Severe Thunderstorm Warning 241, NWS Pueblo, CO

960 
WWUS55 KPUB 172102
SVSPUB

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
302 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

COC041-172115-
/O.CON.KPUB.SV.W.0241.000000T0000Z-150817T2115Z/
EL PASO CO-
302 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 315 PM MDT
FOR NORTHEASTERN EL PASO COUNTY...

AT 302 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER CALHAN...OR 31
MILES NORTHEAST OF COLORADO SPRINGS...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS AND QUARTER SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...HAIL DAMAGE TO VEHICLES IS EXPECTED. EXPECT WIND DAMAGE TO 
         ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALHAN AND RAMAH. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WARNED AREA. TORNADOES CAN
DEVELOP QUICKLY FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH A TORNADO IS NOT
IMMEDIATELY LIKELY...IF ONE IS SPOTTED...ACT QUICKLY AND MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE...SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR
SMALL INTERIOR ROOM.

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3884 10405 3893 10438 3912 10437 3913 10405
TIME...MOT...LOC 2102Z 278DEG 18KT 3902 10429 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

PGW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
242 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 239 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

UPDATED FOR TORNADO WATCH MOST OF SOUTHEAST PLAINS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING UNTIL 11 PM.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

LOADED IN LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA FOR
NEXT 24 HOURS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.  EXPECT
AN ACTIVE SEVERE WEATHER AFTERNOON/EVENING OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 616 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

UPDATED POPS/WX TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLD TS WHICH CONTINUE TO
DEVELOP OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS VALLEY. SHOULD SEE THINGS
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...BEFORE MORE STORMS DEVELOP
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ROSE

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

 ...THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

CURRENTLY...SHOWERS AND A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO
MOVE TO THE S AND E ACROSS THE FAR SERN PLAINS. A FEW AREAS OF LOW
CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE I-25
CORRIDOR...AND WILL LINGER OVER THE ERN PLAINS THROUGH THIS MORNING.
ABUNDANT MOISTURE IS NOTED ACROSS THE CWA...WITH DEW POINTS IN THE
UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE PLAINS...AND 40S TO NR 50 FOR THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

ALL THE INGREDIENTS COMING TOGETHER TODAY FOR A POTENTIALLY MODERATE
IMPACT EVENT WITH THE THREAT OF SEVERE WX ALONG WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING. A ROBUST SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS MOVING
THROUGH SRN OR THIS MORNING...AND WILL MOVE INTO SRN WY THIS
AFTERNOON BEFORE EJECTING INTO THE NRN PLAINS TUE MORNING. THIS
DISTURBANCE WILL BRING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE THROUGH NORTHEASTERN CO
IN THE PEAK HEATING HOURS...FROM ABOUT 21Z TO 00Z THIS AFTERNOON.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SHOULD SEE MODERATE INSTABILITY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE PLAINS...WITH CAPE AS HIGH AS 3000 J/KG ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE. ALONG WITH BULK SHEARS FROM
30-40 KTS...THIS WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS
ALONG WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS LATER TODAY. LATEST DAY ONE OUTLOOK
FROM SPC HAS THE ERN MTS AND PLAINS IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE....AND THE REST OF THE CWA IN A MARGINAL RISK. COULD SEE
SEVERE STORMS DEVELOP PRETTY MUCH ANYWHERE ACROSS OUR AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE HIGHEST RISK FOR SEVERE WILL BE ACROSS
NRN AND ERN EL PASO COUNTY...THE PALMER
DVD...KIOWA...BENT...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. THIS IS WHERE
THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WILL BE HIGHEST. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE
FOR LARGE HAIL TO GOLF BALL SIZE. THE TORNADO THREAT...WHILE
LOW...IS NOT INSIGNIFICANT AS WINDS WILL BACK STRONGLY BEHIND THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. IF A SUPERCELL CAN FORM
ALONG THIS ADVANCING BOUNDARY...COULD SEE A TORNADO OR TWO DEVELOP
OVER THE AREAS JUST MENTIONED.

