Gale Warning 451, NWS Anchorage, AK

936 
FZAK52 PAFC 211543
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-220430-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1004 MB LOW 370 NM N OF ATTU WEAKENS TO 1009 MB AS IT MOVES TO
200 NM SW OF SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND TONIGHT BEFORE DISSIPATING FRI
MORNING. A FRONT WILL ENTER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS THIS MORNING AND
WILL MOVE OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA FROM WEST TO EAST ON FRI.

$$

PKZ150-220430-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ155-220430-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT W 20 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E.
SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ160-220430-
BRISTOL BAY-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT DIMINISHING TO 10 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ165-220430-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...W WIND 20 KT IN THE
MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ170-220430-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 5 FT BUILDING TO 9 FT IN THE AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 9 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ171-220430-
UNALASKA BAY-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SE WIND 10 KT BECOMING S 25 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 3 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT BECOMING W 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 4 FT SUBSIDING TO 2 FT AFTER MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ172-220430-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ173-220430-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-220430-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ175-220430-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 KT BECOMING W IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-220430-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...S WIND INCREASING TO 35 KT. SEAS 14 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. 
SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-220430-
ADAK TO KISKA-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ178-220430-
KISKA TO ATTU-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ179-220430-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND FRIDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 8 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ180-220430-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT BECOMING W AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ181-220430-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ185-220430-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
743 AM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. 
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

246 
FZAK52 PAFC 212329
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-221215-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 1014 MB LOW 110 NM S OF SAINT PAUL ISLAND WILL TRACK TO 60 NM
NORTH OF PORT MOLLER OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...THEN DISSIPATE OVER THE
ALASKA PENINSULA BY EARLY FRI MORNING. A 1006 MB LOW 290 NM W OF
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WILL WEAKEN TO 1011 MB 100 NM S OF SAINT
MATTHEW ISLAND FRI MORNING...BEFORE DISSIPATING. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA FROM WEST TO EAST FRI THROUGH
SAT.

$$

PKZ150-221215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT INCREASING TO 30 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
10 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-221215-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-221215-
BRISTOL BAY-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-221215-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. FROM PORT MOLLER E...SE WIND 20 KT
BECOMING SW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. RAIN.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT EXCEPT NW 25 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E. SEAS
7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ170-221215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT BECOMING W 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8
FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-221215-
UNALASKA BAY-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT THROUGH SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-221215-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...GALE WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 35 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ173-221215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-221215-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-221215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-221215-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS
12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ177-221215-
ADAK TO KISKA-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-221215-
KISKA TO ATTU-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.FRI...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-221215-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY...

.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING SW 20 KT AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD RAIN
SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-221215-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 10 KT BECOMING NW AFTER MIDNIGHT. SEAS 5 FT.
PATCHY FOG. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.FRI NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT AND SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ181-221215-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI AND FRI NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ185-221215-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
329 PM AKDT THU JUL 21 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.FRI NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

774 
FZAK52 PAFC 221111
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-230030-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
THE FRONTAL SYSTEM OVER THE EASTERN BERING AND BRISTOL BAY WILL
SWING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BUILD BACK ACROSS THE BERING SEA FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH SAT.

$$

PKZ150-230030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ155-230030-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ160-230030-
BRISTOL BAY-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...S WIND 10 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-230030-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ170-230030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ171-230030-
UNALASKA BAY-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ172-230030-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ173-230030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. AREAS OF FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ174-230030-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ175-230030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ176-230030-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ177-230030-
ADAK TO KISKA-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ178-230030-
KISKA TO ATTU-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

.TODAY...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...S WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...SW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

PKZ179-230030-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. AREAS OF FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

$$

PKZ180-230030-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...W WIND 10 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...E WIND 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

$$

PKZ181-230030-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY SATURDAY...

.TODAY...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG. RAIN SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

$$

PKZ185-230030-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
311 AM AKDT FRI JUL 22 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.TODAY...VARIABLE WIND 10 KT BECOMING W 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 6 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.TONIGHT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT. PATCHY FOG.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

$$

Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Anchorage AK
429 PM AKDT WED JUL 20 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
One final sunny, warm day concludes today in Southcentral as an
upper level ridge of high pressure is pushed south out of the
area. A pattern change is underway as a front is moving into
Southwest Alaska. Currently, Bethel and King Salmon radars show
a solid area of rain having pushed largely through Bethel and
Dillingham, and moving through King Salmon northward through
Aniak. This morning's 12Z Anchorage sounding shows a cooling of
the upper levels has already begun with freezing levels falling
below 12,000 feet. Temperatures are in the 70s once again over
much of Southcentral, while 50s and 60s are predominant across
Southwest Alaska where rain and cloud cover are in place.

