Severe Thunderstorm Warning 197, NWS Topeka, KS

682 
WWUS53 KTOP 110029 RRA
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
729 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSC045-059-110100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-150911T0100Z/
FRANKLIN-DOUGLAS-
729 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 728 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CENTROPOLIS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...LAW ENFORCEMENT. AT 727 PM CDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT 
REPORTED GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL JUST EAST OF CENTROPOLIS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OTTAWA...BALDWIN CITY...WELLSVILLE...CENTROPOLIS AND PLEASANT GROVE. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 187 AND 194.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9526 3866 9544 3891 9530 3876 9506
      3873 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0028Z 209DEG 21KT 3870 9529 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

819 
WWUS53 KTOP 110036
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
736 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSC045-059-110100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-150911T0100Z/
FRANKLIN-DOUGLAS-
736 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 735 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR CENTROPOLIS...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

THIS IS A VERY DANGEROUS STORM.

HAZARD...BASEBALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. AT 734 PM CDT...EMERGENCY 
MANAGEMENT REPORTED BASEBALL SIZED HAIL ON HIGHWAY 59 AND THE 
DOUGALS/FRANKLIN COUNTY LINE. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE SEVERELY INJURED. 
         EXPECT SHATTERED WINDOWS...EXTENSIVE DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND VEHICLES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
OTTAWA...BALDWIN CITY...WELLSVILLE...CENTROPOLIS AND PLEASANT GROVE. 

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 187 AND 194.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THIS IS A DANGEROUS STORM. PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE DESTRUCTIVE
HAIL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE. PEOPLE OUTSIDE SHOULD
MOVE TO A SHELTER...INSIDE A STRONG BUILDING AND AWAY FROM WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3859 9526 3866 9544 3891 9530 3876 9506
      3873 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0035Z 209DEG 21KT 3873 9526 

HAIL...2.75IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

566 
WWUS53 KTOP 110046
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
746 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSC045-059-110100-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-150911T0100Z/
FRANKLIN-DOUGLAS-
746 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 800 PM CDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES...

AT 745 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR BALDWIN 
CITY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...TRAINED WEATHER SPOTTERS. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT DAMAGE 
         TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. 

THIS SEVERE STORM WILL BE NEAR...
  BALDWIN CITY AROUND 755 PM CDT.
  WELLSVILLE AND VINLAND AROUND 800 PM CDT.

THIS INCLUDES INTERSTATE 35 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 190 AND 194.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR LARGE HAIL AND DEADLY CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A WELL-BUILT STRUCTURE. STAY AWAY FROM
WINDOWS.

&&

LAT...LON 3863 9520 3871 9530 3887 9523 3876 9506
      3873 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0045Z 232DEG 20KT 3874 9521 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...<50MPH
 
$$

918 
WWUS53 KTOP 110059
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
759 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSC045-059-110108-
/O.EXP.KTOP.SV.W.0197.000000T0000Z-150911T0100Z/
FRANKLIN-DOUGLAS-
759 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN FRANKLIN AND
SOUTHEASTERN DOUGLAS COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 800 PM CDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. HOWEVER SMALL 
HAIL....GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS 
THUNDERSTORM.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN DOUGLAS 
COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM CDT. 

LAT...LON 3863 9520 3871 9530 3887 9523 3876 9506
      3873 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0058Z 209DEG 21KT 3874 9521 

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
635 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

...Update to aviation forecast discussion...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH Friday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

