Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Tucson, AZ

793 
WGUS75 KTWC 012223
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
323 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

AZC023-020045-
/O.CON.KTWC.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150702T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
323 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 545 PM MST FOR
SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY...

AT 319 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED RAIN DIMINISHING ACROSS 
SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY INCLUDING THE RIO RICO AREA. SOME 
LOCATIONS HAVE RECEIVED OVER TWO INCHES OF RAIN IN THE PAST HOUR. 
FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING OR EXPECTED IN AREAS AROUND RIO RICO AND 
PENA BLANCA LAKE.

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING STREAMS AND DRAINAGES...PEASCO CANYON... 
PAPALOTE WASH...SONOITA CREEK...JOSEPHINE CANYON...AND POTRERO CREEK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT ENTER OR CROSS FLOWING WATER OR WATER OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. 

&&

LAT...LON 3158 11090 3141 11089 3136 11116 3156 11114

$$

MEYER

205 
WGUS75 KTWC 020039
FFSTWC

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
539 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

AZC023-020048-
/O.EXP.KTWC.FF.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150702T0045Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
SANTA CRUZ AZ-
539 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR SOUTH CENTRAL SANTA CRUZ COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 545 PM MST...

THE HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED...AND FLOODING IS NO LONGER EXPECTED TO 
POSE A THREAT. SOME OF THE WASHES IN THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO FLOW 
BUT SHOULD REMAIN WITHIN THEIR BANKS. 

LAT...LON 3158 11090 3141 11089 3136 11116 3156 11114

$$

MOLLERE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
220 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...EXPECT SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. SLOWER MOVING STORMS WILL START
TO INCREASE HEAVY RAINFALL CONCERNS WITH WET MICROBURSTS POSSIBLE.
DAYTIME TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO SEASONAL NORMALS INTO THIS
HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...NORMAL CONVECTION INITIATION TIME THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FAVORED LOCATIONS IN SANTA CRUZ COUNTY AS EXPECTED. THE STEERING
LEVEL FLOW IS STARTING TO GAIN A SOUTHERLY COMPONENT AS WELL WITH A
MODERATE OUTFLOW FROM THE SOUTH PUSHING INTO EASTERN PIMA COUNTY
FROM EARLIER AND ONGOING CONVECTION IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST CORNER OF
THE COUNTY. WE MAY STRUGGLE IN TUCSON METRO WITH THE PRECEDING ANVIL
SHUTTING DOWN SURFACE HEATING AND INITIAL OUTFLOW REDUCING
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WITHOUT INITIATING STORMS.

THE HIGH CENTER NORTH OF OUR AREA AND ORIENTATION OF THE ASSOCIATED
RIDGE AXIS HAS BEEN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE FOR THE EASTERLY FLOW AND
GREAT STORM STRUCTURE. STARTING TODAY THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN IS
BEGINNING TO REORIENT THE RIDGE FROM NEVADA THROUGH NEW MEXICO WITH
OUR FLOW GAINING AN INCREASINGLY DOMINANT SOUTHERLY COMPONENT. FOR
THE NEXT 24 HOURS THIS SHOULD SHOW ITSELF AS A SLOW WARMING TREND IN
THE MID LEVELS (ESPECIALLY EAST OF TUCSON) AND WEAKENING STORM LEVEL
FLOW.

SO...A RELATIVE DOWN COVERAGE DAY THURSDAY WITH A TRANSITION DAY
STARTING BACK UP FRIDAY AS THE THE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEEPENS AND
INTENSIFIES. BY SATURDAY A LONG STRONG SOUTHERLY FETCH SHOULD MAKE
FOR A BUSY WEEKEND WITH WET STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID THRU 03/00Z.
SCT TSRA/SHRA REDEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING HOURS. BRIEF
WIND GUSTS OF 4O-50 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.
CLOUD DECKS WILL GENERALLY BE AT OR ABOVE 10K FT AGL AND SURFACE
WIND WILL BE LESS THAN 12 KTS OUTSIDE OF ANY TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH STORMS. AVIATION DISCUSSION NOT
UPDATED FOR TAF AMENDMENTS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...ADEQUATE MOISTURE AND A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEKEND WITH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WITHIN A FEW DEGREES OF NORMAL.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

VISIT US ON FACEBOOK...TWITTER...YOUTUBE...AND AT WEATHER.GOV/TUCSON

MEYER/LADER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1243 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

AZZ503-507-513-012030-
UPPER SAN PEDRO RIVER VALLEY INCLUDING SIERRA VISTA/BENSON AZ-
DRAGOON/MULE/HUACHUCA AND SANTA RITA MOUNTAINS INCLUDING
BISBEE/CANELO HILLS/MADERA CANYON AZ-
UPPER SANTA CRUZ RIVER AND ALTAR VALLEYS INCLUDING NOGALES AZ-
1243 PM MST WED JUL 1 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COCHISE AND
SOUTHEASTERN SANTA CRUZ COUNTIES UNTIL 130 PM MST...

AT 1240 PM MST...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR PARKER CANYON LAKE AND CANELO...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 20
MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH ALONG WITH HEAVY
RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CANELO...PARKER CANYON LAKE...ELGIN AND PATAGONIA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF ON OR NEAR PARKER CANYON LAKE...GET OUT OF THE WATER AND MOVE
INDOORS OR INSIDE A VEHICLE. REMEMBER...LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE OUT TO
15 MILES FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU CAN HEAR THUNDER...YOU
ARE CLOSE ENOUGH TO BE STRUCK BY LIGHTNING. MOVE TO SAFE SHELTER
NOW. DO NOT BE CAUGHT ON THE WATER IN A THUNDERSTORM.

&&

LAT...LON 3149 11038 3135 11051 3147 11077 3163 11053
TIME...MOT...LOC 1940Z 126DEG 20KT 3147 11052

MEYER