Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
450 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.Near Term [Through Tonight]...

STRONG CONVECTION ACROSS THE GULF IS DIMINISHING WHILE ADDITIONAL
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED NORTH OF THE CWA. SHOULD SEE THIS
DEVELOPMENT TREND CONTINUE INTO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF
THIS EVENING BUT THEN A SWITCH WITH THE FOCUS OVER THE GULF AREA BY
SUNRISE. FOR THE MOST PART...THE HI RES MODELS WANT TO QUIET IT DOWN
OVER THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA AFTER MIDNIGHT.

UPPER RIDGE REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS TX WHILE THE THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AXIS THAT IS STRETCHED ACROSS THE EAST COAST AND INTO THE CWA
TODAY WILL SHIFT EASTWARD TONIGHT. A VORT MAX SQUEEZED BETWEEN THESE
TWO SYSTEMS WILL DIVE INTO THE CWA TONIGHT AND THIS MAY ALLOW FOR A
MCS TO MOVE ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA. THUS SEVERE
WEATHER STILL REMAINS A CONCERN TONIGHT AND SPC HAS KEPT PART OF THE
CWA IN A SLIGHT RISK. THE MAIN CONCERN REMAINS DAMAGING WIND AND
HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVERTISE THIS IN THE GRIDS.

IN ADDITION WILL NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR HEAVY RAIN. RADAR
ESTIMATES INDICATE AREAS OF DIXIE COUNTY ALREADY RECEIVED AROUND 5
INCHES OF RAIN TODAY WITH OVER 3 INCHES ESTIMATED IN GULF COUNTY.
WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS EXPECTED TONIGHT...COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE
TRAINING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CWA. IF ANY FLOODING DOES OCCUR IT
SHOULD BE LOCALIZED.

.Short Term [Thursday Through Friday Night]...

A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY DOWN AND REMAIN JUST NORTH OF
OUR CWA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. IN ADDITION TO STORMS FORMING SOUTH
OF THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY, WE ALSO EXPECT STORMS TO FORM ALONG THE
SEABREEZE BOUNDARY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER ON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.
ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
DAMAGING WINDS AS THE MAIN THREAT.

BY FRIDAY, THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BEGIN TO DECAY, BUT THE
REMNANTS OF THE BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE
GULF COAST AND BECOME SOMEWHAT STATIONARY. THEREFORE, CONVECTION
FRIDAY WILL BE FOCUSED MORE ALONG NORTH FLORIDA, WITH MORE ISOLATED
CONVECTION POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA
AS THE AFTERNOON SEABREEZE FRONT MAKES ITS WAY INLAND.

TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE A BIT ABOVE NORMAL WITH HIGHS IN THE
MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE MID 70S, PEAKING IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S
FRIDAY IN SOUTHEAST ALABAMA AND SOUTHWEST GEORGIA, WHERE RAIN
CHANCES WILL BE LOWER.

.Long Term [Saturday Through Wednesday]...

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL LAY ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COASTLINE AND
ACROSS NORTHEAST FLORIDA THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE HIGH PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL BUILD EASTWARD. BY MONDAY,
STACKED HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN PLACE OVER THE SOUTHEAST, WITH
ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS, SWINGING
EASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. POPS
WILL BE NEAR CLIMO FOR THE SUMMER, AROUND 40 PERCENT, WITH
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, PEAKING IN THE LOW TO MID 90S
DURING THE DAY AND DIPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 70S AT NIGHT.

&&

.Aviation...

[Through 18Z Thursday] SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING. STORMS ARE MOVING TOWARDS ABY AND VLD
NOW, WITH AN INCREASE IN COVERAGE EXPECTED IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.
INCLUDED TEMPO GROUPS AT ALL SITES EXCEPT ECP TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY
WINDS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. OUTSIDE THUNDERSTORMS CONDITIONS
WILL BE VFR.

&&

.Marine...

WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
ONSHORE SURGES WITH THE SEABREEZE FRONT EACH AFTERNOON. WINDS
TONIGHT WILL BE AROUND 15 TO 20 KNOTS WITH THE PRESENCE OF A
COASTAL BOUNDARY...BUT WILL DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEAS WILL BE AROUND 2-4 FEET THROUGH FRIDAY...LOWERING TO 1-2 FEET
BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.Fire Weather...

GUSTY TRANSPORT WINDS WILL RESULT IN HIGHER DISPERSIONS IN THE
AFTERNOONS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THERE ARE NO OTHER FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS.

&&

.Hydrology...

RAINFALL TOTALS THIS MORNING ALONG COASTAL BIG BEND AREAS WERE
AROUND 2-4", WITH PARTS OF COASTAL DIXIE COUNTY ACCUMULATING UP TO
AROUND 4-6". ADDITIONAL RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TOMORROW IN THIS
AREA, WHICH MAY CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY, SOUTHWEST
AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA MAY SEE A FEW STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY
RAINFALL TODAY AND TOMORROW, WHICH MAY ALSO CAUSE LOCALIZED
FLOODING. OTHERWISE, OUT AREA RIVERS REMAIN WELL BELOW ACTION
STAGE AND WE DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY MAIN STEM CONCERNS.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   77  94  76  95  76 /  40  40  30  40  30
Panama City   80  90  80  90  80 /  30  40  30  40  30
Dothan        76  95  76  97  76 /  50  30  20  30  20
Albany        75  95  75  96  75 /  60  30  20  30  20
Valdosta      76  94  74  95  74 /  50  40  30  40  30
Cross City    76  90  76  92  75 /  40  50  40  50  40
Apalachicola  80  91  81  92  79 /  30  40  30  40  40

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...JLF
SHORT TERM...MOORE/CHANEY
LONG TERM...MOORE
AVIATION...WESTON
MARINE...MOORE
FIRE WEATHER...WESTON
HYDROLOGY...MOORE

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 E BALD POINT          29.95N 84.27W
07/15/2015  M39 MPH          GMZ730             FL   MESONET

            34 KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED AT WXFLOW SITE XAPB EAST OF
            BALD POINT

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW SAINT MARKS       30.19N 84.23W
07/15/2015                   WAKULLA            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON TOP OF A POWER LINE AT RIVER PLANTATION ROAD
            AND COASTAL HIGHWAY

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
450 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0445 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 E LEESBURG            31.73N 84.14W
07/15/2015                   LEE                GA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON LOVERS LANE ROAD

&&

DVD