Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
230 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SOME STORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS
EVENING WILL GENERATE STRONG WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN. DAYTIME
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...STRONG EASTERLY FLOW WITH INVERTED IMPULSE WRAPPING IN
FROM WEST TEXAS KEYING ANOTHER SOLID CHANCE OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS. 18Z SOUNDING REVEALED A RAPIDLY RECOVERING ATMOSPHERE FROM
THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION. PRECIPITABLE WATER DOWN TO 1.3 INCHES WITH
A QUICK REWORK OF CONDITIONS BELOW H5. AS EXPECTED WE'VE HAD SOME
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION TO OVERCOME...JUST ENOUGH TO DELAY ONSET OF
CONVECTION AN EXTRA HOUR OR TWO. MODIFYING THE SOUNDING WE'RE
GETTING 1500 J/KG MUCAPE WITH CONTINUED ELEVATED EASTERLY FLOW ABOVE
750MB AND SOLID SHEAR FOR OUR AREA. OUTFLOWS FROM INITIAL MOUNTAIN
DEVELOPMENT SHOULD END UP WITH A FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERE FOR VALLEY
DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON. WET MICROBURST AND ORGANIZED OUTFLOW
CONCERNS WITH ISOLATED SEVERE WIND...HAIL...RELATIVELY BRIEF BUT
VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM 22Z TO 06Z. SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1251 WITH
WATCH PROBABILITY AT 40 PERCENT.

AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP PROPAGATION INTO WESTERN DESERTS
OVERNIGHT...THE ORIENTATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW STILL FAVORS SOLID
CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY IMPULSE SHOULD LEAVE
EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY...UNDER SOME MID LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO UTAH.
A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE PATTERNS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA. A BUSY BUMPY MONSOON.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/00Z.
SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR
ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
547 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0546 PM     HAIL             TUCSON                  32.24N 110.94W
06/30/2015  E1.00 INCH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MISSION AND 36TH 1 INCH HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1500024

GL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
605 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

AZZ503-507-513-010130-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA
VISTA/BENSON-DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR
VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES-
605 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

AT 603 PM MST...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS NEAR CANELO...MOVING WEST
AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...HEAVY RAIN AND PEA SIZE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SIERRA VISTA...HUACHUCA CITY...SIERRA VISTA SOUTHEAST...PATAGONIA...
CANELO...FORT HUACHUCA...KINO SPRINGS...PARKER CANYON LAKE AND ELGIN.

LAT...LON 3162 11034 3141 11032 3135 11086 3161 11082
TIME...MOT...LOC 0103Z 073DEG 15KT 3152 11045

RH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
617 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

AZZ504-507-513-010200-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
617 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL PIMA AND NORTHERN
SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM MST...

AT 614 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES EAST OF CORONA DE TUCSON...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 20 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

THIS STORM MAY BECOME SEVERE IN THE NEAR FUTURE...SO STAY TUNED.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA...WHICH INCLUDE PIMA AND PINAL
COUNTIES.

LAT...LON 3208 11060 3189 11046 3174 11070 3174 11090
      3199 11105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0117Z 060DEG 17KT 3192 11061

MOLLERE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
634 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     HAIL             3 ENE RYAN FIELD        32.17N 111.13W
06/30/2015  E1.00 INCH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1500025

MOLLERE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
635 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0518 PM     HAIL             1 E SIERRA VISTA        31.55N 110.27W
06/30/2015  E0.75 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   PUBLIC

0525 PM     HAIL             4 NW TUCSON             32.28N 110.99W
06/30/2015  M0.88 INCH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKLE SIZE HAIL FALLING WITH HEAVY RAIN. WINDS 20-30
            MPH.

0529 PM     HAIL             4 NW TUCSON             32.28N 110.99W
06/30/2015  M1.00 INCH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL WITH HAIL COVERING THE GROUND.

0530 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SANTA ROSA              32.32N 112.04W
06/30/2015                   PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS FEW TREE BRANCHES DOWN 1 FT DIAMETER

0530 PM     HAIL             6 WNW TUCSON            32.27N 111.03W
06/30/2015  E0.75 INCH       PIMA               AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

0533 PM     HAIL             1 NNW SIERRA VISTA      31.57N 110.30W
06/30/2015  M0.88 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL

0535 PM     HAIL             SIERRA VISTA            31.55N 110.30W
06/30/2015  M0.75 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME SIZED HAIL. ALMOST AN INCH OF RAIN. STREETS
            FLOODED.

0545 PM     TSTM WND DMG     SIERRA VISTA            31.55N 110.29W
06/30/2015                   COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TREE DOWN IN ROAD IN SIERRA VISTA...FRY BLVD AND EL
            CAMINO REAL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1500027
EVENT NUMBER TWC1500028
EVENT NUMBER TWC1500029
EVENT NUMBER TWC1500030
EVENT NUMBER TWC1500031
EVENT NUMBER TWC1500032
EVENT NUMBER TWC1500033
EVENT NUMBER TWC1500034

CERNIGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
659 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0655 PM     HAIL             1 N RIO RICO            31.49N 110.97W
06/30/2015  M1.00 INCH       SANTA CRUZ         AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL. E WIND 29 GUSTING 43 MPH.

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1500034

CERNIGLIA