Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 22, NWS Tulsa, OK

March 25, 2015Madison County, Arkansas

NWS Tulsa, OK issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 25, 2015, 4:45 PM CDT for Madison County, Arkansas. It was in force for 15 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 25, 2015, 4:45 PM CDT (21:45 UTC)
Expired: Mar 25, 2015, 5:00 PM CDT
In force: 15 min
Issued by: NWS Tulsa, OK
Area: Storm-based polygon
Hail: 1.25 in
Wind: 60.0 mph

County Madison County, AR

The radar

The Western Arkansas radar (KSRX), 96 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The watch it was issued in

The SPC watch in force over the same counties when this warning went out.

Issued	Product	Office	Lasted
Mar 25, 2:16 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	8 hr

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 120 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2127 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 56 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: -38 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 22 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

177 
WUUS54 KTSA 252145
SVRTSA
ARC087-252200-
/O.NEW.KTSA.SV.W.0022.150325T2145Z-150325T2200Z/

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 445 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BOSTON...AND
  MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

  HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

  SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

  IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
           ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

* LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...RED STAR.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3587 9352 3577 9351 3576 9352 3576 9361
      3581 9363 3591 9351 3591 9350 3588 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2145Z 234DEG 23KT 3579 9355

HAIL...1.25IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

1 follow-up statement

858 
WWUS54 KTSA 252156
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
456 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARC087-252206-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0022.000000T0000Z-150325T2200Z/
MADISON AR-
456 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN MADISON COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 500 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED
AREA.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3587 9352 3577 9351 3576 9352 3576 9361
      3581 9363 3591 9351 3591 9350 3588 9350
TIME...MOT...LOC 2156Z 234DEG 23KT 3583 9348

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tulsa, OK wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 25, 3:46 PM CDT, 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 25, 3:46 PM CDT, 59 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE ADVECTED WARMER AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. MODEL
AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
AS DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THEN TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS
AND THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL STONES OVER 2 INCHES. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALLOWING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR.
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44
AND INTERSTATE 40...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTING NEAR 40 MILES PER HOUR AT TIMES...MAINLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...COMPLETELY EXITING THE AREA BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  60  39  59 /  80  10  10   0
FSM   50  63  40  62 /  80  30   0   0
MLC   46  60  39  61 /  80  20   0   0
BVO   41  58  35  57 /  70  10  10   0
FYV   43  53  34  54 /  90  20  10  10
BYV   42  53  34  52 /  90  30  20  10
MKO   45  59  38  59 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   41  55  35  53 /  90  10  20  10
F10   45  59  39  59 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   50  63  40  66 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 25, 1:20 PM CDT, 3 hours 25 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE INTIIAL
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MILES AN
HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WARM WEATHER AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:10 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
410 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             OILTON                  36.08N 96.58W
03/25/2015  E0.25 INCH       CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...PER VIDEO.

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:18 PM CDT, 27 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
418 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             OILTON                  36.08N 96.58W
03/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

            NICKEL TO QUARTER SIZE HAIL...PER VIDEO.

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:20 PM CDT, 25 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
420 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     HAIL             1 W KELLYVILLE          35.94N 96.23W
03/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       CREEK              OK   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:36 PM CDT, 9 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
436 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0435 PM     HAIL             ELM SPRINGS             36.21N 94.23W
03/25/2015  E1.50 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:41 PM CDT, 4 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
441 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             SAPULPA                 36.00N 96.11W
03/25/2015  E1.75 INCH       CREEK              OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CAS

Local storm report, Mar 25, 4:45 PM CDT, 0 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0441 PM     HAIL             1 E ELM SPRINGS         36.21N 94.22W
03/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         AR   PUBLIC

0441 PM     HAIL             JENNINGS                36.18N 96.57W
03/25/2015  E1.75 INCH       PAWNEE             OK   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

CAS

The office that day

Everything else NWS Tulsa, OK issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 24, 7:30 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	45 min
Mar 24, 8:16 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Sebastian	44 min
Mar 25, 2:55 AM CDT	Flash Flood Watch	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	25 hr
Mar 25, 3:07 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Crawford	23 min
Mar 25, 3:11 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian, Washington	49 min
Mar 25, 3:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	50 min
Mar 25, 3:42 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Franklin, Madison	63 min
Mar 25, 3:51 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Madison, Washington	54 min
Mar 25, 4:31 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Washington	59 min
Mar 25, 4:51 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison, Washington	24 min
Mar 25, 5:05 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton	25 min
Mar 25, 5:14 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll, Madison	46 min
Mar 25, 5:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	37 min
Mar 25, 5:57 PM CDT	Special Weather Statement	TSA	Benton	48 min
Mar 25, 5:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	32 min
Mar 25, 6:04 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	TSA	Carroll	41 min
Mar 25, 6:33 PM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	TSA	Benton, Carroll	4 hr
Mar 25, 6:37 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TSA	Carroll	68 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Arkansas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.