Gale Warning 450, NWS Anchorage, AK

263 
FZAK51 PAFC 211156
CWFAER

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA COAST
UP TO 100 NM OUT INCLUDING KODIAK ISLAND AND COOK INLET.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ197-220030-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE NORTH GULF COAST+KODIAK ISLAND WATERS+
COOK INLET...

A BROAD TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE GULF
THROUGH SAT. A 995 MB LOW WILL DEVELOP 80 NM SOUTH OF PRINCE
WILLIAM SOUND LATE SAT NIGHT.

$$

PKZ119-220030-
CAPE SUCKLING TO CAPE CLEARE-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ120-220030-
CAPE CLEARE TO GORE POINT-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ121-220030-
RESURRECTION BAY-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...S WIND 10 KT BECOMING E IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ125-220030-
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ126-220030-
PORT VALDEZ-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 10 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ127-220030-
VALDEZ NARROWS-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS
THAN
10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN AND MON...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ128-220030-
VALDEZ ARM-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING VARIABLE WIND 10
KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE
LESS
THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ129-220030-
PASSAGE CANAL-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...E WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
2 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ130-220030-
WEST OF BARREN ISLANDS INCLUDING KAMISHAK BAY-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY NOON. SEAS 9 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT INCREASING TO 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ131-220030-
BARREN ISLANDS EAST-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT BY NOON. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ132-220030-
MARMOT ISLAND TO SITKINAK-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ136-220030-
CHINIAK BAY-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 1 FOOT.

$$

PKZ137-220030-
MARMOT BAY-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 10 KT INCREASING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ138-220030-
SHELIKOF STRAIT-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ139-220030-
COOK INLET KALGIN ISLAND TO POINT BEDE-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ140-220030-
COOK INLET NORTH OF KALGIN ISLAND-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE LESS THAN
10 KT. SEAS 2 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ141-220030-
KACHEMAK BAY-
356 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.
.FRI...SW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
One final sunny, warm day concludes today in Southcentral as an
upper level ridge of high pressure is pushed south out of the
area. A pattern change is underway as a front is moving into
Southwest Alaska. Currently, Bethel and King Salmon radars show
a solid area of rain having pushed largely through Bethel and
Dillingham, and moving through King Salmon northward through
Aniak. This morning's 12Z Anchorage sounding shows a cooling of
the upper levels has already begun with freezing levels falling
below 12,000 feet. Temperatures are in the 70s once again over
much of Southcentral, while 50s and 60s are predominant across
Southwest Alaska where rain and cloud cover are in place.

A vertically stacked low over the far western Bering is producing
gusty winds over much of the western and central Bering with Small
Craft Advisories in effect for some of the offshore zones of the
Bering and along much of the Aleutians. This low will be one of
the catalysts for the pattern change on Friday. More details on
that below.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
All models are in fair synoptic agreement. They all handle the
front moving through Southwest AK with similar timing, but they
are struggling with some of the finer details. These details could
prove critical over the next few days. First, with the timing and
precipitation associated with this front, they all show something
a little different. As the front approaches, southeast winds
should increase through the usual gaps (Turnagain Arm, Copper
River Basin, Mat-Valley). But the timing of these winds varies by
an hour or two depending on which model you choose. The Hi-Res ARW
was preferred in handling this. The other interesting aspect with
the front is the precipitation. Some of the global models seem to
be painting too much QPF across much of the Cook Inlet. This is
likely due to their lack of resolution because with the southeast
flow, the terrain often times can "shadow" places on the leeward
side. The interesting aspect though is some possible weak instability
along the mountains. If the front was able to tap that, it could
make for more rain than otherwise might be expected. The NAM and
GEM Regional were preferred in handling the lower QPF amounts.