A vertically stacked low over the far western Bering is producing
gusty winds over much of the western and central Bering with Small
Craft Advisories in effect for some of the offshore zones of the
Bering and along much of the Aleutians. This low will be one of
the catalysts for the pattern change on Friday. More details on
that below.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
All models are in fair synoptic agreement. They all handle the
front moving through Southwest AK with similar timing, but they
are struggling with some of the finer details. These details could
prove critical over the next few days. First, with the timing and
precipitation associated with this front, they all show something
a little different. As the front approaches, southeast winds
should increase through the usual gaps (Turnagain Arm, Copper
River Basin, Mat-Valley). But the timing of these winds varies by
an hour or two depending on which model you choose. The Hi-Res ARW
was preferred in handling this. The other interesting aspect with
the front is the precipitation. Some of the global models seem to
be painting too much QPF across much of the Cook Inlet. This is
likely due to their lack of resolution because with the southeast
flow, the terrain often times can "shadow" places on the leeward
side. The interesting aspect though is some possible weak instability
along the mountains. If the front was able to tap that, it could
make for more rain than otherwise might be expected. The NAM and
GEM Regional were preferred in handling the lower QPF amounts.

Lastly, the system that develops in the Gulf Fri remains a big
question mark. Models are trying to figure out the exact track
of the upper level low that moves in from the Bering. The subtle
differences in track could spell drastic differences in rain
amounts across Southcentral. If the low stays far enough north,
it could make for significant 1 inch + rain for many areas. If it
drops south as per the 12z NAM, most areas might actually stay
dry. This forecast package leans towards an EC/GFS combination,
which is a moderate middle ground. Needless to say, forecast
confidence with this system in low at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
A chance of precipitation tonight will be associated with the
decaying front as it passes across the region. This front will
also induce a wind shift as northwest flow shifts to the
southeast. This will occur by midnight for Turnagain Arm, which
means smoke from the McHugh Creek fire will begin to drift back
into the Anchorage Bowl, and continue to do so through Thu night.

As the front decays and stalls over the forecast area on Thu
light precipitation is expected over most of the area. This will
become more widespread Thu night as the next system approaches.
Significant rainfall is then expected on Fri with the phasing of
surface front and upper support.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (Days 1 and 2)...
Rain will continue to spread eastward across the Lower Kuskokwim
Valley and Bristol Bay through this evening as the front pushes
inland, with steady rain continuing along the Alaska Range through
Thursday morning. Cool and wet conditions will continue on Thursday
into Thursday night in the wake of the front as deep southwest
flow remains focused over the region and favorable upper level jet
energy moves over the southern mainland, although rain will likely
be lighter and more sporadic in nature. Friday will bring the
passage of an upper level trough and a transition to northwest
flow, keeping the cool and wet pattern going into the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 and 2)...
Rather benign cloudy conditions and gusty west to southwest winds
will persist across much of the Bering through Thursday in broad
southwest flow ahead of a closed upper low gradually shifting
eastward from its current position north of Attu. An embedded
disturbance over the North Pacific will bring a brief shot of
potentially heavy rain to Central Aleutians late tonight, with
rain then spreading to the Eastern Aleutians and Alaska Peninsula
through Thursday evening as the feature quickly transits the
southeast Bering and a weak surface low develops south of the
Pribilofs. The upper low will then bring another round of rain to
the central and eastern Bering on Friday as it opens up into a
trough and dives southward towards the Gulf of Alaska. This will
yield drier conditions and partial clearing by Friday evening as
northwest flow develops in the wake of the trough.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 3 through 7)...
Beginning Friday evening, a rather dynamic low moving from the
Eastern Bering across the Alaska Peninsula will quickly move to
the Northern Gulf coast during the overnight. Rain will have
already overspread much of Southcentral with showers over
Southwest Alaska. This low will deepen Saturday morning then
move eastward, bringing rain to an end from west to east across
Southcentral, although showers will likely form in the afternoon
across the mountains. Another shortwave trough will dig into
Southwest Alaska during the afternoon and evening, quickly
spreading more rain into southern Alaska Sunday and Monday.
Thereafter, all the global models are in good agreement that a
large trough sets up over the Eastern Bering Sea and Southwest
Alaska by Tuesday, keeping cooler and wetter weather in place
through the end of next week.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
FIRE WEATHER...NONE.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...MO/JW
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA