Alert archive / Arkansas / Special Weather Statements in 2015

Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

May 29, 2015Sebastian County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this special weather statement at May 29, 2015, 3:15 PM CDT for Sebastian County, Arkansas. It was in force for 45 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 29, 2015, 3:15 PM CDT (20:15 UTC)
Expired: May 29, 2015, 4:00 PM CDT
In force: 45 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK

County Sebastian County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 10 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 193 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 535 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -52 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 864 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 33 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 130 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 123 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at May 29, 3:11 PM CDT, 4 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 29, 3:11 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
311 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

.DISCUSSION...
NEAR TERM...TORNADO WATCH FOR FAR ERN OK/NW AR UNTIL 7 PM. HAVE SEEN
SUPERCELL STRUCTURES ALONG LEADING EDGE OF PRECIPITATION SHIELD THAT
IS GRADUALLY ADVANCING NORTH AND EAST. GIVEN THE LOW LCL ENVIRONMENT
AND FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELDS...A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE
POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING AROUND 1.5-2.0
INCHES...RAINFALL RATES WILL CONTINUE TO BE VERY EFFICIENT WITH
POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES/PER HOUR LIKELY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL
GRADUALLY TRANSLATE EAST THROUGH THE EVENING AS THE MAIN TROF AXIS
SHIFT EAST. THE COLD FRONT CURRENTLY ENTERING KS WILL MOVE INTO NE
OK AFTER MIDNIGHT...AND THERE COULD BE SOME ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THIS BOUNDARY AS WELL AS OTHER SHOWERS/STORMS APPROACHING FROM
THE WEST.

FORECAST UNCERTAINTY IS BIT HIGHER GOING INTO SATURDAY AS THE LATEST
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SPED UP THE COLD FRONT/ARRIVAL OF DRIER AIR. HAVE
LOWERED POPS A BIT FOR TOMORROW AS MAIN TROF AXIS WILL HAVE ALREADY
PASSED TO OUR EAST. WILL LIKELY LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS
IT...BUT THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT IT PORTIONS OF IT WILL BE
CLEARED EARLIER THAN 00Z SUNDAY.

DRIER NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EVENTUALLY BE REPLACED BY UPPER
RIDGING/HIGHER MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS...BRINGING A WELCOMED PERIOD OF
MUCH DRIER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEKEND AND WELL INTO
NEXT WEEK. THERE MAY BE A FEW MAINLY AFTERNOON STORMS ACROSS
SE OK/WRN AR TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK...BUT COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN LIMITED.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   62  73  56  76 /  60  20  10  10
FSM   66  77  60  76 /  80  50  20  20
MLC   64  73  58  75 /  60  50  10  10
BVO   60  73  53  75 /  50  10  10   0
FYV   61  72  55  72 /  80  40  10  10
BYV   63  71  55  71 /  80  50  10  20
MKO   62  73  57  73 /  70  20  10  10
MIO   62  71  54  72 /  70  20  10  10
F10   62  72  57  74 /  50  20  10  10
HHW   65  77  61  78 /  70  60  30  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR OKZ049-OKZ053-OKZ054-
     OKZ055-OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-OKZ059-OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-
     OKZ063-OKZ064-OKZ065-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-OKZ070-
     OKZ071-OKZ072-OKZ073-OKZ074-OKZ075-OKZ076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 PM SATURDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011-ARZ019-ARZ020-ARZ029.

&&

SHORT TERM...23
LONG TERM....18

Hazardous weather outlook, May 29, 1:58 PM CDT, 1 hour 17 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-301030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
158 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

TORNADO.
        RISK...LIMITED.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...LIMITED.
 	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
        ONSET...ONGOING.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA..AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...THREAT EXPANDS
        EAST THIS AFTERNOON..AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
        ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.

	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON...THREAT EXPANDS
        EAST THIS AFTERNOON...AND INTO WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST
        ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING.

        ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...

INCREASED WIND SHEAR IN THE LOWEST LEVELS WILL RESULT IN A LIMITED
TORNADO AND SEVERE WIND RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. AREAS
ALONG AND EAST OF HIGHWAY 69 WILL RISK FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES AND
SEVERE STRAIGHT LINE WINDS TO 60 MILES AN HOUR THIS AFTERNOON. THE
SEVERE RISKS WILL INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL...AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF RAIN OCCURRING THIS AFTERNOON
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND HAS RESULTED IN ADDITIONAL FLOODING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. THIS ACTIVITY WILL IMPACT WEST
CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS BY THIS EVENING...AND CONTINUE INTO
TONIGHT. THEREFORE...THE RISK FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THOSE AREAS OVERNIGHT AS THE RAIN AXIS
MOVES EAST. AREAL FLOODING NEAR THE MAIN STEM RIVERS AND LAKES WILL
BE MAINTAINED AS WELL.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT... LOCAL SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
SATURDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY...NO HAZARDS.
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
A QUIETER UPPER LEVEL PATTERN WILL BEGIN TO TAKE SHAPE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...RESULTING IN MUCH DRIER CONDITIONS
COMPARED TO WHAT WAS OBSERVED DURING THE MONTH OF MAY. ONLY LOW
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE IN THE FORECAST FOR PARTS OF THE AREA
THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PLANNING STATEMENT...
PLEASE NOTE THAT AREAL FLOODING WILL LIKELY CONTINUE INTO NEXT
WEEK...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE AREA LAKES AND ARE NEAR OR OVER FULL
CAPACITY...AND RIVERS THAT HAVE BEEN IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF AT
LEAST MODERATE FLOODING.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, May 29, 10:58 AM CDT, 4 hours 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1058 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       5 W EUFAULA             35.29N 95.67W
05/29/2015  M3.27 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   MESONET

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       FAYETTEVILLE            36.06N 94.16W
05/29/2015  M2.23 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   CO-OP OBSERVER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       10 NNW VINITA           36.77N 95.22W
05/29/2015  M2.16 INCH       CRAIG              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL.