Lastly, the system that develops in the Gulf Fri remains a big
question mark. Models are trying to figure out the exact track
of the upper level low that moves in from the Bering. The subtle
differences in track could spell drastic differences in rain
amounts across Southcentral. If the low stays far enough north,
it could make for significant 1 inch + rain for many areas. If it
drops south as per the 12z NAM, most areas might actually stay
dry. This forecast package leans towards an EC/GFS combination,
which is a moderate middle ground. Needless to say, forecast
confidence with this system in low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A chance of precipitation tonight will be associated with the
decaying front as it passes across the region. This front will
also induce a wind shift as northwest flow shifts to the
southeast. This will occur by midnight for Turnagain Arm, which
means smoke from the McHugh Creek fire will begin to drift back
into the Anchorage Bowl, and continue to do so through Thu night.

As the front decays and stalls over the forecast area on Thu
light precipitation is expected over most of the area. This will
become more widespread Thu night as the next system approaches.
Significant rainfall is then expected on Fri with the phasing of
surface front and upper support.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain will continue to spread eastward across the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Bristol Bay through this evening as the front pushes
inland, with steady rain continuing along the Alaska Range through
Thursday morning. Cool and wet conditions will continue on Thursday
into Thursday night in the wake of the front as deep southwest
flow remains focused over the region and favorable upper level jet
energy moves over the southern mainland, although rain will likely
be lighter and more sporadic in nature. Friday will bring the
passage of an upper level trough and a transition to northwest
flow, keeping the cool and wet pattern going into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Rather benign cloudy conditions and gusty west to southwest winds
will persist across much of the Bering through Thursday in broad
southwest flow ahead of a closed upper low gradually shifting
eastward from its current position north of Attu. An embedded
disturbance over the North Pacific will bring a brief shot of
potentially heavy rain to Central Aleutians late tonight, with
rain then spreading to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
through Thursday evening as the feature quickly transits the
southeast Bering and a weak surface low develops south of the
Pribilofs. The upper low will then bring another round of rain to
the central and eastern Bering on Friday as it opens up into a
trough and dives southward towards the Gulf of Alaska. This will
yield drier conditions and partial clearing by Friday evening as
northwest flow develops in the wake of the trough.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning Friday evening, a rather dynamic low moving from the
Eastern Bering across the Alaska Peninsula will quickly move to
the Northern Gulf coast during the overnight. Rain will have
already overspread much of Southcentral with showers over
Southwest Alaska. This low will deepen Saturday morning then
move eastward, bringing rain to an end from west to east across
Southcentral, although showers will likely form in the afternoon
across the mountains. Another shortwave trough will dig into
Southwest Alaska during the afternoon and evening, quickly
spreading more rain into southern Alaska Sunday and Monday.
Thereafter, all the global models are in good agreement that a
large trough sets up over the Eastern Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska by Tuesday, keeping cooler and wetter weather in place
through the end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO/JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
349 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

AKZ101-125-220200-
ANCHORAGE-WESTERN PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ANCHORAGE...EAGLE RIVER...INDIAN...
EKLUTNA...WHITTIER...SEWARD...GIRDWOOD...MOOSE PASS
349 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

...ANCHORAGE RESIDENTS MAY SMELL SMOKE AFTER WINDS SHIFT TONIGHT...

THE ANTICIPATED WEATHER CHANGE WILL LIKELY TRANSPORT SMOKE INTO
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL AND HILLSIDE FROM THE MCHUGH CREEK FIRE AS
NORTH WINDS SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WITH IMPROVEMENT THURSDAY NIGHT AS WINDS TAPER OFF ACROSS
THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. RAIN CHANCES INCREASE TONIGHT...HOWEVER FRIDAY
IS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE ACCUMULATIONS AREA WIDE.

IMPACTS DURING THIS EVENT WILL INCLUDE AREAS OF SMOKE ALONG
TURNAGAIN ARM SPREADING INTO THE ANCHORAGE BOWL. REDUCED
VISIBILITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED HOWEVER THE SMELL OF SMOKE MAY BE
NOTICEABLE THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.