Severe Thunderstorm Warning 355, NWS Goodland, KS

538 
WWUS53 KGLD 180015
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
615 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

COC017-180100-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0355.000000T0000Z-150818T0100Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
615 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR CHEYENNE COUNTY...

AT 614 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 9 MILES NORTH OF
KIT CARSON...OR 25 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING EAST AT 25
MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON...AROYA...WILD HORSE AND FIRSTVIEW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3904 10316 3904 10234 3861 10259 3861 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 290DEG 22KT 3889 10282 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

LUNDQUIST

792 
WWUS53 KGLD 180027
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
627 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

COC017-180100-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0355.000000T0000Z-150818T0100Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
627 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY...

AT 626 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED 6 MILES NORTHWEST
OF KIT CARSON...OR 28 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...70 MPH WIND GUSTS AND PENNY SIZE HAIL. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT CONSIDERABLE TREE DAMAGE. DAMAGE IS LIKELY TO MOBILE 
         HOMES...ROOFS AND OUTBUILDINGS. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON...AROYA...WILD HORSE AND FIRSTVIEW. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3904 10316 3904 10269 3893 10240 3861 10259
      3861 10317
TIME...MOT...LOC 0026Z 301DEG 17KT 3882 10288 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

LUNDQUIST

183 
WWUS53 KGLD 180042
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
642 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

COC017-180100-
/O.CON.KGLD.SV.W.0355.000000T0000Z-150818T0100Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
642 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 700 PM MDT
FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY...

AT 642 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED OVER KIT CARSON...
OR 22 MILES WEST OF CHEYENNE WELLS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
KIT CARSON...FIRSTVIEW AND WILD HORSE. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD TO
FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
COLORADO.

LAT...LON 3901 10295 3896 10270 3888 10243 3861 10259
      3861 10317 3885 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0042Z 304DEG 19KT 3878 10277 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

LUNDQUIST

560 
WWUS53 KGLD 180058
SVSGLD

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
658 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

COC017-180107-
/O.EXP.KGLD.SV.W.0355.000000T0000Z-150818T0100Z/
CHEYENNE CO-
658 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WESTERN CHEYENNE COUNTY WILL
EXPIRE AT 700 PM MDT...
                
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS WEAKENED BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS...AND NO LONGER POSE AN IMMEDIATE THREAT TO LIFE OR PROPERTY. 
THEREFORE THE WARNING WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.  HOWEVER GUSTY 
WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE STILL POSSIBLE WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 PM MDT FOR CHEYENNE 
COUNTY.

LAT...LON 3901 10295 3896 10270 3888 10243 3861 10259
      3861 10317 3885 10306
TIME...MOT...LOC 0055Z 290DEG 22KT 3878 10277 

$$

LUNDQUIST

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
518 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

ADVANCING COLD FRONT/COLD POOL FROM THE NORTHEAST HAS CLEARED ST
FRANCIS AND COLBY AND RAPIDLY HEADING TOWARDS THE GLD AREA. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND SHIFT AND EVEN MORE INCREASED LOW LEVEL
SHEAR...MESOANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG CINH IN COOLER AIR TO THE
NORTH. THINK THIS WILL FOR AT LEAST A WHILE ACT AS A NORTHERN
LIMIT TO SFC BASED CONVECTION AND HAVE HIGHLIGHTED AND INCREASED
POPS IN AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF AFOREMENTIONED FEATURE. ALTHOUGH
STORMS ARE MOVING...RAINFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH AND A HALF PER
HOUR HAVE BEEN OBSERVED KEEPING HEAVY RAIN SIG THREAT. QUICK
MOTION SHOULD LIMIT FLOOD POTENTIAL AND AT THIS TIME HAVE OPTED
AWAY FROM ANY LARGE SCALE WATCH.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 250 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

EARLY AFTERNOON WV IMAGERY AND RAP UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOW
STRENGTHENING TROUGH ACROSS MONTANA WITH SHARP PV HEIGHT ANOMALY
DIGGING INTO NORTHWESTERN WYOMING. DIFFLUENT FLOW IS IN PLACE
ACROSS NORTHERN COLORADO WITH INCREASING DIVERGENT SIGNATURE
AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL JET. AT THE SURFACE A STATIONARY
FRONT EXTENDS FROM NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS TO SOUTHEAST
COLORADO...ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST PART OF OUR CWA...WITH A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS EXPENDING ACROSS THE NW PART OF OUR FORECAST
AREA.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD INITIATE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO THIS
AFTERNOON WITH ACTIVITY INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND SPREADING EAST
INTO OUR CWA THROUGH THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT. BEST FORCING IS
ADVERTISED 03-06Z OVER OUR CWA AND QUICKLY TRANSITIONS EASTWARD
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW DEEPENS AND EVENTUALLY
CLOSES OFF OVER NEBRASKA DRY SLOT/SUBSIDENT REGION WILL MOVE OVER
OUR CWA WHICH SHOULD RAPIDLY DECREASE ANY SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM
CHANCES. STRONG COLD FRONT WILL DROP DOWN ACROSS THE REGION
TUESDAY MORNING AND COMBINED WITH INCREASING SUBSIDENCE BRING
MILD/WINDY (VERY FALL-LIKE) CONDITIONS TO OUR CWA. THERE MAY ALSO
BE A REDEVELOPMENT OF DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS OVER SW NEBRASKA
DEPENDING ON THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY/MIXING AND FRONTAL TIMING.

