Gale Warning 128, NWS Anchorage, AK

102 
FZAK61 PAFC 271300
OFFAER

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE GULF OF ALASKA WEST OF 144W

WIND FORECASTS REFLECT THE PREDOMINANT SPEED AND DIRECTION
EXPECTED. SEA FORECASTS REPRESENT AN AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST
ONE-THIRD OF THE COMBINED WIND WAVE AND SWELL HEIGHT.

PKZ399-280145-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016
.SYNOPSIS FOR THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA...

A 962 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW WILL BECOME A BROAD 965 MB LOW NEAR 56N
155W TONIGHT BEFORE CROSSING THE ALASKA PENINSULA AND MOVING INTO
THE BERING SEA SUN. A 974 MB NORTH PACIFIC LOW TONIGHT WILL TRACK
TO 52N 158W AT 966 MB SUN NIGHT.

$$

PKZ351-280145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE NORTH OF 57N AND WEST OF 144W-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 22 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 35 KT. SEAS 18 TO 22 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...S WIND 30 KT BECOMING 20 TO 35 KT IN THE AFTERNOON. SEAS
19 TO 23 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...S WIND 15 TO 30 KT. SEAS 14 TO 20 FT.
.MON...E WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 12 TO 20 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 14 FT.

$$

PKZ352-280145-
GULF OF ALASKA OFFSHORE SOUTH OF 57N NORTH OF 55N AND WEST OF
144W-
400 AM AKST SAT FEB 27 2016

...STORM WARNING TODAY...

.TODAY...E WIND 35 TO 50 KT. SEAS 14 TO 21 FT. RAIN.
.TONIGHT...SE WIND 20 TO 35 KT. SEAS 15 TO 21 FT. RAIN SHOWERS
WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.
.SUN...SW WIND 30 TO 40 KT BECOMING S 20 TO 30 KT IN THE
AFTERNOON. SEAS 18 TO 24 FT.
.SUN NIGHT...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 19 FT.
.MON...SE WIND 25 TO 40 KT. SEAS 15 TO 23 FT.
.TUE THROUGH WED...E WIND 10 TO 25 KT. SEAS 9 TO 17 FT.

$$

SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
531 AM AKST FRI FEB 26 2016

.ANALYSIS AND UPPER LEVELS...
THE WARM WINTER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH RIDGING TO THE EAST AND A
BROAD LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE BERING. MULTIPLE LOW CENTERS ARE
EMBEDDED IN THE TROUGH WITH THE MAIN DEEPEST ONE OVER THE ALASKA
PENINSULA AND ANOTHER MOVING NORTH THROUGH THE GULF. THIS PATTERN
IS ALSO BRINGING A CONTINUED PUSH OF WARM AIR FROM THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

&&

.MODEL DISCUSSION...
THE MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT IN THE SHORT TERM. ITS NOT
UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THERE ARE DIFFERENCES IN HOW A NEW LOW
MOVING TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND VEERS INTO THE BERING. THERE IS NOT
GREAT AGREEMENT AMONGST ANY OF THE MODELS LOWERING OVERALL
CONFIDENCE IN THE PATH OF THE LOW. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN IMPACTS
WILL STAY HIGH AS ALL SOLUTIONS BRING WARM SOUTHEAST FLOW TO THE
SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST ALASKA.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...

CONDITIONS HAVE BEEN RATHER BENIGN ACROSS SOUTHCENTRAL
OVERNIGHT...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS AND DRY WEATHER
CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...THIS MORNING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LOCATED
SOUTHEAST OF KODIAK ISLAND IS PUSHING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE
MAINLAND. RADAR IS ALREADY INDICATING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
PRECIPITATION ACROSS PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THIS MORNING. IN
ADDITION...AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE NORTHEAST...PRESSURE GRADIENTS
ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION THIS
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN GUSTY WINDS THROUGH LOCAL GAPS. AS A
RESULT...DOWNSLOPING IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE ANCHORAGE
BOWL...WESTERN KENAI PENINSULA...AND MATANUSKA VALLEY. BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...A NEW FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ONCE MORE APPROACH
THE GULF COAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
CYCLONIC FLOW WILL DOMINATE SOUTHWEST ALASKA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD AS A SERIES OF LOWS MOVE INTO THE EASTERN BERING FROM THE
NORTH PACIFIC. THIS WILL GENERALLY KEEP SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS
IN THE FORECAST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FOR THE BRISTOL BAY REGION
AND THE KUSKOKWIM COAST AS THE SHORTWAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
PARENT LOWS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. WITH THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
ALOFT...THE BETHEL REGION SHOULD STAY MOSTLY DOWNSLOPED...ALTHOUGH
A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM FORECAST BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (DAYS 1 AND 2)...
AS WITH SOUTHWEST ALASKA...EXPECT THE BERING SEA TO REMAIN IN
CYCLONIC FLOW AS THE BROAD TROUGH CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE
REGION. A SERIES OF LOWS WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN BERING
THROUGH SATURDAY...BRINGING GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA AND ALEUTIANS AS WELL SOUTH OF THE ALASKA PENINSULA.
NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS OVER THE WESTERN BERING SEA AND THE
WESTERN ALEUTIANS WILL BRING FREEZING SPRAY THROUGH REGION THROUGH
SATURDAY...WITH HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY NEAR THE ICE EDGE TODAY AND
TONIGHT...MAINLY WEST OF ST MATTHEW ISLAND.

&&

.LONG TERM FORECAST (DAYS 3 THROUGH 7)...
THE STOUT WESTERN NORTH AMERICAN RIDGE AND A LONGWAVE TROUGH
ANCHORED BY A BROAD COMPLEX LOW SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIAN CHAIN WILL
CONTINUE TO BE THE DOMINANT LARGE SCALE FEATURES IMPACTING THE
PATTERN THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL KEEP ONSHORE
FLOW AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION FOCUSED ALONG THE GULF COAST AS
SEVERAL EMBEDDED SYSTEMS MOVE TOWARDS THE AKPEN OR WESTERN GULF
AND SWING FRONTS OVER THE NORTHERN GULF. INLAND AREAS OF
SOUTHCENTRAL AK WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY AS A RESULT OF FAIRLY
PERSISTENT DOWNSLOPE FLOW IN THE LEE OF THE COASTAL MOUNTAIN
RANGES. SHOWER POTENTIAL FOR THESE LOCATIONS WILL BE PERIODICALLY
ENHANCED AS FRONTS AND ACCOMPANYING UPPER LEVEL WAVES APPROACH THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY AND AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

MOVING FURTHER INTO THE EXTENDED TERM...12Z GUIDANCE IS HINTING
AT A WESTWARD SHIFT IN THE RIDGE DURING THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT
WEEK. ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO REMAINS ON THE LOW
SIDE...THIS WOULD GENERALLY SIGNAL A DRYING TREND AND THE
DEVELOPMENT OF OUTFLOW WINDS ALONG THE COAST AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE MAINLAND.

MEANWHILE...THE BERING REGION WILL REMAIN IN A BENIGN SHOWERY
PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF THE NEXT WEEK IN BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW
BENEATH THE NORTH PACIFIC LONGWAVE TROUGH. THE BEST CHANCES FOR
STRONGER WINDS AND HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER THE
SOUTHEAST BERING AS VARIOUS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS APPROACH THE
AKPEN.

&&

.AFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...NONE.
MARINE...STORM 119 120 131
         GALE 125 130 132 136 137 138 139 150 178 185.
         HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY 185.

&&

SYNOPSIS AND MODEL DISCUSSION...DK
SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA...EN
SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS...RF
LONG TERM...CB