Areal Flood Advisory 21, NWS Tucson, AZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
938 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. STORMS THIS EVENING WILL
CONTINUE TO GENERATE STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 381 CONTINUES FOR PINAL AND
PIMA COUNTIES THROUGH MIDNIGHT THIS EVENING.

STRONGEST CELLS CURRENTLY ON RADAR ARE NEAR GREEN VALLEY AND ARE
STRADDLING THE PIMA/SANTA CRUZ COUNTY LINE. ALL OF THE ACTIVITY IS
MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE WEST AT 30 TO 35 MPH. THIS AREA CONTINUES
UNDER A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING UNTIL 945 PM MST. SHOWERS THAT
ARE HEADING WEST OVER THE TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION HAVE BEEN DECREASING
IN INTENSITY DURING THE PAST HALF HOUR OR SO.

ISSUED AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY THAT REMAINS IN
EFFECT UNTIL 1130 PM MST THIS EVENING. THE AREAS INCLUDED IN THE
ADVISORY COVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN PIMA COUNTY...EXCLUDING THE
TUCSON METRO...ALL OF SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AND INTO EXTREME SOUTHWEST
COCHISE COUNTY. RADAR ESTIMATES SHOW WIDESPREAD QUARTER TO HALF INCH
AMOUNTS...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OVER 1 INCH...ESPECIALLY FROM AMADO
TO MADERA CANYON TO NORTH OF SONOITA. IN ADDITION...HEAVY AMOUNTS
ARE ALSO OCCURRING OVER THE T.O. NATION NEAR KITT PEAK.

INHERITED POP FORECAST SEEMS REASONABLE WITH HIGHER POPS TO THE WEST
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND WITH RAIN CHANCES DECREASING AS
WELL THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT. THAT SAID...DO NOT PLAN ON ANY CHANGES TO
THE POP FORECAST AT THIS TIME.

TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY SHORT TERM HOURLY TEMP GRIDS NEED SOME
WORK...SINCE AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL HAVE COOLED SIGNIFICANTLY.
WILL TWEAK THESE HOURLY TEMP GRIDS TO REFLECT THESE RECENT TRENDS.

FOR INFO REGARDING THE FORECAST BEYOND TONIGHT...PLEASE REFER TO THE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 02/06Z.
SCT TO NMRS TSRA/SHRA THIS EVENING...THEN ISOLD TO SCT AFTER
MIDNIGHT. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT. CLOUD DECKS WILL
GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL WITH A FEW LOCATIONS BETWEEN 4-
7K FT...ESPECIALLY NEAR TSRA. SURFACE WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS
OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA THROUGH THIS EVENING...THEN WEAKEN
AFTER MIDNIGHT. ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH TEMPERATURES
WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...AFTER ANOTHER ROUND OF DEEP PROPAGATION INTO
WESTERN DESERTS OVERNIGHT...THE ORIENTATION OF LARGE SCALE FLOW
STILL FAVORS SOLID CONVECTION. HOWEVER THE WAKE OF THE EASTERLY
IMPULSE SHOULD LEAVE EASTERN AREAS...SUCH AS COCHISE COUNTY...UNDER
SOME MID LEVEL SUBSIDENCE WEDNESDAY.

FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL SEE THE REORIENTATION OF THE RIDGE
AXIS FROM CHIHUAHUA THROUGH EASTERN BORDER AREAS AND THEN INTO UTAH.
A LONG SOUTHERLY FETCH INSTEAD OF EASTERLY. THESE PATTERNS TEND TO
EMPHASIZE HEAVIER RAINFALL AS WELL AS MORE WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE
ORGANIZATION IMMEDIATELY UPSTREAM IN SONORA. A BUSY BUMPY MONSOON.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

CURRENT DISCUSSION...MOLLERE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...MEYER/LADER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
755 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

AZZ502-504>506-010330-
SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING ELOY/PICACHO PEAK STATE PARK AZ-
SOUTHEAST PINAL COUNTY INCLUDING KEARNY/MAMMOTH/ORACLE AZ-
TUCSON METRO AREA INCLUDING TUCSON/GREEN VALLEY/MARANA/VAIL AZ-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
755 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL PINAL AND NORTH
CENTRAL PIMA COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM MST...

AT 755 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR PICACHO TO 8 MILES
EAST OF RED ROCK TO TORTOLITA...AND MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
ORO VALLEY...MARANA...CASAS ADOBES...TORTOLITA...AVRA VALLEY...
FRIENDLY CORNERS...SILVER BELL...RED ROCK...PICTURE ROCKS...DOVE
MOUNTAIN...PICACHO PEAK AND SAGUARO NATIONAL PARK WEST.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST FOR
SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.

LAT...LON 3255 11197 3238 11167 3215 11141 3237 11094
      3259 11116 3269 11153
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 065DEG 29KT 3266 11147 3259 11118 3242 11102

CERNIGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
807 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0555 PM     TSTM WND GST     8 WSW TUCSON            32.19N 111.07W
06/30/2015  M67 MPH          PIMA               AZ   TWITTER

            67 MPH WIND GUST MEASURED ATOP THE CASINO DEL SOL

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1500039

CERNIGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
817 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0816 PM     HAIL             3 SSE SIERRA VISTA      31.51N 110.26W
06/30/2015  E0.75 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MARBLE SIZE HAIL

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1500040

CERNIGLIA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
823 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0822 PM     HAIL             4 SSE SIERRA VISTA      31.51N 110.27W
06/30/2015  M1.00 INCH       COCHISE            AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1500041

RH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
906 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

AZZ501>503-515-010445-
WESTERN PIMA COUNTY INCLUDING AJO/ORGAN PIPE CACTUS NATIONAL MONUMENT
AZ-UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
TOHONO O'ODHAM NATION INCLUDING SELLS AZ-
BABOQUIVARI MOUNTAINS INCLUDING KITT PEAK AZ-
906 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN PIMA COUNTY UNTIL 945 PM
MST...

AT 904 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR VENTANA TO NEAR
NEWFIELDS...AND MOVING WEST AT 40 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. BRIEF PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SELLS...AJO...SANTA ROSA...ORGAN PIPE NATIONAL MONUMENT...SANTA
CRUZ...SAN LUIS...SAN MIGUEL...CHARCO 27...PAPAGO FARMS...GU VO...
HICKIWAN...LUKEVILLE...NOLIC...PISINEMO...GUNSIGHT...COWLIC...
VENTANA...BIG FIELDS...VAMORI AND SOUTH KOMELIK.

LAT...LON 3250 11333 3204 11333 3149 11156 3250 11213
TIME...MOT...LOC 0404Z 095DEG 36KT 3251 11225 3150 11167

MOLLERE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
946 PM MST TUE JUN 30 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0940 PM     HAIL             1 N RIO RICO            31.49N 110.97W
06/30/2015  M1.00 INCH       SANTA CRUZ         AZ   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER REPORTS QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN AMADO

&&

EVENT NUMBER TWC1500042

RH