Gale Warning 130, NWS Anchorage, AK

267 
FZAK61 PAFC 281253
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
353 AM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-290215-
353 AM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 969 MB LOW AT 57N 150W MOVES TO 58N 153W AND DISSIPATES MON
MORNING. A 978 MB LOW MOVES TO 53N 144W MON AFTERNOON THEN TRACKS
TO 57N 151W BY TUE MORNING AT 981 MB.

$$

PKZ351-290215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
353 AM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY...

.TODAY...S WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 17 TO 20 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 12 TO 16 FT.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.
.TUE...SE WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 11 TO 19 FT.
.WED THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.

$$

PKZ352-290215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
353 AM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY...

.TODAY...SW WIND 25 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 15 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT BECOMING SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 17 TO 23 FT.
.TUE THROUGH THU...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

748 
FZAK61 PAFC 290016
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
316 PM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-291415-
316 PM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE GULF TONIGHT.
A SURFACE FRONT WILL ENTER THE SOUTHERN GULF OF ALASKA ON MONDAY
MORNING NEAR 53N. THIS FRONT WILL PROGRESS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
GULF AND WILL BE LOCATED NEAR 59N ON TUESDAY EVENING.

$$

PKZ351-291415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
316 PM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016

...GALE WARNING MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 16 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING.
.MON...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 25 TO 40 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.MON NIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 15 KT. SEAS 10 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 8 TO 11 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 12 TO 19 FT.

$$

PKZ352-291415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
316 PM AKST SUN FEB 28 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...

.TONIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 25 KT INCREASING TO SE 20 TO 35 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 FT. RAIN SHOWERS.
.MON...E WIND 30 TO 40 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.MON NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 25 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 10 TO 14 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 10 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 13 TO 21 FT.

$$

284 
FZAK61 PAFC 291248
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-010215-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A WEATHER FRONT PRESSES OVER SOUTHERN KODIAK ISLAND TOWARDS THE
NORTH GULF COAST BY TUE MORNING. A 993 MB LOW 53N 137W MOVES TO
55N 145W AS A 999 MB LOW WED MORNING.

$$

PKZ351-010215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...GALE WARNING THROUGH TONIGHT...

.TODAY...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT INCREASING TO 30 TO 45 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 10 TO 16 FT.
.TONIGHT...E WIND 30 TO 45 KT BECOMING SE 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 12 TO 17 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 13 FT.
.WED THROUGH FRI...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 10 TO 18 FT.

$$

PKZ352-010215-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
348 AM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 30 TO 40 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 11 TO 16 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 10 TO 20 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...E WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.
.THU THROUGH FRI...E WIND 20 TO 30 KT. SEAS 13 TO 18 FT.

$$

947 
FZAK61 PAFC 292351
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
251 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-011415-
251 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...
A STRONG FRONT OVER THE SOUTHERN GULF MOVES INTO THE WESTERN GULF
COAST MON NIGHT. RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE GULF THROUGH WED
AFTERNOON.

$$

PKZ351-011415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
251 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...E WIND UP TO 20 KT BECOMING 15 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
12 TO 15 FT. RAIN.
.TUE NIGHT...NE WIND 15 KT. SEAS 9 TO 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND UP TO 20 KT. SEAS 8 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 25 KT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-011415-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
251 PM AKST MON FEB 29 2016

...STORM WARNING TONIGHT...

.TONIGHT...SE WIND 35 TO 50 KT DIMINISHING TO 15 TO 30 KT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT. RAIN.
.TUE...VARIABLE WIND 20 KT IN THE MORNING BECOMING NE 10 TO 20
KT. SEAS 12 TO 15 FT.
.TUE NIGHT...E WIND 20 KT. SEAS 12 FT.
.WED...NE WIND 15 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 FT.
.WED NIGHT...NE WIND 30 KT. SEAS 8 TO 13 FT.
.THU THROUGH SAT...E WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
535 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS LARGELY THE SAME WITH A BROAD
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING AND RIDGING TO THE EAST. THE MAIN
EMBEDDED LOW IN THE TROUGH SITS NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS WITH
MULTIPLE LOWS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH. THIS PATTERN ALSO
RESULTS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW BRINGING UP MORE WARM AIR TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA. THE NEXT IMPACTFUL LOW IS
HEADED TOWARDS THE ALASKA PENINSULA FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC
BRINGING A FRONT TOWARDS THE GULF.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE
NORTH PACIFIC LOW APPROACHES THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND STARTS TO
MERGE WITH THE LOW NEAR THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS. NONE OF THEM SEEM
TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS MERGER BUT THE VARYING SOLUTIONS
SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN TERMS OF IMPACTS TO
SOUTHERN ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

