Tornado Watch 438

Issued

Jul 18, 2015, 4:59 PM EDT (20:59 UTC)

Expired

Jul 18, 2015, 9:30 PM EDT

In force

5 hr

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

Largest hail expected

1.5 in

Strongest gust expected

60 kt

The Grand Rapids radar (KGRR), 60 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:03 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Two or more tornadoes

40%

One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes

20%

Ten or more severe wind reports

70%

One or more gusts of 65 knots or more

10%

Ten or more severe hail reports

30%

One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more

5%

Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports

90%

• Mesoscale Discussion 1463Jul 18, 1:26 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1467Jul 18, 4:21 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1470Jul 18, 6:43 PM EDT
• Mesoscale Discussion 1472Jul 18, 8:03 PM EDT

524 
WWUS20 KWNS 182056
SEL8  
SPC WW 182056
INZ000-MIZ000-OHZ000-LMZ000-190400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 438
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
500 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHERN INDIANA
  WESTERN LOWER MICHIGAN
  NORTHWEST OHIO
  LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON FROM 500 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT
  EDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  ISOLATED LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX NOW OVER SE WI/NE IL EXPECTED TO
MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY E OR ESE INTO PARTS OF LWR MI/NRN INDIANA
THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLY FORMING S AND
E OF THE CLUSTER. SOME OF THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DAMAGING
WIND...MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL...AND A COUPLE TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
MUSKEGON MICHIGAN TO 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FORT WAYNE INDIANA. 
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 436...WW 437...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 28030.


...CORFIDI

Tornado Watches in Indiana, 2015Tornado Watches in Michigan, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.