Special Weather Statement, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
624 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP THIS EVENING
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OK AND WESTERN AR...WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT
KMLC. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD DECREASE AFTER 06Z. MVFR/OCCASIONAL
IFR CIGS/VSBYS POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT...WITH IMPROVING
CONDITIONS AFTER 18Z ALONG WITH INCREASING SOUTH WINDS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015/

DISCUSSION...
ATMOSPHERE PRIMED FOR THUNDER LATE AFTERNOON/OVERNIGHT
..ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I40. NEAR DOUBLE DIGIT NEGATIVE
LI LATE AFTERNOON.  HR3  BRINGS SECOND THUNDER CLUSTER
LATE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. POPS RAISED ESP SOUTH TONIGHT.
HAIL PARAMETERS PARTICULARLY ROBUST.

WESTERLY STEERING FLOW BRINGS H500 WAVE MIGRATING FROM
SOUTHWEST  STATES  DIRECTLY  OVER OUR REGION WEDNESDAY.
NEXT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT AFFECTS OUR REGION
THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT.  APPEARS  COOL FRONT WILL
ENTER FORECAST AREA THURSDAY. FRONT STRETCHES OUT WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT  BEFORE FINALLY
PULLING AWAY FRIDAY.  ALL THIS RESULTS IN AN UNSETTLED
WETTER THAN NORMAL PERIOD THROUGH FRIDAY.  MOST POTENT
STORMS... AFTER THIS EVENING... PROBABLY THURSDAY WITH
THE COLD FRONT.

DRY FROM FRIDAY NOON THROUGH ABOUT SUNDAY NOON AS H500
MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN PLAINS. ANOTHER CHANCE OF PRECIP
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RETURNING MOISTURE ON LOW
LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  82  65  82 /  20  20  20  50
FSM   59  78  61  81 /  60  40  20  30
MLC   63  80  67  81 /  60  30  20  30
BVO   51  82  62  79 /  10  20  20  60
FYV   50  74  60  75 /  20  30  20  30
BYV   52  74  60  76 /  10  30  20  30
MKO   58  77  63  78 /  50  30  20  40
MIO   55  79  64  75 /   0  30  20  50
F10   59  79  65  81 /  60  30  20  30
HHW   61  77  63  80 /  60  50  30  30

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

AVIATION...18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
450 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
450 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
        AREA...LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
        ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...LOCATIONS MAINLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 40.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...LOCATIONS NORTHWEST OF INTERSTATE 44.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-
CENTRAL ARKANSAS IN THE VICINITY OF A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY. THE AIR MASS
ACROSS THE REGION IN VERY UNSTABLE WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR TO PRODUCE SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 70 MPH.
ADDITIONALLY...A LIMITED TORNADO RISK WILL ACCOMPANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING AS SHEAR AND INSTABILITY WILL BE
MAXIMIZED DURING THIS TIME FRAME.

THERE IS ALSO THE INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX TO
DEVELOPS ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA THIS EVENING AND MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA
AS WE MOVE INTO THE LATE NIGHT HOURS.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK LIKELY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT
A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER LESS WIND SHEAR WILL
LOWER THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH WITH CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
207 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E BERRYVILLE          36.36N 93.53W
03/25/2015                   CARROLL            AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

1050 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW ALTUS              35.47N 93.79W
03/25/2015                   FRANKLIN           AR   EMERGENCY MNGR

            SMALL TREES BLOWN DOWN ONTO HWY 64 BETWEEN ALTUS AND
            OZARK. ANOTHER TREE DOWN ON PRITCHARD ROAD.

&&

SAA

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OKZ074>076-312330-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-LE FLORE OK-
603 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 630 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN HASKELL...CENTRAL LE FLORE AND NORTHEASTERN LATIMER

AT 603 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES NORTH OF
FANSHAWE...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...SUMMERFIELD...FANSHAWE...HOWE...
WISTER AND LAKE WISTER STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3504 9460 3483 9469 3497 9507 3514 9499
TIME...MOT...LOC 2303Z 291DEG 16KT 3502 9492

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
612 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0602 PM     HAIL             8 NE RED OAK            35.03N 94.98W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       LATIMER            OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

RJS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
756 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OKZ070-073>075-010145-
HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-MUSKOGEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
756 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 845 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN HASKELL...NORTHEASTERN PITTSBURG AND NORTHERN LATIMER

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN MUSKOGEE

AT 756 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF ENTERPRISE...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...STIGLER...LEQUIRE...LEWISVILLE...
KINTA...ENTERPRISE...WHITEFIELD...QUINTON AND BRIARTOWN.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH.

LAT...LON 3535 9507 3499 9508 3504 9547 3527 9545
TIME...MOT...LOC 0056Z 265DEG 14KT 3518 9541