Gale Warning 224, NWS Anchorage, AK

507 
FZAK62 PAFC 111214
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
314 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-120200-
314 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 966 MB LOW AT 52N 157W MOVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC SOUTH OF
KODIAK AT 972 MB THIS AFTERNOON. A 1005 MB LOW NEAR 54N 165E
DRIFTS TO 56N 177E AT 1009 MB EARLY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ411-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
314 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 3 TO 8 FT.

$$

PKZ412-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
314 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TODAY...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ413-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
314 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 8 TO 16 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.

$$

PKZ414-120200-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
314 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TODAY...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.

$$

171 
FZAK62 PAFC 112353
OFFALU

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
253 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE BERING SEA

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ499-121400-
253 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR CENTRAL BERING SEA...
A 1004 MB LOW NEAR 55N 168E WILL MOVE TO 55N 174E AT 1005 MB SAT
AFTERNOON...THEN DISSIPATE IN THE WESTERN BERING BY SUN AFTERNOON. A
985 MB LOW WILL FORM NEAR 54N 159W TONIGHT AND TRACK TO 57N 164W
AT 992 MB BY SUN AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ411-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE WEST OF 180 AND EAST OF THE INTERNATIONAL
DATELINE-
253 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 8 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.TUE...NE WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ412-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND NORTH OF 56N-
253 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. SNOW SHOWERS. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 8 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 TO 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.
.WED...E WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

PKZ413-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE 171W TO 180 AND SOUTH OF 56N-
253 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 11 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT...NW WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY
N OF 54N.
.SUN...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 6 TO 11 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT.

$$

PKZ414-121400-
BERING SEA OFFSHORE EAST OF 171W-
253 PM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TONIGHT...N WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 58N.
.SAT...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. SNOW. FREEZING SPRAY N
OF 57N.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 5 TO 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN
SHOWERS. FREEZING SPRAY N OF 56N.
.SUN...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...N WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 7 TO 12 FT.
.MON THROUGH WED...N WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 4 TO 9 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
GULF WITH A SECOND LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM OUT WEST IS AN ORGANIZED STACKED STORM SYSTEM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTING NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THE LEADING FRONT ALONG THE SURFACE OCCLUSION STRETCHES FROM THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TO JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THEN
WRAPS BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE BERING. SNOW AND RAIN ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH MAINLY SNOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE BERING. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...A WEAK
DEFORMATION ZONE SET UP ALONG BRISTOL BAY BRINGING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...THE MAINLAND IS UNDER RELATIVELY
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM AND GEM MODELS WERE INITIALLY USED TO
UPDATE THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF WITH A
TRANSITION TO THE GFS. THE SOUTHWEST...BERING AND ALEUTIANS WERE
UPDATED WITH THE GFS WHICH CONTINUED TO BE MOST CONSISTENT WITH
HANDLING WIND SPEEDS AROUND THE CORE OF THE BERING LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO MOST AREAS.
THIS RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF BY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULF COAST (SUCH AS TURNAGAIN AND
THOMPSON PASS)...THIS WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL TO
THOSE AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO THOMPSON
PASS TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE SPARED FROM
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPING AND DRY LOW
LEVELS...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY SNEAK THROUGH THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING...RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE GULF LOW RETREATS BACK TO THE
NORTH PACIFIC...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING AREA OF DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE GULF AND
THE APPROACHING BERING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ALONG AN
AXIS FROM WESTERN BRISTOL BAY INTO THE WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS...WITH
MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING BERING LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT PIVOTS TO
MORE OF AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION AND DISSIPATES. THIS WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM ADAK TO NEAR ATKA BY THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CENTER MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR. THE FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS THE
LOW DIVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN
SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING THROUGH FRIDAY IN
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. A MUCH WEAKER AND
MORE COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THAT
PART OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE A BROAD GULF LOW AND A
LEFTOVER FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NORTH PACIFIC JET WILL BE
DIVING TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL CLIP
THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW BY
MONDAY...BUT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THEREAFTER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BERING LOW PHASING WITH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BY MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE BY THIS POINT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. OTHERWISE...IN
THE MEAN TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187
MARINE...STORM 173 174 175 176 177 413
         GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 155 165 170 172 178 179
              352 411 412 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 411

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA