Alert archive / Colorado / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 490

August 17, 201526 counties in Colorado

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Aug 17, 2015, 2:32 PM MDT for 26 counties in Colorado. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Aug 17, 2015, 2:32 PM MDT (20:32 UTC)
Expired
Aug 17, 2015, 9:51 PM MDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2.5 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 26 counties

Adams County, CO, Arapahoe County, CO, Baca County, CO, Bent County, CO, Boulder County, CO, Broomfield County, CO, Cheyenne County, CO, Crowley County, CO, Denver County, CO, Douglas County, CO, El Paso County, CO, Elbert County, CO, Jefferson County, CO, Kiowa County, CO, Kit Carson County, CO, Larimer County, CO, Lincoln County, CO, Logan County, CO, Morgan County, CO, Otero County, CO, Phillips County, CO, Prowers County, CO, Pueblo County, CO, Washington County, CO, Weld County, CO, Yuma County, CO

The radar

The Denver radar (KFTG), 27 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
10%
Ten or more severe hail reports
70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

34 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 17, 2:32 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUClear Creek, Jefferson16 min
Aug 17, 2:48 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBEl Paso27 min
Aug 17, 3:07 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUDouglas, Jefferson38 min
Aug 17, 3:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBEl Paso36 min
Aug 17, 3:17 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUDouglas, Elbert28 min
Aug 17, 3:18 PM MDTTornado WarningBOUDouglas, Jefferson27 min
Aug 17, 3:34 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUDouglas, Elbert26 min
Aug 17, 3:43 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUMorgan, Weld47 min
Aug 17, 3:43 PM MDTTornado Warning Tornado observedBOUDouglas32 min
Aug 17, 3:47 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUArapahoe, Elbert, Lincoln, Washington43 min
Aug 17, 3:49 PM MDTTornado WarningPUBEl Paso, Teller26 min
Aug 17, 3:51 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUElbert39 min
Aug 17, 3:55 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBEl Paso50 min
Aug 17, 3:56 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUAdams, Arapahoe, Elbert49 min
Aug 17, 4:05 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUElbert40 min
Aug 17, 4:09 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBEl Paso, Teller15 min
Aug 17, 4:13 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBEl Paso25 min
Aug 17, 4:21 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUWashington24 min
Aug 17, 4:28 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUAdams, Arapahoe, Elbert, Lincoln, Logan, Morgan and 1 more47 min
Aug 17, 4:33 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningBOUElbert, Lincoln3 hr
Aug 17, 4:38 PM MDTTornado WarningBOULincoln37 min
Aug 17, 5:07 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOUElbert, Lincoln, Morgan, Washington38 min
Aug 17, 5:12 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDCheyenne, Kit Carson63 min
Aug 17, 5:42 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOULincoln48 min
Aug 17, 5:57 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBBent, Crowley, Otero48 min
Aug 17, 6:03 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningGLDCheyenne57 min
Aug 17, 6:15 PM MDTTornado WarningPUBCrowley, Otero23 min
Aug 17, 6:18 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBBent42 min
Aug 17, 6:44 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOULogan, Phillips, Sedgwick46 min
Aug 17, 6:58 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBBent23 min
Aug 17, 7:26 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningBOULogan, Phillips, Sedgwick14 min
Aug 17, 7:27 PM MDTFlash Flood WarningPUBBent, Prowers4 hr
Aug 17, 7:52 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBBaca, Bent, Prowers68 min
Aug 17, 8:59 PM MDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningPUBBaca28 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Denver, CO (KDEN), launched 12:00Z, 8.5 hours before the alert went out and 86 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2015-08-17Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 318 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Denver, CO at 12:00Z on 2015-08-17The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -36 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
318 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-267 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1605 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
34 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-36 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
5 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
-0.1

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

558 
WWUS20 KWNS 172029
SEL0  
SPC WW 172029
COZ000-180500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 490
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
230 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN COLORADO

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 230 PM UNTIL
  1100 PM MDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL LIKELY WITH ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS
    TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO MOVE / DEVELOP EAST FROM THE CO
FRONT RANGE THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS
POSSIBLY FORMING FARTHER EAST ACROSS THE ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
SUPERCELLS WITH VERY LARGE HAIL...LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND...AND A FEW
TORNADOES APPEAR LIKELY. THE STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO ONE OR TWO
CLUSTERS LATER TONIGHT.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTHEAST OF FORT
COLLINS COLORADO TO 10 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LA JUNTA COLORADO.
 FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30025.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Aug 16, 9:04 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCProwers86 min
Aug 17, 1:06 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCCostilla, Crowley, Huerfano, Las Animas, Otero, Pueblo2 hr
Aug 17, 1:59 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Broomfield, Cheyenne, Denver, Douglas and 8 more2 hr
Aug 17, 4:41 PM MDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Arapahoe, Bent, Cheyenne, Crowley, Elbert and 11 more94 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Colorado, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.