Severe Thunderstorm Warning 276, NWS Tallahassee, FL

682 
WWUS52 KTAE 152047
SVSTAE

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
447 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

GAC177-243-273-321-152115-
/O.CON.KTAE.SV.W.0276.000000T0000Z-150715T2115Z/
RANDOLPH GA-TERRELL GA-WORTH GA-LEE GA-
447 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 515 PM EDT
FOR RANDOLPH...TERRELL...NORTHERN WORTH AND LEE COUNTIES...

AT 447 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH. THESE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
SHELLMAN TO 6 MILES WEST OF ARABI...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CUTHBERT...LEESBURG...DAWSON...ALBANY...SHELLMAN...WARWICK...
SASSER...BRONWOOD...DAWSON MUNICIPAL A/P...FORRESTER...SPRINGVALE...
STARKSVILLE...SHIVERS MILL...HEROD...WADES...PALMYRA...PETERSON
HILL...CARNEGIE...PHILEMA AND FOUNTAIN BRIDGE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN TALLAHASSEE.

&&

LAT...LON 3187 8443 3187 8429 3191 8392 3185 8394
      3184 8386 3180 8380 3163 8380 3162 8372
      3162 8458 3164 8458 3162 8459 3164 8465
      3162 8466 3162 8480 3188 8491 3192 8491
      3186 8447
TIME...MOT...LOC 2047Z 310DEG 24KT 3178 8468 3180 8385 

$$

42-DVD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1119 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

.Near Term [Through Today]...
Main update to the forecast this morning was to increase the
chance of showers and thunderstorms along the coast and over the
marine areas for this morning into the afternoon.

Have already seen a few severe storms across the CWA and expect
more this afternoon with the focus becoming more inland later
today.

&&

.Prev Discussion [715 AM EDT]...

.Short Term [Tonight Through Friday]...
There is a higher than normal degree of agreement among the
plethora of CAMs we have been looking at this morning that
convection will linger well into the evening hours. The latest
ECAM came in with likely PoPs across most of the region after 00Z.
While the overall severe threat will eventually diurnally ebb, the
atmosphere should remain sufficiently unstable for a threat to
last perhaps as late as midnight. Enhanced wording was maintained
in the weather grids through 04Z. Some graphics are being prepared
that will highlight the severe weather risk for today and tonight.

A surface cold front will settle to a position just north of the
forecast area on Thursday morning and may actually dip into our
northernmost zones. This boundary will couple with residual TS
outflow boundaries and the sea breeze to trigger convection in a
very unstable environment. Marginally severe storms are expected
with wind/hail the primary threat. The current PoP for Thursday is
roughly 40-50%, but the latest ECAM came in with 80-90% PoPs south
of U.S. 84, so we would expect the official forecast to trend
upward in later packages. The remnant front will remain in the
vicinity on Friday with somewhat drier air working into our
northern zones. PoPs will be slightly lower north than south.
Temps will be running a couple of degrees above normal by day and
several degrees above at night.

.Long Term [Friday Night Through Wednesday]...
The eastern upper level trough will lift eastward during this
period which should allow the ridge to edge closer to the
region. This will bring another uptick in daytime temps. There
will be a surface through in the vicinity at least through the
weekend, and of course there will be the typical mesoscale
boundaries around to trigger convection each day. Daytime PoPs
will generally hover in the 35-45% range through the period.

.Aviation...

[Through 12Z Thursday] Showers and storms are already developing
across the northeast Gulf of Mexico and adjacent coastline. Some
of the storms could affect ECP and TLH this morning prior to 15Z.
Otherwise, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected
this afternoon with all terminals possibly affected with gusty
winds and brief IFR visibilities. More organized thunderstorms are
possible around DHN and ABY later in the afternoon, so 35 knot
gusts in a TEMPO group were maintained for those terminals. Outside
of thunderstorms, VFR conditions should generally prevail.

.Marine...
The pressure gradient across the northeastern Gulf of Mexico will
remain tighter than is typical for mid summer. The result will be
a continuation of WSW winds around 15 knots, occasionally
increasing to cautionary levels through Thursday night. Conditions
will be unsettled over the waters during this time with a few
rounds of strong to severe storms possible. By Friday, winds will
finally drop back to seasonal speeds with daily enhancements each
afternoon and evening in the sea breeze.

.Fire Weather...
Hazardous fire weather conditions are not expected over the next
several days.

.Hydrology...
Area rivers remain well below action stage and we do not
anticipate any main stem concerns. That said, some localized
flooding will be possible due to training of thunderstorms over
the next couple of days. While most areas will get lower amounts,
several inches of rain will be possible in localized areas.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...

Tallahassee   93  77  94  77  96 /  50  30  50  30  40
Panama City   88  80  89  80  90 /  70  30  40  30  40
Dothan        97  76  96  76  98 /  40  50  40  20  30
Albany        96  75  95  75  96 /  60  60  30  20  30
Valdosta      94  75  94  75  96 /  50  40  40  30  40
Cross City    88  76  91  76  93 /  70  40  50  30  40
Apalachicola  89  80  92  80  93 /  70  30  40  30  30

&&

.TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
AL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

NEAR TERM...JLF
SHORT TERM...WOOL
LONG TERM...WOOL
AVIATION...LAMERS
MARINE...WOOL
FIRE WEATHER...LAMERS
HYDROLOGY...WOOL

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
144 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     MARINE TSTM WIND 4 E BALD POINT          29.95N 84.27W
07/15/2015  M39 MPH          GMZ730             FL   MESONET

            34 KNOT WIND GUST MEASURED AT WXFLOW SITE XAPB EAST OF
            BALD POINT

&&

DVD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
327 PM EDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0320 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW SAINT MARKS       30.19N 84.23W
07/15/2015                   WAKULLA            FL   911 CALL CENTER

            TREE DOWN ON TOP OF A POWER LINE AT RIVER PLANTATION ROAD
            AND COASTAL HIGHWAY

&&

DVD