REGARDING SEVERE POTENTIAL TONIGHT...RAP ANALYSIS SHOWS SB CAPE
AXIS 2500-3500 J/KG AND DEEP BULK EFFECTIVE SHEER VALUES 40-50KT
ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO. CONSIDERING THE DEEP LAYER SHEER AND
INSTABILITY WE ARE ANTICIPATING ORGANIZED SUPERCELLS DEVELOPING
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND SLOWLY PROGRESSING EASTWARD (MEAN STORM
MOTIONS 10-20KT). THERE IS A WINDOW WITH LOW LEVEL TURNING ALONG
SURFACE TROUGH AXIS FOR TORNADOES WITH MORE ORGANIZED CELLS...WITH
PRIMARY THREAT VERY LARGE HAIL (2"+) AND DAMAGING WINDS. AS THIS
ACTIVITY ORGANIZES INTO A MCS/THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER TORNADO THREAT
SHOULD DIMINISH. TORNADO WATCH 490 IS CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR OUR
EASTERN COLORADO COUNTIES...AND PATTERN IS BEING MONITORED FOR
ANY OTHER POSSIBLE SEVERE WATCHES AS THIS UNFOLDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING.

.LONG TERM...(TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 156 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

JET MAX ROTATING AROUND BACK OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING UNDER THE DIVERGENT LEFT EXIT REGION. MODEL QPF IS
LIGHT...GENERALLY BETWEEN A TENTH AND A QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT
RATHER WIDESPREAD SO POPS MAY NEED TO BE INCREASED IF THOSE TRENDS
CONTINUE. POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS ACTUALLY SHOW ICE IN THE COLUMN
BUT THE SURFACE BASED WARM LAYER EXTENDS TO AROUND 6KFT AGL WHICH
WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO KEEP ANY KIND OF SNOW FROM
REACHING THE GROUND. LOW TEMPERATURES A BIT TRICKY...WITH CLOUDS
POTENTIALLY KEEPING THEM FROM REACHING THE UPPER 40S BUT IF THE
RAIN IS PROLONGED MIGHT WET BULB DOWN TO NEAR THAT ANYWAY. EITHER
WAY IT WILL BE A RATHER CHILLY MORNING FOR MID AUGUST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE OUT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DURING THAT TIME WILL BE SLIM TO NONE WITH NO UPPER SHORTWAVES IN
THE MODELS AND LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABLE. TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND QUICKLY AFTER THE MIDWEEK COOL DOWN WITH ABOVE NORMAL
HIGHS BY FRIDAY. THE UPPER FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO ZONAL AND THEN
SOUTHWEST OVER THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS DYNAMICS AND SURFACE COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
LITTLE EARLY...BUT RIGHT NOW BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR WILL BE CONFINED TO EASTERN PARTS OF THE FORECAST
AREA...NORTON TO GOVE...WHICH WOULD BE THE FAVORED AREAS FOR ANY
SEVERE THREAT. IF THAT TIMING VERIFIES SUNDAY AND MONDAY WILL BE
DRY AND A LITTLE COOLER.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 504 PM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

COMPLICATED AVIATION FORECAST ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA AS ADVANCING
COLD POOL NEAR KGLD BRING A WIND SHIFT AND INCREASED
STABILITY...WHILE STRONG CONVECTIVE COMPLEX BRINGING IFR
CONDITIONSAND STRONG WINDS FROM THE WEST. STORMS WILL BE NEAR
KGLD AROUND 2 UTC...BUT THINK THE HIGH END CONDITIONS APPEAR MORE
LIKELY TO THE SOUTH OF THE TERMINAL. MCK MAY SEE A BRIEF REPRIEVE
FROM IFR CIGS BUT EXPECT STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH A
PROLONGED PERIODS OF CIGS LESS THAN 1000 FEET. DETAILS ARE A BIT
MURKY AND WILL REFINE AS POSSIBLE WHEN THINGS CLEAR UP.

&&

.GLD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
CO...NONE.
NE...NONE.
&&

UPDATE...JRM
SHORT TERM...DR
LONG TERM...024
AVIATION...JRM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1044 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-181645-
YUMA-KIT CARSON-CHEYENNE CO-CHEYENNE KS-RAWLINS-DECATUR-NORTON-
SHERMAN-THOMAS-SHERIDAN-GRAHAM-WALLACE-LOGAN-GOVE-GREELEY-WICHITA-
DUNDY-HITCHCOCK-RED WILLOW-
1044 AM MDT MON AUG 17 2015 /1144 AM CDT MON AUG 17 2015/

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL COLORADO...
EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
WITH COVERAGE INCREASING DURING THE EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY
MOVE EAST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER THE BEST CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND WEST OF HIGHWAY
25 IN KANSAS AND NEBRASKA. LARGE HAIL GREATER THAN 2
INCHES...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH....AND A FEW TORNADOES
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SLOW STORM MOTIONS AND HEAVY RAIN COULD ALSO
LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY AT LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED
HEAVY RAINFALL SUNDAY EVENING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS
EVENING.