River Flood Advisory 29, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
643 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
WIDESPREAD PRECIP WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY
TOMORROW...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40. WIDESPREAD MVFR TO
PERIODIC IFR CEILINGS WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS NE OK / FAR NW AR
WHICH WILL REMAIN NORTH OF A WEAK WARM FRONT. SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY WIDELY VARYING FLIGHT CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED RANGING
FROM VFR TO OCCASSIONAL IFR AS THE HEAVIER PRECIP CORES PASS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 247 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015/

DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES IN THE VICINITY OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
THAT EXTENDS FROM EXTREME NORTHWEST ARKANSAS INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA THIS AFTERNOON. FLASH FLOOD WARNINGS ARE IN PLACE
FOR MUCH OF THIS AREA NEAR THE BOUNDARY. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH
CONTINUES FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE AREA LATER TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS A MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST TEXAS MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE THE SURFACE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO DRIFT BACK
TO THE NORTH OVERNIGHT. THEREFORE...THE FOCUS OF THE HEAVIEST RAIN
WILL MOVE BACK TO THE NORTH. THE THREAT FOR THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
TAPER OFF WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS THE MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE MOVES
OFF THE NORTHEAST. WE ARE STILL LOOKING AT A GOOD AREA OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS WITH
LOCALLY UP TO 10 INCHES OF RAIN POSSIBLE.

WILL CONTINUE CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE BOUNDARY SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
OUT OF THE AREA. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY AS
GREAT DURING THIS TIME-FRAME.

AFTER THE RAIN ENDS...THE WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN AS A UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES EXPANDS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS. SUNDAY AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST
DAYS WITH TEMPERATURES TAPERING SLIGHTLY AS WE MOVE INTO NEXT
TUESDAY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   67  78  69  88 / 100  90  50  50
FSM   73  84  70  90 /  80  80  50  30
MLC   71  81  72  87 /  90  90  40  20
BVO   64  77  65  85 / 100  90  50  50
FYV   68  78  68  84 /  90 100  60  40
BYV   67  78  67  84 / 100  90  50  40
MKO   69  78  68  86 / 100 100  60  30
MIO   64  76  65  83 /  90 100  50  50
F10   68  77  70  87 / 100 100  60  20
HHW   74  85  72  89 /  70  60  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-
     011-019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION...07

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
447 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-081045-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
447 PM CDT TUE JUL 7 2015

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL THROUGH WEDNESDAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

FLASH FLOOD AND HEAVY RAIN.
	RISK...SIGNIFICANT.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

	AREA AT GREATEST RISK...EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...LIMITED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM SOUTHWEST
THROUGH EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA TO NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.  TROPICAL
MOISTURE  LIFTING OVER THAT BOUNDARY  WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
HEAVY RAINFALL AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS.  RAINFALL RATES OF
ONE INCH PER HOUR WILL BE COMMON...LOCAL AMOUNTS OF TWO INCHES
PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED. A SURFACE WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT WILL EXPAND THE AREA OF HEAVY RAIN AND ENHANCE RAINFALL
RATES.  THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WIDESPREAD FLOODING AND FLASH
FLOODING FOR MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA  AND  NORTHWEST AND WEST
CENTRAL ARKANSAS TONIGHT.

TOTAL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM  WILL  LIKELY BE IN THE 3 TO 5
INCH RANGE FOR MOST LOCATIONS IN EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  LOCAL RAIN AMOUNTS MAY REACH 10 INCHES IN PERSISTENT
HEAVY RAIN BANDS OR REPEAT THUNDERSTORMS.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
WEST CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING FROM INTERSTATE 40 SOUTH WILL
PRODUCE SOME WIND GUST TO AROUND 40 MILES AN HOUR.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED. SOME WATER RESCUES CAN BE
ANTICIPATED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.
WEDNESDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL...HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.
MONDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL CONTINUES WEDNESDAY IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE FRONTAL WAVE.   THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM  POTENTIAL
BECOMES CONFINED TO AREAS  NEAR THE KANSAS BORDER... BEFORE
EXITING THE REGION FRIDAY.

A MID LEVEL RIDGE WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS
WEEKEND...LEADING TO SEVERAL DAYS OF HOT AND HUMID WEATHER.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
603 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0550 PM     FLASH FLOOD      CHECOTAH                35.47N 95.52W
07/07/2015                   MCINTOSH           OK   PUBLIC

            SECONDARY ROADS AROUND CHECOTAH FLOODED WITH SOME ROADS
            IMPASSABLE. RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

JDS

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
843 PM CDT TUE JUL 07 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0842 PM     FLASH FLOOD      MUSKOGEE                35.75N 95.37W
07/07/2015                   MUSKOGEE           OK   STORM CHASER

            SMITH FERRY ROAD FLOODED ON EAST SIDE OF MUSKOGEE.
            RELAYED BY BROADCAST MEDIA.

&&

JDS