Severe Thunderstorm Warning 201, NWS Topeka, KS

048 
WWUS53 KTOP 110057
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
757 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSC061-149-161-197-110130-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0201.000000T0000Z-150911T0130Z/
WABAUNSEE-GEARY-RILEY-POTTAWATOMIE-
757 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 830 PM CDT
FOR WESTERN WABAUNSEE...EAST CENTRAL GEARY...SOUTHEASTERN RILEY AND
SOUTH CENTRAL POTTAWATOMIE COUNTIES...

AT 757 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 8 MILES NORTH OF
VOLLAND...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS REPORTED 60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND 
QUARTER SIZED HAIL IN MANHATTAN AT 745 PM.

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANHATTAN...ALMA...ST. GEORGE...MCFARLAND AND VOLLAND. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 310 AND 331.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

LAT...LON 3913 9668 3926 9652 3902 9614 3882 9636
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 316DEG 26KT 3906 9644 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

SANDERS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

An upper level trough located across eastern MT and western SD will
dig southeast across the central plains Tonight. At the surface a
cold front extended from western IA...southwest into southeast NE,
then west across southern NE. An outflow boundary was slowly pushing
southwest across the CWA and extended from near LWC...southwest to
Abilene. This outflow boundary will probably stall out in its
current position. The mesoscale models show a cluster of storms
developing across west central NE as the H5 trough approaches. These
storms will move southeast and intensify as they encounter deeper
moisture and instability across north central KS. MLCAPES early this
afternoon were already 2000 to 3000 j/kg. As the northwesterly mid
and upper flow increases the effective sfc to 6km shear should
increase to 40 to 50 kts. Any discrete surface based storms that
develop along the outflow boundary may intensify into supercell
thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts. If a storm rides the boundary or propagates to the right of
mean shear vector than these supercells may capable of producing
isolated tornadoes late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Once the storms in NE congeal into a squall line or MCS than
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard as
the complex of storms move southeast across the CWA this evening.

The front and/or outflow ahead of the thunderstorm complex should
move south of the CWA after midnight. Ascent ahead of the upper
trough and isentropic lift north of the boundary will keep the
chance for rain and elevated thunderstorms into the early morning
hours of Friday.

Friday...Any morning showers across the southeast counties of the
CWA will move southeast into southwest MO by the mid morning hours,
as the upper trough digs southeast into the mid MS river valley.
Friday will be cooler with northeast winds of 10 to 20 MPH and gusts
to 25 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours. Skies will
become mostly sunny by noon across the entire CWA. Highs will be
cooler with lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

Strong sfc high will settle into the region Fri night with light
winds and very dry air in place expect lows to drop into the 40s by
Sat morning. Pleasant/quiet weather will persist through the weekend
since do not feel the current QPF depiction of the NAM is too far
east on Saturday and feel that any precip should remain to the west
of the CWA Sat.

By Sunday breezy south winds will return along with warmer temps but
humidities will remain low given the sfc high will push into the
Gulf over the weekend. Southwest flow aloft will establish across
the Plains into next week with lee troughing which will produce
windy and warm conds through mid week. Next chc for precip appears
to be Weds or Thurs as a sfc front attempts to sag toward the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

SCT TSRA in the area will remain in the vicinity of the terminals
until the main line of storms arrives between 00Z and 02Z with the
frontal boundary. Winds under 10 mph are expected to veer to the
north with the passage of the front. Could see occasional MVFR
conditions within the line, in addition to severe wind gusts.
Storms should clear the area aft 06Z with VFR returning through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Bowen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-111945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 4PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4PM THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
736 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0720 PM     HAIL             6 E LONGFORD            39.16N 97.23W
09/10/2015  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
738 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0737 PM     HAIL             2 NE CENTROPOLIS        38.74N 95.32W
09/10/2015  E2.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
739 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             3 S OTTAWA              38.58N 95.27W
09/10/2015  M1.75 INCH       FRANKLIN           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            MEASURED WITH RULER BY SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
740 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0728 PM     HAIL             7 SW WAKEFIELD          39.15N 97.12W
09/10/2015  E1.75 INCH       CLAY               KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW GOLF BALL SIZE STONES.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
744 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0736 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 SSE CONCORDIA         39.56N 97.65W
09/10/2015  M56 MPH          CLOUD              KS   ASOS

            ASOS MEASURED

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
745 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 PM     HAIL             WAMEGO                  39.20N 96.31W
09/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   PUBLIC

&&

JB