Alert archive / Oklahoma / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 31, 2015McIntosh County, Muskogee County, Okmulgee County, Oklahoma

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 31, 2015, 11:11 PM CDT for McIntosh County, Muskogee County, Okmulgee County, Oklahoma. It was in force for 49 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 31, 2015, 11:11 PM CDT (04:11 UTC)
Expired: Apr 1, 2015, 12:00 AM CDT
In force: 49 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

Counties McIntosh County, OK, Muskogee County, OK, Okmulgee County, OK

The radar

The Tulsa radar (KINX), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:11 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 31, 9:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	6 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Norman, OK (KOUN), launched 00:00Z, 4.2 hours before the alert went out and 158 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1642 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -15 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1964 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 5 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 79 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 3.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

569 
WUUS54 KTSA 010411
SVRTSA
OKC091-101-111-010500-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0063.150401T0411Z-150401T0500Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1111 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTH CENTRAL MCINTOSH COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...
  WEST CENTRAL MUSKOGEE COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA...
  EAST CENTRAL OKMULGEE COUNTY IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT

* AT 1108 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES
  SOUTHWEST OF COUNCIL HILL...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...COUNCIL HILL...HITCHITA AND
  ERAM.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 40 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 251 AND 258.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3564 9573 3563 9570 3559 9566 3555 9563
      3549 9558 3541 9571 3553 9589
TIME...MOT...LOC 0411Z 142DEG 10KT 3549 9571

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

1 follow-up statement

438 
WWUS54 KTSA 010425
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1125 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OKC091-101-111-010500-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0063.000000T0000Z-150401T0500Z/
MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-
1125 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR EAST CENTRAL
OKMULGEE...WEST CENTRAL MUSKOGEE AND NORTH CENTRAL MCINTOSH COUNTIES
UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT...

AT 1124 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES WEST OF
COUNCIL HILL...AND MOVING NORTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...ERAM

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS!

&&

LAT...LON 3544 9573 3553 9589 3564 9573 3563 9570
      3559 9566 3555 9563 3549 9558
TIME...MOT...LOC 0425Z 142DEG 10KT 3554 9575

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 31, 8:33 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 31, 8:33 PM CDT, 2 hours 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
833 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED THIS EVENING
NEAR A SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR OKEMAH TO WEBBERS FALLS
AND INTO WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS NEAR INTERSTATE 40. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
THESE STORMS IS VERY LARGE HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO FADE OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS WE LOSE DAYTIME HEATING. OUR FOCUS WILL THEN TURN
OUT TO OUR WEST WHERE SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH TEXAS. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
CONGEAL TOGETHER AND SPREAD TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT AND MOVE INTO EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AFTER MIDNIGHT. HAVE ADJUSTED POPS AFTER 6Z TO ACCOUNT FOR
THIS TREND. OTHERWISE...CURRENT FORECAST FOR TONIGHT IS ON TRACK.

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...10

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 31, 11:02 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1102 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-011030-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
1102 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL OKLAHOMA NEAR THE INTERSTATE
40 CORRIDOR. THESE STORMS WILL PRODUCE VERY LARGE HAIL AND VERY HEAVY
RAIN THAT COULD LEAD TO FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA LATE
TONIGHT FROM WESTERN ARKANSAS. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE
BY THE TIME THEY MOVE INTO THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
STRONG INSTABILITY WILL AGAIN DEVELOP WEDNESDAY AND SUPPORT
A LIMITED RISK OF SEVERE STORMS...HOWEVER LESS WIND SHEAR WILL
LOWER THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM WILL SWEEP THROUGH THE PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY...WITH AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH THE REGION. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP IN ADVANCE OF
THE FRONT ALONG WITH WITH CONDITIONS SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE
WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY AND COOLER CONDITIONS RETURN FOR
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN BY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 31, 9:38 PM CDT, 1 hour 33 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
938 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             10 E EUFAULA            35.29N 95.40W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       HASKELL            OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RJS

