Severe Thunderstorm Warning 15, NWS Tulsa, OK

874 
WWUS54 KTSA 252119
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
419 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARC143-252129-
/O.CAN.KTSA.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150325T2145Z/
WASHINGTON AR-
419 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IS CANCELLED...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 3580 9396 3610 9394 3615 9392 3624 9383
      3605 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 242DEG 27KT 3591 9391

$$

ARC087-252145-
/O.CON.KTSA.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150325T2145Z/
MADISON AR-
419 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MADISON COUNTY
UNTIL 445 PM CDT...

AT 417 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES SOUTHWEST
OF JAPTON...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES.

LOCATIONS IN OR NEAR THE PATH INCLUDE...WESLEY...GEORGETOWN...
  JAPTON...HINDSVILLE...AURORA...WITHROW SPRINGS STATE PARK...
  HUNTSVILLE AND HARMONY

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3580 9396 3610 9394 3615 9392 3624 9383
      3605 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2119Z 242DEG 27KT 3591 9391

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH

$$

476 
WWUS54 KTSA 252140
SVSTSA

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
440 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARC087-252150-
/O.EXP.KTSA.SV.W.0015.000000T0000Z-150325T2145Z/
MADISON AR-
440 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MADISON COUNTY WILL EXPIRE AT
445 PM CDT...

THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSES AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY.

ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL POSSIBLE...AND A SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM.

LAT...LON 3580 9396 3610 9394 3615 9392 3624 9383
      3605 9359
TIME...MOT...LOC 2140Z 242DEG 27KT 3598 9374

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
346 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

.DISCUSSION...

MAIN CONCERN FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLASH FLOODING THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTHWARD ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WESTERN ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...REACHING JUST SOUTH OF THE
KANSAS/OKLAHOMA BORDER. SOUTHERLY WINDS SOUTH OF THIS BOUNDARY
HAVE ADVECTED WARMER AND MOIST AIR NORTHWARD INTO THE AREA SETTING
THE STAGE FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. A COLD FRONT
CURRENTLY STRETCHED ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS DOWN INTO NORTHWEST
OKLAHOMA WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND THROUGH THE EVENING. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...AND THEN SURGE SOUTHWARD
ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS LATER TONIGHT. MODEL
AND SOUNDING DATA SUGGEST THAT THE STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP
AS DISCRETE CELLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY FAR
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...THEN TRANSITION INTO A LINE OF STORMS ALONG
THE FRONT AND PUSH SOUTHEASTWARD. ALL MODES OF SEVERE WEATHER ARE
POSSIBLE...WITH THE MAIN TORNADO THREAT ASSOCIATED WITH THE
INITIAL DISCRETE STORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...FOLLOWED BY A
TRANSITION TO A SIGNIFICANT WIND THREAT AS THE COLD POOL DEVELOPS
AND THE SYSTEM SHIFTS SOUTH. VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT...WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL STONES OVER 2 INCHES. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
PASS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND INTO
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...ALLOWING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL TO OCCUR.
BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE BETWEEN INTERSTATE 44
AND INTERSTATE 40...WHERE A FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED.
VERY STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO DEVELOP BEHIND THE
FRONT...GUSTING NEAR 40 MILES PER HOUR AT TIMES...MAINLY AFFECTING
LOCATIONS ALONG AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 44. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT AND INTO THURSDAY
MORNING...COMPLETELY EXITING THE AREA BY MID DAY THURSDAY.

FOR THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK...COOLER AND DRIER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR LIGHT PRECIPITATION FRIDAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS INTO
MISSOURI. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM FOR THE WEEKEND...FOLLOWED BY
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM DRAGS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
PLAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   42  60  39  59 /  80  10  10   0
FSM   50  63  40  62 /  80  30   0   0
MLC   46  60  39  61 /  80  20   0   0
BVO   41  58  35  57 /  70  10  10   0
FYV   43  53  34  54 /  90  20  10  10
BYV   42  53  34  52 /  90  30  20  10
MKO   45  59  38  59 /  90  20   0   0
MIO   41  55  35  53 /  90  10  20  10
F10   45  59  39  59 /  90  10   0   0
HHW   50  63  40  66 /  70  20   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR OKZ056-OKZ057-OKZ058-
     OKZ060-OKZ061-OKZ062-OKZ063-OKZ066-OKZ067-OKZ068-OKZ069-
     OKZ070-OKZ071.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 7 AM THURSDAY FOR ARZ001-ARZ002-ARZ010-
     ARZ011.

&&

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....16

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-261000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
120 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SEVERE WEATHER EXPECTED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING
ALONG WITH THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
TORNADO.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...LATE AFTERNOON.

SIGNIFICANT WINDS.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.
	ONSET...THIS EVENING.

FIRE WEATHER DANGER.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
BY LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR OR JUST NORTH OF THE INTERSTATE 44
CORRIDOR IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND A
TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. THESE INTIIAL
STORMS WILL ALSO BE SLOW MOVING...RESULTING IN LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL AND THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING.

BY EARLY THIS EVENING...THE STORMS WILL CONGEAL INTO A MORE SOLID
LINE OF STORMS THAT WILL THEN PROGRESS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL TRANSITION TO DAMAGING WINDS DURING THIS TIME FRAME. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS THIS EVENING.

NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FOLLOWING
THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT. WIND GUSTS MAY EXCEED 40 MILES AN
HOUR AT TIMES ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
ACTIVATION OF THE REGIONAL SPOTTER NETWORK EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...HIGH WIND POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...NO HAZARDS.
MONDAY AND TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
WARM WEATHER AND MOISTURE RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND WILL AGAIN SET
THE STAGE FOR THUNDERSTORMS AS A COLD FRONT TRAVERSES THE REGION
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
307 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ019-020-029-OKZ072-076-252030-
CRAWFORD AR-FRANKLIN AR-LE FLORE OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-
307 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 330 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     CRAWFORD

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     WESTERN FRANKLIN AND NORTHWESTERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN LE FLORE

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 307 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES EAST OF
ROLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 45 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3576 9406 3557 9391 3531 9448 3547 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2007Z 238DEG 39KT 3544 9444

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
312 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0305 PM     HAIL             ROLAND                  35.42N 94.51W
03/25/2015  E1.00 INCH       SEQUOYAH           OK   PUBLIC

&&

CAS

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
320 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

OKZ064-252045-
CREEK OK-
320 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 345 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     WESTERN CREEK

AT 320 PM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE
EXTENDING FROM 8 MILES WEST OF DRUMRIGHT TO 14 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
MILFAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 60 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...BRISTOW...MILFAY...DEPEW...
SHAMROCK...DRUMRIGHT...OILTON AND SILVER CITY.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING PENNY SIZE HAIL. RESIDENTS
IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3609 9663 3617 9636 3575 9629 3564 9657
      3564 9662
TIME...MOT...LOC 2020Z 236DEG 53KT 3604 9670 3561 9669

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
324 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

ARZ001-OKZ063-068-069-252100-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CHEROKEE OK-DELAWARE OK-
324 PM CDT WED MAR 25 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A
SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 400 PM CDT
FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
     SOUTHWESTERN BENTON

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     NORTHEASTERN CHEROKEE

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHERN DELAWARE AND NORTHERN ADAIR

AT 324 PM CDT...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 2 MILES NORTHEAST
OF ELDON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND
GUSTS TO 50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE
THE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

LAT...LON 3621 9439 3610 9451 3610 9455 3607 9454
      3588 9474 3596 9493 3637 9499 3639 9460
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 218DEG 34KT 3597 9480