Storm Warning 118, NWS Anchorage, AK

956 
FZAK52 PAFC 012334
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-021215-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 977 MB LOW 195 NM WEST OF GAMBELL MOVES ONSHORE THOUGH THE GULF
OF ANADYR SUN MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT SWEEPS INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA AND THE GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A 989 MB LOW
335 NM WEST OF ATTU MOVES TO 415 NM NORTH OF ATTU AT 988 MB BY
MON AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES OVER THE WESTERN
ALEUTIANS THROUGH MON AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ150-021215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ155-021215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT OUT OF BAYS AND PASSES IN
THE EVENING. SEAS 15 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ160-021215-
BRISTOL BAY-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 9
FT.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ165-021215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-021215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-021215-
UNALASKA BAY-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS
3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.WED...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.THU...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-021215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE EVENING. SEAS
12 SUBSIDING TO 7 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.WED...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ173-021215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ174-021215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 21 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 20 FT.

$$

PKZ175-021215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ176-021215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.WED...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 20 FT.
.THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ177-021215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 15 KT W OF AMCHITKA
PASS. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 40 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 23 FT.

$$

PKZ178-021215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 12
FT SUBSIDING TO 7 FT W OF SHEMYA.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT 15 KT E OF SHEMYA. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 17 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED...NW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.THU...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 19 FT.

$$

PKZ179-021215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. GUSTS TO 40 KT IN THE EARLY EVENING. SEAS
15 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT.
.MON...S WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TUE...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.THU...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 17 FT.

$$

PKZ180-021215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
13 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.WED...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ181-021215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 25 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
16 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON NIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.

$$

PKZ185-021215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
334 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT AND SUNDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 40 KT BECOMING SW 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
18 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SUN NIGHT...E OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT. W OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING S 35 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 15 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 30 KT. SEAS 21 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a strong storm over the Bering Sea and Aleutians. The
upper level center is just north of the central Aleutians and the
983 mb surface low is centered just west of Umnak Island. Its
storm force front stretches from the north Pacific across the
Alaska Peninsula into the southeast Bering Sea. There is a sharp
upper level ridge over the central and western Gulf of Alaska and
over the Alaska mainland. An upper level trough is over the
western Bering. A surface high is building underneath that trough
behind (to the west of) the Bering/Aleutian storm.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement on the Bering Sea
storm, and show good run-to-run consistency. Therefore forecast
confidence for this storm is high. The models continue to disagree
on a developing low in the Gulf on Sunday with a fairly large
spread of solutions for the low center. What is agreed upon is
that it will be fairly far from the coast so any impacts will be
in the marine areas, mainly the offshore zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main challenge in the forecast this weekend is the anticipated
weather change due to the Bering storm system. This system gains
northward momentum tonight sending a strong wave of energy
eastward. The ridge across Southcentral de-amplifies in response
during the weekend with a front pushing from the southwest
mainland. The front moves across the Alaska Peninsula this evening
then to Kodiak Island and the western Gulf after midnight. Gusty
Gale force marine winds are expected along the front as it pushes
across the western gulf. Rain spreads north across the Kenai to
the Western Prince William Sound Saturday morning into the
afternoon. Winds are expected to increase along a tightening
pressure gradient between a low in the eastern Bering and ridging
along the northeast Gulf coast. Turnagain Arm and higher
elevations will see the highest gusts Saturday afternoon and
night.

The front slowly advances across Anchorage and areas north to
east Saturday evening through Sunday as the Bering low becomes an
open wave and less organized down to the surface. With the system
falling apart, downsloping along the mountain ranges keep rain
accumulations on the low side under one tenth of an inch. Areas
along east facing slopes will average up to one quarter of an
inch, except for isolated higher amounts between 1 to 2 inches for
the eastern Kenai and Western Prince William sound.

A new storm system spins up quickly on Sunday in the North
Pacific and moves toward the Central and eastern Gulf. Southerly
gale winds are expected with this system along with directional
changes around the surface low center as it moves up during the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The powerful front over the eastern Bering Sea will begin to
impact the southwest coastline this evening, bringing strong winds
and moderate to heavy rain to coastal areas tonight and spreading
farther inland on Saturday. The strongest winds will affect the
immediate coastline between Cape Newenham and Kipnuk, with gusts
to 70 mph possible from roughly midnight tonight through early
Sunday morning. Winds will diminish as the front moves inland on
Saturday, but widespread gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range are
expected across much of the area through Saturday afternoon, with
localized gusts to 60 mph through favored terrain in the Kamishak
gap region on the western slopes of the Aleutian Range. Conditions
will improve Saturday night into Sunday as the front dissipates,
with rain transitioning to more of a showery regime in broad
onshore flow in the wake of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Storm force winds and heavy rain will shift from the Alaska
Peninsula this evening to areas along the southwest coast
including Bristol Bay and Etolin Strait overnight as the powerful
front begins to move over the mainland. Conditions will be
improving over these areas by Saturday morning, however another
round of strong winds will be in store for the central Bering
through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly gale force winds
develop on the backside of the parent low rapidly lifting
northward towards the Gulf of Anadyr. More benign conditions are
expected for Saturday night into Sunday, with scattered showers
and lighter winds as a much weaker disturbance transits the Bering
from west to east in quasi-zonal flow aloft. The Eastern Aleutians
should see a brief break in precipitation during this time as weak
surface ridging noses into the southeast Bering from the Pacific.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The forecast from late Sunday into early next week has trended
slightly cloudier with increased chances of rain into early next
week. There is still very good agreement that a developing low
will in the gulf will bring outflow winds, primarily to the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island, into early next week. The change
in the forecast surrounds an upper level trough from the Bering
that has trended further south, and is now expected to bring
widespread clouds and rain showers to the south Mainland into the
middle of next week. Also due to this trough, outflow winds over
the northern Gulf should be fairly weak without a significant
pressure gradient.

By the middle of next week there remains very good confidence
that a sharp trough forming over the Bering will bring a very
active and progressive pattern to Bering, Aleutians, and likely
the southwest Mainland for most of next week. This pattern will
bring a series of at least gale force lows through the region,
which will increase in intensity as the trough strengthens towards
the middle-end of next week. Further to the east over the Gulf
and Southcentral there looks be a very sharp contrast in the
sensible weather with good confidence of a blocking ridge setting
up over the region. This should provide generally sunny and dry
conditions to areas east of the Alaska Range that will likely
persist until late next week. Temperatures in this pattern should
be at or above normal for daytime highs, with overnight lows
falling well below freezing for much of Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 155 160 180 414. Gales 130 131 132 138 150 165 170
171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185 352 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK