Thu into early Fri. Another low will
develop along the polar jet axis down over the Gulf of AK. This
low will then wrap some more moisture over areas from the Kenai
Peninsula through the Matanuska Valley. While it certainly does
not look like much in the way of accumulation at this time on
the lee side of the Chugach, any mention of snow in this very dry
pattern is note-worthy. The set-up is quite convoluted, which
only further muddles the details.

Beyond the late week snow threat, be prepared for the coldest
temperatures of the season this weekend. As the aforementioned
low moves toward SE AK, some more energy will dive from the Seward
Peninsula into the base of the longwave trough over the Gulf.
Then a ridge building over the Bering will serve to reinforce
very cold, dry air moving over the AK Range and into Southcentral
AK. Clouds could help to keep the bottom from falling out, but
skies should clear by Mon allowing for the coldest morning of the
2016 winter.

The cold air will also help to usher in some impressive outflow
winds. Typical places like Thompson Pass, Whittier, and the Copper
River Delta could see very strong gusts. But gaps along the AK
Range will likely see the strongest winds with gusts approaching
hurricane-force as they blast into Shelikof Strait.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Blizzard Warning 131.
		 Wind Chill Advisory 155.
MARINE...Heavy Freezing Spray Warning 121 129 140 160 180 181.
         Gale Warning 119 120 125 130 131 138 139 150 155 160 165
					  170 172 173 174 175 176 177 178 179 180 181 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...EZ
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...JA
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...KH
LONG TERM...MO