Flash Flood Warning 115, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
630 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

.DISCUSSION...

THE 12Z TAF DISCUSSION IS INCLUDED BELOW...

&&

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
IFR/MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THRU MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IN A
SATURATED LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT. TIMING OF STORMS WAS BASED ON THE
LATEST RUC13 DATA...SHOWING THE BAND SHIFTING EAST GRADUALLY THRU
THE DAY BEFORE WEAKENING BY AROUND 00Z.

LACY

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015/

DISCUSSION...

MUCH ANTICIPATED HEAVY RAIN BAND HAS BECOME ESTABLISHED ACROSS
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA EARLY THIS MORNING IMMEDIATELY AHEAD
OF THE SLOW MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTH CENTRAL
OKLAHOMA NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF MISSOURI. THE
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR
ARDMORE...AND SHOULD MOVE TOWARD THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST GIVEN THE
OBSERVED SURFACE FALLS ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA NEAR THE HIGHWAY
75 CORRIDOR. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN ALONG AND
EAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TRACK...LIKELY JUST SOUTHEAST OF THE
INTERSTATE 44 CORRIDOR THROUGH MIDDAY TODAY. GIVEN THE CONTINUED
WELL ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES AND THE PRECIPITATION
RATES OBSERVED SO FAR THIS MORNING...ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
IN THE 1 TO 3 INCH RANGE WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY THIS MORNING. THE
HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL WILL TAPER OFF IN A SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST
FASHION DURING THE AFTERNOON AS THE GREATER FORCING SHIFTS INTO
THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY REGION. NO CHANGES ARE CURRENTLY
PLANNED TO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN THE LOCATION OF ONGOING
RAINFALL...BUT IT IS LIKELY THAT SOME OF THE NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
COUNTIES COULD BE DROPPED EARLY...POSSIBLY BY MID MORNING.

THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK NORTH INTO PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND NEAR THE MISSOURI AND ARKANSAS BORDER LATE
THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY
DEVELOP NEAR THE FRONT LATE TONIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW MORNING AS
THE DISTURBANCE MOVES OVERHEAD.

THE OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE TYPICAL OF SUMMERTIME
LATE THIS WEEK...THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BUILDS INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL UNITED STATES.
SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY LOOK TO BE THE WARMEST DAYS AS THE RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER OKLAHOMA AT THAT POINT. DEPENDING ON HOW
QUICKLY THINGS CAN DRY OUT FROM THE CURRENT ROUND OF RAINFALL...WE
COULD SEE OUR FIRST TRIPLE DIGIT HIGHS OF THE YEAR. GIVEN HOW
WARM PARTS OF THE AREA WERE ABLE TO GET IN EARLY JUNE NOT LONG
AFTER THE FLOODS OF MAY...WOULD BET THAT THIS WILL OCCUR MORE
QUICKLY THAN MOST WOULD EXPECT. MOST CERTAINLY HEAT INDEX VALUES
WILL BE IN THE TRIPLE DIGITS...LIKELY LEADING TO OUR FIRST HEAT
ADVISORIES OF THE SUMMER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   77  69  87  73 /  90  50  50  10
FSM   80  70  89  72 /  90  40  30  10
MLC   77  71  88  72 / 100  30  20  10
BVO   76  66  85  71 /  90  50  50  30
FYV   75  68  85  69 /  90  50  50  10
BYV   75  68  85  69 /  90  50  50  10
MKO   76  69  87  71 / 100  50  40  10
MIO   74  66  83  71 / 100  50  50  20
F10   76  70  88  72 /  90  40  30  10
HHW   83  72  90  72 /  80  10  10  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ049-053>076.

AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ001-002-010-011-
     019-020-029.

&&

AVIATION...30

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
444 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-091000-
ADAIR OK-BENTON AR-CARROLL AR-CHEROKEE OK-CHOCTAW OK-CRAIG OK-
CRAWFORD AR-CREEK OK-DELAWARE OK-FRANKLIN AR-HASKELL OK-LATIMER OK-
LE FLORE OK-MADISON AR-MAYES OK-MCINTOSH OK-MUSKOGEE OK-NOWATA OK-
OKFUSKEE OK-OKMULGEE OK-OSAGE OK-OTTAWA OK-PAWNEE OK-PITTSBURG OK-
PUSHMATAHA OK-ROGERS OK-SEBASTIAN AR-SEQUOYAH OK-TULSA OK-WAGONER OK-
WASHINGTON OK-WASHINGTON AR-
444 AM CDT WED JUL 8 2015

...DANGEROUS FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL CONTINUES TODAY...

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

HEAVY RAIN AND FLASH FLOOD.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

THUNDERSTORMS WITH DANGEROUS LIGHTNING.
	RISK...ELEVATED.
	AREA...EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS.
	ONSET...ONGOING.

DISCUSSION...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...PRODUCING HEAVY RAIN AND
AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING...ARE ONGOING THIS MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND FAR NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN ADVANCE OF A
SLOW MOVING FRONT. THE HEAVY RAIN AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT TO THE
NORTH AND EAST THROUGH THE DAY...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN TAPERING
OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AN ADDITIONAL 1
TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY THIS MORNING IN A BAND
FROM NEAR LAKE EUFAULA NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD GROVE AND
ROGERS...WITH ONE HALF TO ONE INCH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS. THESE AMOUNTS ARE ON TOP OF WHAT
HAS ALREADY FALLEN SINCE MONDAY NIGHT...AND WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FLASH FLOODING.

MORE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP PRIMARILY
AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT ACROSS AREAS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 40 AS AN
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

SPOTTER AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
THURSDAY...THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...NO HAZARDS.
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...DANGEROUS HEAT POTENTIAL.

EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS WELL.
WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

A MORE TYPICAL SUMMERTIME PATTERN WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTH
CENTRAL UNITED STATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION. ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL COMBINE WITH THE HUMIDITY FROM THIS WEEKS
RAINS TO RESULT IN HEAT INDEX VALUES WELL INTO THE TRIPLE DIGITS.
HEAT INDEX VALUES SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MAY EXCEED 105 DEGREES.

WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA CONTAINS ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.