Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 28, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 25, 2015Carroll County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 25, 2015, 5:58 PM CDT for Carroll County, Arkansas. It was in force for 32 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2015, 5:58 PM CDT (22:58 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2015, 6:30 PM CDT
In force: 32 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.75 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Carroll County, AR

The radar

The Springfield radar (KSGF), 99 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:58 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

Time	Report	Where	Remark
Mar 25, 6:17 PM CDT	TSTM WND DMG	2 E Berryville, AR	SEVERAL TREES BLOWN DOWN.

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

Did it verify

Verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow matched one storm report to this severe thunderstorm warning; the first came 19 minutes after it went out.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 25, 2:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2127 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

654 
WUUS54 KTSA 252258
SVRTSA
ARC015-252330-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0028.150325T2258Z-150325T2330Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
558 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN CARROLL COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 630 PM CDT

* AT 556 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR URBANETTE...
  AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH.

  HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL
           DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT
           WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...GREEN FOREST...OAK GROVE...
  COIN...BLUE EYE AND DENVER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3626 9357 3629 9366 3630 9366 3630 9371
      3635 9387 3651 9340 3650 9330 3649 9329
      3629 9329
TIME...MOT...LOC 2259Z 252DEG 29KT 3639 9348

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 25, 3:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 3:46 PM CDT, 2 hours 12 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE ADVECTED WARMER AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. MODEL
AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
AS DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THEN TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS
AND THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL STONES OVER 2 INCHES. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALLOWING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR.
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44
AND INTERSTATE 40...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTING NEAR 40 MILES PER HOUR AT TIMES...MAINLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...COMPLETELY EXITING THE AREA BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  60  39  59 /  80  10  10   0
FSM   50  63  40  62 /  80  30   0   0
MLC   46  60  39  61 /  80  20   0   0
BVO   41  58  35  57 /  70  10  10   0
FYV   43  53  34  54 /  90  20  10  10
BYV   42  53  34  52 /  90  30  20  10
MKO   45  59  38  59 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   41  55  35  53 /  90  10  20  10
F10   45  59  39  59 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   50  63  40  66 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 4:55 PM CDT, 1 hour 3 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
455 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261015-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
455 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE TONIGHT....

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...CRITICAL.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...MID-EVENING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A WARM
FRONT ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE STORMS. THESE INITIAL STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...
RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MILES AN
HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WARM WEATHER AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:21 PM CDT, 37 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
521 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0515 PM     TORNADO          WAR EAGLE               36.27N 93.94W
03/25/2015                   BENTON             AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            PROBABLE RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO. TREE DAMAGE.

&&

RJS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:34 PM CDT, 24 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
534 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0530 PM     HAIL             4 SE WESTPORT           36.18N 96.27W
03/25/2015  E2.50 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

0530 PM     TSTM WND GST     4 SE WESTPORT           36.18N 96.27W
03/25/2015  E80.00 MPH       PAWNEE             OK   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:41 PM CDT, 17 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
541 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             3 S LOWELL              36.21N 94.13W
03/25/2015  E1.50 INCH       BENTON             AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

            1.5 INCH HAIL IN BETHEL HEIGHTS.

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:42 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
542 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0450 PM     HAIL             LOWELL                  36.26N 94.13W
03/25/2015  E1.75 INCH       BENTON             AR   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 5:51 PM CDT, 7 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
551 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0547 PM     TORNADO          2 S BERRYVILLE          36.34N 93.57W
03/25/2015                   CARROLL            AR   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RAIN WRAPPED TORNADO

&&

RJS

Special weather statement, Mar 25, 5:57 PM CDT, 1 minute before

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
557 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-OKZ058-063-252345-
BENTON AR-DELAWARE OK-OTTAWA OK-
557 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 645 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     NORTHERN BENTON

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHEASTERN OTTAWA

AT 557 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 3 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TIFF CITY TO 2 MILES NORTH OF
CHEROKEE CITY...MOVING EAST AT 55 MPH.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3651 9461 3650 9399 3643 9397 3621 9464
      3670 9479 3676 9461
TIME...MOT...LOC 2257Z 248DEG 46KT 3665 9465 3633 9455

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 24, 7:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	45 min
Mar 24, 8:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	44 min
Mar 25, 2:55 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	25 hr
Mar 25, 3:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	23 min
Mar 25, 3:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington	49 min
Mar 25, 3:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	50 min
Mar 25, 3:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin, Madison	63 min
Mar 25, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	54 min
Mar 25, 4:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	59 min
Mar 25, 4:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison	15 min
Mar 25, 4:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	24 min
Mar 25, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	25 min
Mar 25, 5:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison	46 min
Mar 25, 5:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	37 min
Mar 25, 5:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	48 min
Mar 25, 6:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Carroll	41 min
Mar 25, 6:33 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	4 hr
Mar 25, 6:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	68 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.