Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2015
Tornado Watch 436
The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 18, 2015, 1:31 PM CDT for 4 states. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Jul 18, 2015, 1:31 PM CDT (18:31 UTC)
- Expired
- Jul 18, 2015, 6:28 PM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 2 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 54 counties
Clinton County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Scott County, IA, Boone County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cook County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Ford County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Lake County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Will County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Benton County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Lake County, IN, Newton County, IN, Porter County, IN, Columbia County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI
The radar
The Milwaukee radar (KMKX), 52 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 18:30 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 50%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 20%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 70%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 20%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 40%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 30%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 95%
Warnings issued inside it
16 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 1:57 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Lafayette | 18 min |
| Jul 18, 1:59 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Dane, Green, Jefferson, Rock | 31 min |
| Jul 18, 2:06 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | McHenry | 23 min |
| Jul 18, 2:09 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Kenosha, Racine, Walworth | 51 min |
| Jul 18, 2:19 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | LOT | McHenry | 27 min |
| Jul 18, 2:24 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Dodge, Green, Jefferson, Rock, Walworth, Washington and 1 more | 51 min |
| Jul 18, 2:45 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Rock, Walworth | 30 min |
| Jul 18, 2:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine, Rock, Walworth, Waukesha | 35 min |
| Jul 18, 3:04 PM CDT | Tornado Warning | MKX | Kenosha, Racine, Walworth | 26 min |
| Jul 18, 3:10 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Lake | 35 min |
| Jul 18, 3:19 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Cook | 26 min |
| Jul 18, 3:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | MKX | Kenosha, Milwaukee, Racine | 38 min |
| Jul 18, 3:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Cook | 13 min |
| Jul 18, 3:56 PM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LOT | Lake, McHenry | 6 hr |
| Jul 18, 4:22 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Porter | 23 min |
| Jul 18, 4:47 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LOT | Jasper, Porter | 13 min |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 6.5 hours before the alert went out and 167 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 2984 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -64 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 858 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 31 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -27 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.2
- Supercell composite
- 1.4
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
567
WWUS20 KWNS 181829
SEL6
SPC WW 181829
IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-WIZ000-LMZ000-190300-
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 436
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
130 PM CDT SAT JUL 18 2015
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
FAR EASTERN IOWA
NORTHERN ILLINOIS
NORTHWEST INDIANA
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WISCONSIN
LAKE MICHIGAN
* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 130 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CDT.
* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A FEW TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/STRENGTH
OVER SOUTHERN WI OVER THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...WITH OTHER DEVELOPMENT
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON OVER FAR EASTERN IA AND NORTHERN IL.
POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR SUPERCELLS WITH DAMAGING WIND...HAIL...AND
POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT...WITH THE TORNADO
THREAT GREATEST OVER SOUTHERN/EASTERN WI AND NORTHERN IL THIS
AFTERNOON.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
LONEROCK WISCONSIN TO 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF VALPARAISO
INDIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
&&
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.
...CORFIDISPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jul 18, 12:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Boone, Bureau, Carroll, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy and 22 more | 119 min |
| Jul 18, 5:43 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall and 1 more | 92 min |
| Jul 18, 12:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Adams, Allen, Blackford, Carroll, Cass, Clinton and 20 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 18, 3:21 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allen, Carroll, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart, Fulton and 16 more | 84 min |
| Jul 18, 3:59 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Adams, Allen, Blackford, Cass, DeKalb, Elkhart and 18 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 17, 8:55 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 5 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 17, 8:57 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Audubon, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee, Clay and 15 more | 3 hr |
| Jul 17, 11:26 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Ida and 12 more | 2 hr |
| Jul 18, 2:05 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Howard, Mitchell, Winneshiek, Worth | 85 min |
| Jul 18, 3:06 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Allamakee, Winneshiek | 84 min |
| Jul 18, 6:37 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Benzie, Lake, Manistee, Mason, Muskegon, Newaygo and 3 more | 53 min |
| Jul 18, 12:23 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Buffalo, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson, La Crosse, Monroe and 5 more | 67 min |
| Jul 18, 12:41 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adams, Barron, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn and 16 more | 5 hr |
| Jul 18, 3:56 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Brown, Calumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac and 16 more | 4 hr |
| Jul 18, 5:24 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Brown, Calumet, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Manitowoc, Outagamie and 5 more | 96 min |
Nearby
Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2015Tornado Watches in Wisconsin, 2015Tornado Watches in Indiana, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.