Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 436

July 18, 20154 states

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 18, 2015, 1:31 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 18, 2015, 1:31 PM CDT (18:31 UTC)
Expired
Jul 18, 2015, 6:28 PM CDT
In force
5 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
2 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 54 counties

Clinton County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Scott County, IA, Boone County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cook County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Ford County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Lake County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Will County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Benton County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Lake County, IN, Newton County, IN, Porter County, IN, Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI

The radar

The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
50%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
40%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 18, 1:57 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXLafayette18 min
Jul 18, 1:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDane, Green, Jefferson, Rock31 min
Jul 18, 2:06 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTMcHenry23 min
Jul 18, 2:09 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXKenosha, Racine, Walworth51 min
Jul 18, 2:19 PM CDTTornado WarningLOTMcHenry27 min
Jul 18, 2:24 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXDodge, Green, Jefferson, Rock, Walworth, Washington and 1 more51 min
Jul 18, 2:45 PM CDTTornado WarningMKXRock, Walworth30 min
Jul 18, 2:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXKenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Waukesha35 min
Jul 18, 3:04 PM CDTTornado WarningMKXKenosha, Racine, Walworth26 min
Jul 18, 3:10 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLake35 min
Jul 18, 3:19 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook26 min
Jul 18, 3:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningMKXKenosha, Milwaukee, Racine38 min
Jul 18, 3:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook13 min
Jul 18, 3:56 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTLake, McHenry6 hr
Jul 18, 4:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTPorter23 min
Jul 18, 4:47 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTJasper, Porter13 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-07-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2984 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-07-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -27 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2984 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
858 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

567 
WWUS20 KWNS 181829
SEL6  
SPC WW 181829
IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-190300-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  FAR EASTERN IOWA
  NORTHERN ILLINOIS
  NORTHWEST INDIANA
  SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
  LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
  1000 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH
OVER SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THE TORNADO
THREAT GREATEST OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS
AFTERNOON.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
LONEROCK WISCONSIN TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF VALPARAISO
INDIANA.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...CORFIDI

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 18, 12:31 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy and 22 more119 min
Jul 18, 5:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall and 1 more92 min
Jul 18, 12:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Allen, Blackford, Carroll, Cass, Clinton and 20 more2 hr
Jul 18, 3:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllen, Carroll, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton and 16 more84 min
Jul 18, 3:59 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAdams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 18 more5 hr
Jul 17, 8:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 5 more5 hr
Jul 17, 8:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee, Clay and 15 more3 hr
Jul 17, 11:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Ida and 12 more2 hr
Jul 18, 2:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHoward, Mitchell, Winneshiek, Worth85 min
Jul 18, 3:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Winneshiek84 min
Jul 18, 6:37 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBenzie, Lake, Manistee, Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo and 3 more53 min
Jul 18, 12:23 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuffalo, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson, La Crosse, Monroe and 5 more67 min
Jul 18, 12:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Barron, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn and 16 more5 hr
Jul 18, 3:56 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Calumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac and 16 more4 hr
Jul 18, 5:24 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Calumet, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Manitowoc, Outagamie and 5 more96 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2015Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2015Tornado Watches in Indiana, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.