Gale Warning 550, NWS Anchorage, AK

939 
FZAK61 PAFC 012335
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
335 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-021330-
335 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...A FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE
GULF OF ALASKA THROUGH MON AFTERNOON. A 1000 MB LOW FORMS AT 57N
150W SUN MORNING AND EXITS THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF MON MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING.

$$

PKZ351-021330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
335 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING NE AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
9 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ352-021330-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
335 PM AKDT SAT OCT 1 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. RAIN.
.SUN...W WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT. RAIN.
.MON...N WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

214 
FZAK61 PAFC 021122
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
322 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-030130-
322 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A FRONT CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF 
OF ALASKA THROUGH SUN EVENING. A 1000 MB LOW FORMS AT 57N 149W
THIS MORNING THEN DISSIPATES OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF SUN EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-030130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
322 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 13 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON AND MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 7 FT.

$$

PKZ352-030130-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
322 AM AKDT SUN OCT 2 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT 
AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...W WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.
.THU...SE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
450 PM AKDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
There is a strong storm over the Bering Sea and Aleutians. The
upper level center is just north of the central Aleutians and the
983 mb surface low is centered just west of Umnak Island. Its
storm force front stretches from the north Pacific across the
Alaska Peninsula into the southeast Bering Sea. There is a sharp
upper level ridge over the central and western Gulf of Alaska and
over the Alaska mainland. An upper level trough is over the
western Bering. A surface high is building underneath that trough
behind (to the west of) the Bering/Aleutian storm.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
The numerical models are in good agreement on the Bering Sea
storm, and show good run-to-run consistency. Therefore forecast
confidence for this storm is high. The models continue to disagree
on a developing low in the Gulf on Sunday with a fairly large
spread of solutions for the low center. What is agreed upon is
that it will be fairly far from the coast so any impacts will be
in the marine areas, mainly the offshore zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The main challenge in the forecast this weekend is the anticipated
weather change due to the Bering storm system. This system gains
northward momentum tonight sending a strong wave of energy
eastward. The ridge across Southcentral de-amplifies in response
during the weekend with a front pushing from the southwest
mainland. The front moves across the Alaska Peninsula this evening
then to Kodiak Island and the western Gulf after midnight. Gusty
Gale force marine winds are expected along the front as it pushes
across the western gulf. Rain spreads north across the Kenai to
the Western Prince William Sound Saturday morning into the
afternoon. Winds are expected to increase along a tightening
pressure gradient between a low in the eastern Bering and ridging
along the northeast Gulf coast. Turnagain Arm and higher
elevations will see the highest gusts Saturday afternoon and
night.

The front slowly advances across Anchorage and areas north to
east Saturday evening through Sunday as the Bering low becomes an
open wave and less organized down to the surface. With the system
falling apart, downsloping along the mountain ranges keep rain
accumulations on the low side under one tenth of an inch. Areas
along east facing slopes will average up to one quarter of an
inch, except for isolated higher amounts between 1 to 2 inches for
the eastern Kenai and Western Prince William sound.

A new storm system spins up quickly on Sunday in the North
Pacific and moves toward the Central and eastern Gulf. Southerly
gale winds are expected with this system along with directional
changes around the surface low center as it moves up during the
afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
The powerful front over the eastern Bering Sea will begin to
impact the southwest coastline this evening, bringing strong winds
and moderate to heavy rain to coastal areas tonight and spreading
farther inland on Saturday. The strongest winds will affect the
immediate coastline between Cape Newenham and Kipnuk, with gusts
to 70 mph possible from roughly midnight tonight through early
Sunday morning. Winds will diminish as the front moves inland on
Saturday, but widespread gusts in the 35 to 50 mph range are
expected across much of the area through Saturday afternoon, with
localized gusts to 60 mph through favored terrain in the Kamishak
gap region on the western slopes of the Aleutian Range. Conditions
will improve Saturday night into Sunday as the front dissipates,
with rain transitioning to more of a showery regime in broad
onshore flow in the wake of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Storm force winds and heavy rain will shift from the Alaska
Peninsula this evening to areas along the southwest coast
including Bristol Bay and Etolin Strait overnight as the powerful
front begins to move over the mainland. Conditions will be
improving over these areas by Saturday morning, however another
round of strong winds will be in store for the central Bering
through Saturday afternoon as northwesterly gale force winds
develop on the backside of the parent low rapidly lifting
northward towards the Gulf of Anadyr. More benign conditions are
expected for Saturday night into Sunday, with scattered showers
and lighter winds as a much weaker disturbance transits the Bering
from west to east in quasi-zonal flow aloft. The Eastern Aleutians
should see a brief break in precipitation during this time as weak
surface ridging noses into the southeast Bering from the Pacific.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
The forecast from late Sunday into early next week has trended
slightly cloudier with increased chances of rain into early next
week. There is still very good agreement that a developing low
will in the gulf will bring outflow winds, primarily to the
western Gulf and Kodiak Island, into early next week. The change
in the forecast surrounds an upper level trough from the Bering
that has trended further south, and is now expected to bring
widespread clouds and rain showers to the south Mainland into the
middle of next week. Also due to this trough, outflow winds over
the northern Gulf should be fairly weak without a significant
pressure gradient.

By the middle of next week there remains very good confidence
that a sharp trough forming over the Bering will bring a very
active and progressive pattern to Bering, Aleutians, and likely
the southwest Mainland for most of next week. This pattern will
bring a series of at least gale force lows through the region,
which will increase in intensity as the trough strengthens towards
the middle-end of next week. Further to the east over the Gulf
and Southcentral there looks be a very sharp contrast in the
sensible weather with good confidence of a blocking ridge setting
up over the region. This should provide generally sunny and dry
conditions to areas east of the Alaska Range that will likely
persist until late next week. Temperatures in this pattern should
be at or above normal for daytime highs, with overnight lows
falling well below freezing for much of Southcentral.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Storms 155 160 180 414. Gales 130 131 132 138 150 165 170
171 172 173 174 175 176 177 179 185 352 412 413.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...BL
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...KH
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...DEK