A LOW THAT IS CURRENTLY IN THE NORTH PACIFIC JUST SOUTH OF THE
GULF OF ALASKA...WILL TRAVERSE NORTHEASTWARD YET AGAIN TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ALASKA COAST TODAY. WHILE RECENT LOWS HAVE FAVORED A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK ACROSS OR JUST SOUTH OF THE KENAI PENINSULA...THIS
NEW LOW WILL FAVOR A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK ACROSS CENTRAL KODIAK.
CURRENTLY THE DRY CONVEYOR PORTION OF THIS LOW IS SUPPORTING SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. A FEW LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THIS EVENING INTO SUNDAY
MORNING ACROSS EASTERN PORTIONS OF KODIAK ISLAND AND KENAI
PENINSULA AND NEARBY WATERS AS THE STORM PUSHES NORTHWARD.

IN ADDITION...ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH INLAND
MUCH FARTHER TO THE NORTH THAN THE MAIN LOW...AND BRING YET
ANOTHER ROUND OF STEADY PRECIPITATION TO THE EASTERN KENAI. WITH
NO COLD AIR IN PLACE...PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY REMAIN RAIN
NEAR THE COAST...BUT A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
PASSES TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. IN ADDITION...PRESSURE GRADIENTS ARE
GENERALLY UNFAVORABLE FOR IMPRESSIVE GUSTS ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF
GAPS ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL. HOWEVER...THE STORM WILL SUPPORT STORM
FORCE WINDS ACROSS THE WATERS OF MUCH OF THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...AND THROUGH GAPS IN KODIAK ISLAND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL REMAIN IN A SHOWERY PATTERN THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS A LOW WILL APPROACH THE ALASKA PENINSULA LATE SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WITH A SECOND LOW MOVING INTO THE AKPEN EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL REMAIN
SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AHKLUN MOUNTAINS AS THE FLOW ALOFT WILL
GENERALLY KEEP THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA MOSTLY DOWNSLOPED.
PRECIPITATION WILL GENERALLY FALL AS RAIN WITH SOME PERIODS OF
SNOW MIXED IN...MAINLY DURING OVERNIGHT HOURS.

AS THE LOWS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING...NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE OVER THE REGION TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
WITH GUSTS ALONG THE COAST TO AROUND 40 MPH DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON AND TAPERING OFF MID-DAY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE IS EXPECTED
OVER THE BERING SEA AS A SERIES OF LOWS ENTER INTO THE
SOUTHEASTERN BERING SEA THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING AND THE REGION
REMAINS IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW. WINDS WILL INCREASE SOUTH OF THE
ALASKA PENINSULA AND OVER BRISTOL BAY TODAY TO GALE FORCE AS THE
LOW CURRENTLY APPROACHING KODIAK ISLAND MOVES INTO THE WESTERN
ALASKA PENINSULA BEFORE WEAKENING SUNDAY AS IT MOVES WESTWARD
ALONG THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN. A SECOND LOW WILL MOVE IN A SIMILAR
TRACK LATE SUNDAY...BRINGING A SECOND ROUND OF GALE FORCE WINDS TO
THE WATERS SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.

WINDS AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE BERING SEA AND THE FAR
WESTERN ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL REMAIN NEAR GALE FORCE THROUGH THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FIRMLY IN PLACE OVER
NORTHEASTERN RUSSIA.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE GENERAL PATTERN OF AN UPPER LEVEL LOW COMPLEX CENTERED OVER
AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND EASTERN ALEUTIANS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. WHILE MODELS STRUGGLE WITH
THE TIMING AND POSITION OF INDIVIDUAL SURFACE LOWS ROTATING AROUND
THE MEAN CENTER...THEY ARE IN SOMEWHAT BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE
GENERAL PATTERN AND BRING A SERIES OF TROUGHS AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS
NORTH INTO THE GULF AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND INTO
BRISTOL BAY. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTING NORTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BRING SOME COOLER AIR
ALOFT WITH IT TURNING PRECIPITATION OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS IN MOST
LOCATIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT. THE NEXT SURFACE LOW AND FRONTAL
SYSTEM WILL ROTATE INTO THE SOUTHWEST GULF MONDAY MORNING THEN
CONTINUE TO THE NORTHWEST AND ACROSS THE ALASKA PENINSULA MONDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL TROUGHS FOLLOWING.
RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER MAINLAND ALASKA MIDWEEK FOR A DRIER BREAK
BEFORE FRONTAL SYSTEMS START LIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF AND
OVER THE ALASKA PENINSULA AROUND THURSDAY OR FRIDAY.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119 130 131 138.
         GALE 120 132 136 137 139 150 155 160 178 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...JR