Local storm report, Mar 31, 9:39 PM CDT, 1 hour 32 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
939 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0930 PM     HAIL             6 SW WARNER             35.43N 95.38W
03/31/2015  E1.75 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

RJS

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 10:11 PM CDT, 1 hour before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1011 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OKZ066-010400-
OKMULGEE OK-
1011 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CENTRAL OKMULGEE

AT 1012 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
OKMULGEE STATE PARK...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...OKMULGEE...MORRIS...PRESTON...
BEGGS AND OKMULGEE STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3583 9590 3557 9583 3555 9619 3571 9619
TIME...MOT...LOC 0312Z 252DEG 11KT 3564 9614

Special weather statement, Mar 31, 10:13 PM CDT, 58 minutes before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1013 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

OKZ070-071-074-010400-
HASKELL OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-
1013 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 1100 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN HASKELL AND EASTERN MCINTOSH

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN MUSKOGEE

AT 1014 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 3 MILES SOUTHEAST
OF PIERCE...MOVING EAST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CHECOTAH...STIDHAM...ONAPA...
PIERCE...RENTIESVILLE...WARNER AND LAKE EUFAULA STATE PARK.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 40 MPH.

LAT...LON 3551 9574 3556 9530 3524 9530 3527 9545
      3529 9545 3530 9550 3528 9552 3533 9574
TIME...MOT...LOC 0314Z 262DEG 9KT 3542 9567

Local storm report, Mar 31, 10:32 PM CDT, 39 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1032 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0926 PM     HAIL             WELTY                   35.62N 96.40W
03/31/2015  E2.50 INCH       OKFUSKEE           OK   PUBLIC

&&

RJS

Local storm report, Mar 31, 11:03 PM CDT, 8 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1103 PM CDT TUE MAR 31 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             PIERCE                  35.43N 95.72W
03/31/2015  E1.00 INCH       MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

            HAIL FELL JUST EAST OF PIERCE. TIME ESTIMATED VIA RADAR.
            RELAYED VIA BROADCAST MEDIA SOCIAL MEDIA ACCOUNT.

&&

KAH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 31, 7:56 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell	49 min
Mar 31, 8:22 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee	38 min
Mar 31, 8:42 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	48 min
Mar 31, 8:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, McIntosh, Pittsburg	38 min
Mar 31, 8:54 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okfuskee	51 min
Mar 31, 9:24 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Haskell, McIntosh, Muskogee, Pittsburg	51 min
Mar 31, 9:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Creek, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	50 min
Mar 31, 10:11 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okmulgee	49 min
Mar 31, 10:13 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	47 min
Mar 31, 10:26 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh	49 min
Mar 31, 10:52 PM CDT	Areal Flood Advisory	TSA	McIntosh	113 min
Mar 31, 11:47 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	McIntosh	28 min
Mar 31, 11:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Okmulgee	39 min
Mar 31, 11:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	McIntosh, Okmulgee	27 min
Apr 1, 1:08 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	37 min
Apr 1, 1:58 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	32 min
Apr 1, 2:07 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Okfuskee	38 min
Apr 1, 2:15 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pittsburg	45 min
Apr 1, 2:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	24 min
Apr 1, 2:34 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Osage	21 min
Apr 1, 2:43 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	47 min
Apr 1, 2:54 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Creek, Haskell, McIntosh, Muskogee, Okfuskee, Okmulgee	51 min
Apr 1, 3:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Osage	24 min
Apr 1, 3:23 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Washington	37 min
Apr 1, 3:24 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Pushmataha	51 min
Apr 1, 3:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Washington	29 min
Apr 1, 4:12 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Haskell, Muskogee, Wagoner	48 min
Apr 1, 4:21 AM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Wagoner	39 min
Apr 1, 12:10 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Ottawa	35 min
Apr 1, 5:41 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Choctaw	34 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Oklahoma, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.