THREAT WILL TRANSITION TO HEAVY RAIN AS STORMS CONSOLIDATE INTO ONE
OR TWO MCS THIS EVENING OVER THE ERN PLAINS. THIS WILL BE
PARTICULARLY TRUE OVER THE LOWER ARKANSAS FOR AREAS THAT HAVE JUST
SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL AND LOCALIZED FLOODING. STORMS WILL GRADUALLY
SHIFT TO THE E AND S LATE TONIGHT AS THE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH THE
NRN ROCKIES AND ON TO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS. COULD ONCE AGAIN SEE SOME
LOCALIZED LOW CIGS DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT...BUT INCREASED NW FLOW
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SHORT WAVE SHOULD HELP LIMIT THE EXTENT OF LOW
CLOUDS FOR TUE MORNING.

IT SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE DAY OF WX THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE...SO
EVERYONE IN SE CO SHOULD MAINTAIN A HEIGHTENED AWARENESS OF THE
LATEST FORECAST INFO TODAY. ROSE

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY MORNING WILL
MOVE INTO THE THE UPPER MIDWEST BY EARLY WED...KEEPING STRONG
NORTHWEST UPPER FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS COLORADO INTO WED. SURFACE
COLD FRONT WILL RACE SOUTH THROUGH THE AREA TUE MORNING...WITH
DRIER AIR MASS SPREADING ACROSS THE STATE IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE
DAY. LOW LEVEL WINDS DO OBTAIN AN EASTERLY COMPONENT FOR A TIME
TUES AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH MAY LEAD TO SOME WEAK
CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS...THOUGH OVER
PAST 24 HRS OR SO MODELS HAVE TRENDED DRIER ACROSS THE
AREA...KEEPING BEST FORCING FARTHER NORTH IN NE COLORADO/WRN NEB.
NEW SWODY2 HAS CAUGHT ON TO THE IDEA OF A FASTER FRONTAL PASSAGE
TUE...WITH THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS NOW SOUTH AND EAST OF
COLORADO. MAX TEMPS WILL BE COOLER AREA-WIDE TUE AFTERNOON IN THE
WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH WARMEST READINGS NEAR THE NM
BORDER.

REMAINDER OF THE WEEK LOOKS FAIRLY QUIET AS GENERALLY DRY
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES INTO FRI. SUPPOSE THERE COULD BE SOME
ISOLATED WEAK CONVECTION OVER THE HIGHER PEAKS EACH AFTERNOON WITH
RESIDUAL MOISTURE...BUT OVERALL PATTERN WILL STAY FAIRLY DRY WITH
COOL TEMPERATURES WED WARMING BACK TO MORE TYPICAL AUGUST LEVELS
THU/FRI. NEW UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES LATE
FRI...THEN SWINGS INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS OVER THE
WEEKEND...WHILE UPPER HIGH CENTER SHIFTS EASTWARD INTO TEX BY LATE
SUN. PATTERN SHOULD GRADUALLY DRAW LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE
NORTHWARD LATE FRI INTO SAT...BEFORE NEXT SURFACE COLD FRONT DROPS
SOUTH THROUGH THE STATE SUN AND BEGINS TO PUSH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BACK TO OUR SOUTH. FORECAST THUS SHOWS EXPANDING CHANCES FOR TSRA
OVER THE AREA FRI-SUN...WITH TEMPS AT OR A LITTLE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1122 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

STRONG SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK EAST ACROSS FLIGHT AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE REGION...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. STORMS TODAY WILL TEND TO BE ON THE
STRONG TO SEVERE SIDE. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...HEAVY
RAIN AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING ARE EXPECTED FROM SOME STORMS.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL RANGE FROM MVFR TO IFR TO LIFR UNDER
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL START TO DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z...AND THEN BECOME MOST WIDESPREAD OVER
THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS FROM 21Z TO 06Z. IMPROVEMENT FROM
THE WEST ALL AREAS BY 06Z...ALTHOUGH SOME AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
STRATUS MAY DEVELOP ACROSS THE PLAINS OVERNIGHT IN THE WAKE OF
HEAVY PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE KCOS...KPUB AND KALS TAF SITES...MUCH THE SAME
SCENARIO.  ALL 3 TAF SITES WILL BE SUBJECT TO THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...
ESPECIALLY AT KCOS AND KPUB. VCTS APPROACHING KALS AT THIS
TIME...SO POSSIBLE THERE BEGINNING 19Z. FOR KCOS...STORMS
WILL BE IN THE VICINITY AFTER 20Z...AND FOR KPUB AFTER
21Z.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...LW
SHORT TERM...ROSE
LONG TERM...PETERSEN
AVIATION...LW