0700 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE HARTSHORNE        34.90N 95.53W
05/29/2015  M4.02 INCH       PITTSBURG          OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            24 HOUR TOTAL. COCORAHS.

&&

AEJ

Local storm report, May 29, 12:34 PM CDT, 2 hours 41 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1234 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1230 PM     FLASH FLOOD      3 S BIXBY               35.90N 95.88W
05/29/2015                   TULSA              OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

            WATER CROSSING MINGO ROAD BETWEEN 171ST AND 191ST.

&&

KAH

Local storm report, May 29, 1:25 PM CDT, 1 hour 50 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
125 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0120 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 W CLAREMORE           36.31N 95.63W
05/29/2015                   ROGERS             OK   PUBLIC

            STREET FLOODING WEST OF LYNN RIGGS BLVD AND SOUTH OF
            HIGHWAY 88. PHOTO RECEIVED ON SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

KAH

Special weather statement, May 29, 1:27 PM CDT, 1 hour 48 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
127 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

OKZ070-072-074-291900-
HASKELL OK-MUSKOGEE OK-SEQUOYAH OK-
127 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 200 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHERN HASKELL

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE AND WESTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 127 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF WHITEFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STIGLER...WHITEFIELD...VIAN...
GORE...BRIARTOWN AND WEBBERS FALLS.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH.
RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3563 9522 3552 9489 3519 9517 3520 9527
TIME...MOT...LOC 1827Z 207DEG 25KT 3529 9519

Local storm report, May 29, 2:24 PM CDT, 51 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
224 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     FLASH FLOOD      PRYOR                   36.31N 95.32W
05/29/2015                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING IN AND NEAR PRYOR. WATER
            RESCUES ONGOING IN TOWN.

0223 PM     FLASH FLOOD      SALINA                  36.29N 95.15W
05/29/2015                   MAYES              OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SIGNIFICANT STREET FLOODING IN SALINA.

&&

KAH

Special weather statement, May 29, 3:15 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

ARZ019-029-OKZ072-076-292100-
CRAWFORD AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
315 PM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 314 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 11 MILES SOUTH OF
CAMERON...MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MOFFETT...CAMERON...ROCK ISLAND...
POCOLA...BRADEN...ARKOMA...MILL CREEK...FORT SMITH...HACKETT...
BARLING...JENSON...BONANZA...JENNY LIND...RYE HILL AND FORT SMITH
REGIONAL AIRPORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3545 9450 3543 9423 3494 9446 3497 9462
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 196DEG 32KT 3498 9454

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 28, 9:04 PM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Pushmataha	12 hr
May 29, 12:16 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Choctaw, Haskell, Latimer, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	3 hr
May 29, 3:55 AM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	95 min
May 29, 8:20 AM CDT	River Flood Advisory	TSA	Cherokee	4 days
May 29, 8:41 AM CDT	River Flood Warning	TSA	Pushmataha	54 hr
May 29, 11:31 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Osage, Tulsa, Washington	6 hr
May 29, 12:08 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Muskogee, Nowata, Okmulgee, Rogers, Tulsa and 1 more	6 hr
May 29, 1:25 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Adair, Cherokee, Craig, Delaware, Mayes, Muskogee and 3 more	3 hr
May 29, 1:27 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell	33 min
May 29, 1:32 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Muskogee, Sequoyah	43 min
May 29, 1:39 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Mayes	6 hr
May 29, 1:40 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah	35 min
May 29, 1:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Mayes	46 min
May 29, 1:47 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Wagoner	43 min
May 29, 2:13 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Sequoyah	47 min
May 29, 2:18 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Haskell, Muskogee, Sequoyah, Wagoner	4 hr
May 29, 2:18 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware, Mayes	42 min
May 29, 2:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Cherokee, Mayes, Wagoner	13 min
May 29, 2:31 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Delaware, Mayes	29 min
May 29, 2:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	39 min
May 29, 2:53 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Craig, Delaware, Ottawa	4 hr
May 29, 2:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Delaware, Ottawa	36 min
May 29, 3:05 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	25 min
May 29, 3:20 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Delaware, Ottawa	55 min
May 29, 3:28 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Adair, Cherokee	37 min
May 29, 3:55 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Adair	35 min
May 29, 4:48 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	42 min
May 29, 5:22 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	Choctaw, Pushmataha	53 min
May 29, 5:46 PM CDT	Areal Flood Warning	TSA	Nowata, Okfuskee, Okmulgee, Rogers, Tulsa, Wagoner	4 hr
May 29, 6:32 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Choctaw, Latimer, LeFlore, Pittsburg, Pushmataha	6 hr
May 29, 3:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	43 min
May 29, 3:33 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	42 min
May 29, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	39 min
May 29, 4:07 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Crawford, Sebastian	113 min
May 29, 4:19 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	26 min
May 29, 4:20 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	25 min
May 29, 4:25 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Franklin	35 min
May 29, 4:29 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more	6 hr
May 29, 4:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Washington	29 min
May 29, 4:37 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Crawford, Washington	23 min
May 29, 4:45 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	30 min
May 29, 4:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	22 min
May 29, 5:17 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	28 min
May 29, 6:32 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Carroll	28 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Arkansas, 2015 Every special weather statement in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.