An upper level trough located across eastern MT and western SD will
dig southeast across the central plains Tonight. At the surface a
cold front extended from western IA...southwest into southeast NE,
then west across southern NE. An outflow boundary was slowly pushing
southwest across the CWA and extended from near LWC...southwest to
Abilene. This outflow boundary will probably stall out in its
current position. The mesoscale models show a cluster of storms
developing across west central NE as the H5 trough approaches. These
storms will move southeast and intensify as they encounter deeper
moisture and instability across north central KS. MLCAPES early this
afternoon were already 2000 to 3000 j/kg. As the northwesterly mid
and upper flow increases the effective sfc to 6km shear should
increase to 40 to 50 kts. Any discrete surface based storms that
develop along the outflow boundary may intensify into supercell
thunderstorms, capable of producing large hail and damaging wind
gusts. If a storm rides the boundary or propagates to the right of
mean shear vector than these supercells may capable of producing
isolated tornadoes late this afternoon into the early evening hours.
Once the storms in NE congeal into a squall line or MCS than
damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall will be the primary hazard as
the complex of storms move southeast across the CWA this evening.

The front and/or outflow ahead of the thunderstorm complex should
move south of the CWA after midnight. Ascent ahead of the upper
trough and isentropic lift north of the boundary will keep the
chance for rain and elevated thunderstorms into the early morning
hours of Friday.

Friday...Any morning showers across the southeast counties of the
CWA will move southeast into southwest MO by the mid morning hours,
as the upper trough digs southeast into the mid MS river valley.
Friday will be cooler with northeast winds of 10 to 20 MPH and gusts
to 25 MPH during the late morning and afternoon hours. Skies will
become mostly sunny by noon across the entire CWA. Highs will be
cooler with lower to mid 70s.

.LONG TERM...(Friday NIGHT THROUGH Thursday)
ISSUED AT 313 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

Strong sfc high will settle into the region Fri night with light
winds and very dry air in place expect lows to drop into the 40s by
Sat morning. Pleasant/quiet weather will persist through the weekend
since do not feel the current QPF depiction of the NAM is too far
east on Saturday and feel that any precip should remain to the west
of the CWA Sat.

By Sunday breezy south winds will return along with warmer temps but
humidities will remain low given the sfc high will push into the
Gulf over the weekend. Southwest flow aloft will establish across
the Plains into next week with lee troughing which will produce
windy and warm conds through mid week. Next chc for precip appears
to be Weds or Thurs as a sfc front attempts to sag toward the state.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z Friday EVENING)
ISSUED AT 632 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

SCT TSRA in the area will remain in the vicinity of the terminals
until the main line of storms arrives between 00Z and 02Z with the
frontal boundary. Winds under 10 mph are expected to veer to the
north with the passage of the front. Could see occasional MVFR
conditions within the line, in addition to severe wind gusts.
Storms should clear the area aft 06Z with VFR returning through
the remainder of the period.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Gargan
LONG TERM...Omitt
AVIATION...Bowen

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-111945-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
236 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR THE KANSAS NEBRASKA
BORDER THIS AFTERNOON...AND MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE
WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. AN ISOLATED
TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MOST LIKELY TIME FRAME FOR
SEVERE STORMS WILL BE FROM 4PM THROUGH MIDNIGHT FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED AFTER 4PM THROUGH THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
704 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0701 PM     HAIL             SE RANDOLPH             39.43N 96.76W
09/10/2015  E1.50 INCH       RILEY              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
711 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0705 PM     HAIL             2 WNW LINN              39.70N 97.12W
09/10/2015  E1.00 INCH       WASHINGTON         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
712 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             W LOUISVILLE            39.25N 96.31W
09/10/2015  E1.25 INCH       POTTAWATOMIE       KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
714 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0702 PM     HAIL             3 ENE REPUBLIC          39.94N 97.76W
09/10/2015  E0.75 INCH       REPUBLIC           KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
718 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0710 PM     HAIL             1 S LE ROY              38.06N 95.64W
09/10/2015  E1.75 INCH       COFFEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            A COUPLE GOLF BALL STONES SEEN.

&&

BDRAKE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
724 PM CDT THU SEP 10 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0723 PM     HAIL             6 S JAMESTOWN           39.52N 97.87W
09/10/2015  E1.50 INCH       CLOUD              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            LOTS OF PING PONG SIZE HAIL WITH 40-45MPH WIND GUSTS.

&&

BDRAKE