Gale Warning 265, NWS Anchorage, AK

050 
FZAK52 PAFC 111215
CWFALU

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

COASTAL WATERS FORECAST FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE
ALASKA PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS UP TO 100 NM OUT.

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ199-120100-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR SOUTHWEST ALASKA+BRISTOL BAY+THE ALASKA
PENINSULA WATERS AND THE ALEUTIAN ISLANDS...
A 966 MB LOW 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAND POINT MOVES INTO THE NORTH
PACIFIC SOUTH OF KODIAK AT 972 MB THIS AFTERNOON. A 1005 MB LOW
310 NM NORTHWEST OF SHEMYA DRIFTS TO 200 NORTHEAST OF SHEMYA AT
1009 MB EARLY SUN MORNING.

$$

PKZ150-120100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA SITKINAK TO CASTLE CAPE-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 25 KT EXCEPT E 15 KT S OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
SEAS 15 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT S OF
CHIRIKOF ISLAND. GUSTS TO 25 KT OUT OF SHELIKOF STRAIT. SEAS 13
FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KT W OF CHIRIKOF ISLAND.
SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ155-120100-
SOUTH OF THE AK PENINSULA CASTLE CAPE TO CAPE SARICHEF-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. FROM THE SHUMAGIN ISLANDS E...N WIND
20 KT IN THE EVENING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT. SEAS 14 FT. RAIN.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM THE SHUMAGIN
ISLANDS E. SEAS 9 FT. RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ160-120100-
BRISTOL BAY-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...N WIND 10 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ165-120100-
PORT HEIDEN TO CAPE SARICHEF-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT EXCEPT 20 KT W OF PORT MOLLER. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT EXCEPT VARIABLE 10 KT FROM PORT MOLLER E.
SEAS 7 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.

$$

PKZ170-120100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI BERING SIDE-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
FROM DUTCH HARBOR E...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS 18 FT. RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 18 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ171-120100-
UNALASKA BAY-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND INCREASING TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.SUN...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
.MON...W WIND 25 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ172-120100-
CAPE SARICHEF TO NIKOLSKI PACIFIC SIDE-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. FROM
DUTCH HARBOR E...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 20 FT. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT. RAIN AND SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...W WIND 35 KT. SEAS 11 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ173-120100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND BERING SIDE-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 21 FT SUBSIDING TO 14 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 14 FT.

$$

PKZ174-120100-
NIKOLSKI TO SEGUAM ISLAND PACIFIC SIDE-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 45 KT DIMINISHING TO 30 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 24 FT SUBSIDING TO 17 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 13 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 12 FT.

$$

PKZ175-120100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK BERING SIDE-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 17 FT SUBSIDING TO 12 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

$$

PKZ176-120100-
SEGUAM ISLAND TO ADAK PACIFIC SIDE-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...GALE WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON.
SEAS 16 FT SUBSIDING TO 11 FT IN THE AFTERNOON.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SAT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.MON THROUGH TUE...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ177-120100-
ADAK TO KISKA-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...NW WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING VARIABLE 10 KT.
SEAS 12 FT.
.TONIGHT...VARIABLE WIND LESS THAN 10 KT BECOMING SW 15 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 8 FT.
.SAT...SW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TUE...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.

$$

PKZ178-120100-
KISKA TO ATTU-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...SE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.TONIGHT...SW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW.
.SAT...W WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.SUN THROUGH MON...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 18 FT.

$$

PKZ179-120100-
PRIBILOF ISLANDS NEAR SHORE WATERS-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY THROUGH SATURDAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. GUSTS
TO 35 KT IN THE MORNING. SEAS 10 FT. SNOW AND RAIN SHOWERS.
.TONIGHT...NW WIND 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT. SNOW SHOWERS.
.SAT NIGHT...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 FT.
.SUN...NW WIND 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.MON...NW WIND 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS 7 FT.

$$

PKZ180-120100-
KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ETOLIN STRAIT-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...NE WIND 30 KT BECOMING N 20 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. N OF
CAPE NEWENHAM...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY N OF CAPE NEWENHAM.
.SAT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN...NE WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 4 FT.
.MON...N WIND 15 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.
.TUE...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 3 FT.

$$

PKZ181-120100-
NORTH AND WEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

.TODAY...NE WIND 20 KT.
.TONIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SAT...NE WIND 15 KT.
.SAT NIGHT...NE WIND 20 KT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 20 KT.

$$

PKZ185-120100-
SAINT MATTHEW ISLAND WATERS-
315 AM AKST FRI MAR 11 2016

...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING TODAY...
...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY TODAY...

.TODAY...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 7 FT. HEAVY FREEZING
SPRAY.
.TONIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT. FREEZING
SPRAY.
.SAT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.
.SAT NIGHT...N WIND 20 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 5 FT.
.SUN THROUGH TUE...N WIND 25 KT. SEAS IN ICE FREE WATERS 6 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
520 AM AKST THU MAR 10 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
EARLY THIS MORNING AN UPPER LOW IS WEAKENING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
GULF WITH A SECOND LOW TRACKING EASTWARD ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS.
THIS SECOND SYSTEM OUT WEST IS AN ORGANIZED STACKED STORM SYSTEM
WITH HURRICANE FORCE WINDS GUSTING NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS.
THE LEADING FRONT ALONG THE SURFACE OCCLUSION STRETCHES FROM THE
ALASKA PENINSULA TO JUST EAST OF THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND THEN
WRAPS BACK INTO THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE BERING. SNOW AND RAIN ARE
OCCURRING ALONG THE ALASKA PENINSULA WITH MAINLY SNOW ALONG THE
BOUNDARY IN THE BERING. ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND...A WEAK
DEFORMATION ZONE SET UP ALONG BRISTOL BAY BRINGING A FEW SNOW
SHOWERS AND FOG. OTHERWISE...THE MAINLAND IS UNDER RELATIVELY
QUIET CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WITH SCATTERED SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS THE GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE NAM AND GEM MODELS WERE INITIALLY USED TO
UPDATE THE FORECAST ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF WITH A
TRANSITION TO THE GFS. THE SOUTHWEST...BERING AND ALEUTIANS WERE
UPDATED WITH THE GFS WHICH CONTINUED TO BE MOST CONSISTENT WITH
HANDLING WIND SPEEDS AROUND THE CORE OF THE BERING LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
MID LEVEL RIDGING OVER MUCH OF SOUTHCENTRAL AND THE GULF COAST
WILL BRING MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND MILD TEMPERATURES TO MOST AREAS.
THIS RIDGING WILL THEN BEGIN TO SLIDE INTO THE INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON IN ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING
INTO THE NORTHERN GULF. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
RAIN AND GALE FORCE WINDS TO THE WESTERN/NORTHERN GULF BY THIS
EVENING WHICH WILL THEN PERSIST INTO FRIDAY MORNING. OVER THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE GULF COAST (SUCH AS TURNAGAIN AND
THOMPSON PASS)...THIS WILL BRING A FEW INCHES OF NEW SNOWFALL TO
THOSE AREAS...WITH TEMPERATURES REMAINING COLD ENOUGH TO THOMPSON
PASS TO SUPPORT LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. INTERIOR SOUTHCENTRAL SHOULD ONCE AGAIN BE SPARED FROM
PRECIPITATION FROM THIS SYSTEM WITH WEAK DOWNSLOPING AND DRY LOW
LEVELS...THOUGH A STRAY SHOWER OR TWO MAY SNEAK THROUGH THE
CHUGACH MOUNTAINS ON FRIDAY MORNING. BY FRIDAY EVENING...RIDGING
WILL RETURN TO SOUTHCENTRAL AS THE GULF LOW RETREATS BACK TO THE
NORTH PACIFIC...BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA FOR THE START OF THE WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
A WEAKENING AREA OF DEFORMATION BETWEEN THE LOW IN THE GULF AND
THE APPROACHING BERING SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT LIGHT SNOW ALONG AN
AXIS FROM WESTERN BRISTOL BAY INTO THE WESTERN KUSKOKWIM VALLEY
THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO SHOWERS...WITH
MINIMAL IF ANY ACCUMULATION EXPECTED. EAST TO NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO INCREASE TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING BERING LOW. AS THE LOW MOVES SOUTH OF THE AKPEN
THIS AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE AS IT PIVOTS TO
MORE OF AN EAST/WEST ORIENTATION AND DISSIPATES. THIS WILL KEEP
MOST OF THE SOUTHWEST MAINLAND DRY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE
BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
HIGH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS AND
SURROUNDING COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING IN STRONG COLD
ADVECTION ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW...WITH THE CORE OF STRONGEST
WINDS SHIFTING EASTWARD FROM ADAK TO NEAR ATKA BY THE AFTERNOON AS
THE LOW CENTER MOVES EASTWARD TOWARDS DUTCH HARBOR. THE FRONT
AHEAD OF THE LOW WILL BRING A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW ACCOMPANIED BY
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS TO THE PRIBILOF ISLANDS AND ALASKA
PENINSULA THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE RAPIDLY DISSIPATING AS THE
LOW DIVES INTO THE NORTH PACIFIC. WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL THEN
SETUP OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE BERING THROUGH FRIDAY IN
NORTHERLY FLOW IN THE WAKE OF THE DEPARTING LOW. A MUCH WEAKER AND
MORE COMPACT SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...BRINGING RENEWED POTENTIAL FOR SNOW TO THAT
PART OF THE CHAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...

BEGINNING FRIDAY EVENING THERE WILL BE A BROAD GULF LOW AND A
LEFTOVER FRONT ALONG THE GULF COAST. THE NORTH PACIFIC JET WILL BE
DIVING TOWARD THE WESTERN UNITED STATES COASTLINE...WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR WEAK HIGH PRESSURE TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTHERN ALASKA
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. A WEAK LOW OVER THE EASTERN BERING WILL CLIP
THE SOUTHWEST COAST AND MAY BRING SOME RAIN AND SNOW BY
MONDAY...BUT SOUTHCENTRAL WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH AT LEAST
MONDAY. THEREAFTER THERE IS MUCH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE
AFOREMENTIONED BERING LOW PHASING WITH A CUTOFF LOW ACROSS THE
NORTH PACIFIC...WHICH WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES OF
PRECIPITATION BY MIDWEEK...ALTHOUGH THERE IS MUCH HIGHER
CONFIDENCE BY THIS POINT OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. OTHERWISE...IN
THE MEAN TIME...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ABOVE CLIMO.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...HIGH WIND WARNING 187
MARINE...STORM 173 174 175 176 177 413
         GALE 119 120 130 131 132 138 155 165 170 172 178 179
              352 411 412 414
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185 411

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...KH
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...DEK
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...CB
LONG TERM...JA