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1154 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

COZ058>089-093>099-181800-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST LAKE COUNTY ABOVE 11000 FT-
LEADVILLE VICINITY/LAKE COUNTY BELOW 11000 FT-
EASTERN SAWATCH MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
WESTERN CHAFFEE COUNTY BETWEEN 9000 AND 11000 FT-
CENTRAL CHAFFEE COUNTY BELOW 9000 FT-
WESTERN MOSQUITO RANGE/EAST CHAFFEE COUNTY ABOVE 9000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY WEST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
SAGUACHE COUNTY EAST OF CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BELOW 10000 FT-
LA GARITA MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
UPPER RIO GRANDE VALLEY/EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS BELOW 10000 FT-
EASTERN SAN JUAN MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
DEL NORTE VICINITY/NORTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
ALAMOSA VICINITY/CENTRAL SAN LUIS VALLEY BELOW 8500 FT-
SOUTHERN SAN LUIS VALLEY-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 8500 AND 11000 FT-
NORTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FEET-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 7500 AND 11000 FT-
SOUTHERN SANGRE DE CRISTO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 11000 FT-
NORTHWESTERN FREMONT COUNTY ABOVE 8500 FT-
WESTERN/CENTRAL FREMONT COUNTY BELOW 8500 FT-
WET MOUNTAIN VALLEY BELOW 8500 FEET-
WET MOUNTAINS BETWEEN 6300 AND 10000 FT-
WET MOUNTAINS ABOVE 10000 FT-
TELLER COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE ABOVE 7500 FT/PIKES PEAK BETWEEN
7500 AND 11000 FT-PIKES PEAK ABOVE 11000 FT-
CANON CITY VICINITY/EASTERN FREMONT COUNTY-
NORTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/MONUMENT RIDGE/RAMPART RANGE BELOW
7500 FT-
COLORADO SPRINGS VICINITY/SOUTHERN EL PASO COUNTY/RAMPART RANGE
BELOW 7400 FT-PUEBLO AND VICINITY/PUEBLO COUNTY BELOW 6300 FT-
WALSENBURG VICINITY/UPPER HUERFANO RIVER BASIN BELOW 7500 FT-
TRINIDAD VICINITY/WESTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY BELOW 7500 FT-
CROWLEY COUNTY-LA JUNTA VICINITY/OTERO COUNTY-
EASTERN LAS ANIMAS COUNTY-WESTERN KIOWA COUNTY-
EASTERN KIOWA COUNTY-LAS ANIMAS VICINITY/BENT COUNTY-
LAMAR VICINITY/PROWERS COUNTY-SPRINGFIELD VICINITY/BACA COUNTY-
1154 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...EAST
CENTRAL...SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON...BECOMING WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PRODUCE STRONG TO SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND PLAINS. PRIMARY STORM
THREATS WILL INCLUDE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...FLASH
FLOODING AND LIGHTNING.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE GREATEST OVER PORTIONS OF EL
PASO...BENT...KIOWA...PROWERS...AND BACA COUNTIES. A COUPLE OF
STORMS IN THESE AREAS COULD PRODUCE HAIL UP TO GOLF BALL SIZE...
DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO OR TWO.

THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING WILL INCREASE
THROUGH THE EVENING OVER THE EASTERN PLAINS. AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY
SEEN HEAVY RAINFALL...AS WELL AS URBAN AREAS...WILL SEE A THREAT
OF FLOODING LASTING THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
EACH DAY...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREATS FROM THESE
STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER CONDITIONS THAT MEET REPORTING CRITERIA FOR SPOTTERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN COLORADO.

50/50

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PUEBLO CO
1236 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0600 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 NNE COLORADO SPRINGS  38.88N 104.80W
08/17/2015  M0.44 INCH       EL PASO            CO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

PP