Severe Thunderstorm Warning 191, NWS Topeka, KS

984 
WWUS53 KTOP 110027
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
727 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSC059-110036-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0191.000000T0000Z-150911T0030Z/
FRANKLIN-
727 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR CENTRAL FRANKLIN COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 730 PM CDT...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE LIMITS
AND EXITED THE WARNED AREA. THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO
EXPIRE. HOWEVER HEAVY RAIN IS STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN 
FRANKLIN COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM CDT. 

LAT...LON 3843 9540 3854 9548 3866 9521 3846 9507
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 239DEG 21KT 3850 9534 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

An upper level trough located across eastern MT and western SD will
dig southeast across the central plains Tonight. At the surface a
cold front extended from western IA...southwest into southeast NE,
then west across southern NE. An outflow boundary was slowly pushing
southwest across the CWA and extended from near LWC...southwest to
Abilene. This outflow boundary will probably stall out in its
current position. The mesoscale models show a cluster of storms
developing across west central NE as the H5 trough approaches. These
storms will move southeast and intensify as they encounter deeper
moisture and instability across north central KS. MLCAPES early this
afternoon were already 2000 to 3000 j/kg. As the northwesterly mid
and upper flow increases the effective sfc to 6km shear should
increase to 40 to 50 kts. Any discrete surface based storms that
develop along the outflow boundary may intensify into supercell
thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts. If a storm rides the boundary or propagates to the right of
mean shear vector than these supercells may capable of producing
isolated tornadoes late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Once the storms in NE congeal into a squall line or MCS than
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard as
the complex of storms move southeast across the CWA this evening.

The front and/or outflow ahead of the thunderstorm complex should
move south of the CWA after midnight. Ascent ahead of the upper
trough and isentropic lift north of the boundary will keep the
chance for rain and elevated thunderstorms into the early morning
hours of Friday.

Friday...Any morning showers across the southeast counties of the
CWA will move southeast into southwest MO by the mid morning hours,
as the upper trough digs southeast into the mid MS river valley.
Friday will be cooler with northeast winds of 10 to 20 MPH and gusts
to 25 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours. Skies will
become mostly sunny by noon across the entire CWA. Highs will be
cooler with lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

Strong sfc high will settle into the region Fri night with light
winds and very dry air in place expect lows to drop into the 40s by
Sat morning. Pleasant/quiet weather will persist through the weekend
since do not feel the current QPF depiction of the NAM is too far
east on Saturday and feel that any precip should remain to the west
of the CWA Sat.

By Sunday breezy south winds will return along with warmer temps but
humidities will remain low given the sfc high will push into the
Gulf over the weekend. Southwest flow aloft will establish across
the Plains into next week with lee troughing which will produce
windy and warm conds through mid week. Next chc for precip appears
to be Weds or Thurs as a sfc front attempts to sag toward the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

SCT TSRA in the area will remain in the vicinity of the terminals
until the main line of storms arrives between 00Z and 02Z with the
frontal boundary. Winds under 10 mph are expected to veer to the
north with the passage of the front. Could see occasional MVFR
conditions within the line, in addition to severe wind gusts.
Storms should clear the area aft 06Z with VFR returning through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Bowen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-111945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 4PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4PM THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
648 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     HAIL             6 N MANHATTAN           39.27N 96.57W
09/10/2015  E1.50 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A FEW PING PONG SIZE STONES WITH 30MPH WIND.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
649 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             1 N BURLINGTON          38.21N 95.75W
09/10/2015  E0.75 INCH       COFFEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LARGEST SIZE HAIL REPORTED WAS 3/4 INCH STONES.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
653 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0641 PM     HAIL             8 S BARNES              39.60N 96.88W
09/10/2015  E0.88 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
655 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0640 PM     HAIL             10 SE LINN              39.58N 96.95W
09/10/2015  E1.75 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
656 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0651 PM     HAIL             5 WNW WAMEGO            39.22N 96.40W
09/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED QUARTER INCH SIZE HAIL.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             SE RANDOLPH             39.43N 96.76W
09/10/2015  E1.50 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE