Gale Warning 575, NWS Anchorage, AK

225 
FZAK51 PAFC 012340
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-021230-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON
AFTERNOON. A 1000 MB LOW FORMS 90 NM EAST OF KODIAK CITY SUN
MORNING AND EXITS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF ALASKA MON MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ119-021230-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT BUILDING TO 11
FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-021230-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT IN THE EVENING
BUILDING TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ121-021230-
RESURRECTION BAY-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TONIGHT...S WIND TO 15 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES
HEAD. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT. HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS S OF CAINES HEAD.
.MON...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-021230-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-021230-
PORT VALDEZ-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-021230-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING N 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-021230-
VALDEZ ARM-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-021230-
PASSAGE CANAL-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TONIGHT...E WIND 20 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING W 10 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-021230-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT SUBSIDING TO 8 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ131-021230-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 40 KT BECOMING S 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ132-021230-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ136-021230-
CHINIAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING TO 3 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ137-021230-
MARMOT BAY-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 20 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 7
FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ138-021230-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 4 FT IN THE
AFTERNOON.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 4 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...E WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ139-021230-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...N WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
7 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.THU...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-021230-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS
BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5
FT SUBSIDING.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ141-021230-
KACHEMAK BAY-
340 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...E WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.THU...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a strong storm over the Bering Sea and Aleutians. The
upper level center is just north of the central Aleutians and the
983 mb surface low is centered just west of Umnak Island. Its
storm force front stretches from the north Pacific across the
Alaska Peninsula into the southeast Bering Sea. There is a sharp
upper level ridge over the central and western Gulf of Alaska and
over the Alaska mainland. An upper level trough is over the
western Bering. A surface high is building underneath that trough
behind (to the west of) the Bering/Aleutian storm.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement on the Bering Sea
storm, and show good run-to-run consistency. Therefore forecast
confidence for this storm is high. The models continue to disagree
on a developing low in the Gulf on Sunday with a fairly large
spread of solutions for the low center. What is agreed upon is
that it will be fairly far from the coast so any impacts will be
in the marine areas, mainly the offshore zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main challenge in the forecast this weekend is the anticipated
weather change due to the Bering storm system. This system gains
northward momentum tonight sending a strong wave of energy
eastward. The ridge across Southcentral de-amplifies in response
during the weekend with a front pushing from the southwest
mainland. The front moves across the Alaska Peninsula this evening
then to Kodiak Island and the western Gulf after midnight. Gusty
Gale force marine winds are expected along the front as it pushes
across the western gulf. Rain spreads north across the Kenai to
the Western Prince William Sound Saturday morning into the
afternoon. Winds are expected to increase along a tightening
pressure gradient between a low in the eastern Bering and ridging
along the northeast Gulf coast. Turnagain Arm and higher
elevations will see the highest gusts Saturday afternoon and
night.

The front slowly advances across Anchorage and areas north to
east Saturday evening through Sunday as the Bering low becomes an
open wave and less organized down to the surface. With the system
falling apart, downsloping along the mountain ranges keep rain
accumulations on the low side under one tenth of an inch. Areas
along east facing slopes will average up to one quarter of an
inch, except for isolated higher amounts between 1 to 2 inches for
the eastern Kenai and Western Prince William sound.

A new storm system spins up quickly on Sunday in the North
Pacific and moves toward the Central and eastern Gulf. Southerly
gale winds are expected with this system along with directional
changes around the surface low center as it moves up during the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The powerful front over the eastern Bering Sea will begin to
impact the southwest coastline this evening, bringing strong winds
and moderate to heavy rain to coastal areas tonight and spreading
farther inland on Saturday. The strongest winds will affect the
immediate coastline between Cape Newenham and Kipnuk, with gusts
to 70 mph possible from roughly midnight tonight through early
Sunday morning. Winds will diminish as the front moves inland on
Saturday, but widespread gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range are
expected across much of the area through Saturday afternoon, with
localized gusts to 60 mph through favored terrain in the Kamishak
gap region on the western slopes of the Aleutian Range. Conditions
will improve Saturday night into Sunday as the front dissipates,
with rain transitioning to more of a showery regime in broad
onshore flow in the wake of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Storm force winds and heavy rain will shift from the Alaska
Peninsula this evening to areas along the southwest coast
including Bristol Bay and Etolin Strait overnight as the powerful
front begins to move over the mainland. Conditions will be
improving over these areas by Saturday morning, however another
round of strong winds will be in store for the central Bering
through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly gale force winds
develop on the backside of the parent low rapidly lifting
northward towards the Gulf of Anadyr. More benign conditions are
expected for Saturday night into Sunday, with scattered showers
and lighter winds as a much weaker disturbance transits the Bering
from west to east in quasi-zonal flow aloft. The Eastern Aleutians
should see a brief break in precipitation during this time as weak
surface ridging noses into the southeast Bering from the Pacific.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The forecast from late Sunday into early next week has trended
slightly cloudier with increased chances of rain into early next
week. There is still very good agreement that a developing low
will in the gulf will bring outflow winds, primarily to the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island, into early next week. The change
in the forecast surrounds an upper level trough from the Bering
that has trended further south, and is now expected to bring
widespread clouds and rain showers to the south Mainland into the
middle of next week. Also due to this trough, outflow winds over
the northern Gulf should be fairly weak without a significant
pressure gradient.

By the middle of next week there remains very good confidence
that a sharp trough forming over the Bering will bring a very
active and progressive pattern to Bering, Aleutians, and likely
the southwest Mainland for most of next week. This pattern will
bring a series of at least gale force lows through the region,
which will increase in intensity as the trough strengthens towards
the middle-end of next week. Further to the east over the Gulf
and Southcentral there looks be a very sharp contrast in the
sensible weather with good confidence of a blocking ridge setting
up over the region. This should provide generally sunny and dry
conditions to areas east of the Alaska Range that will likely
persist until late next week. Temperatures in this pattern should
be at or above normal for daytime highs, with overnight lows
falling well below freezing for much of Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 155 160 180 414. Gales 130 131 132 138 150 165 170
171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185 352 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK