Alert archive / Illinois / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1464

July 18, 201528 counties in Illinois; 27 counties in Iowa; 25 counties in Wisconsin

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jul 18, 2015, 12:31 PM CDT for 28 counties in Illinois; 27 counties in Iowa; 25 counties in Wisconsin. It was in force for 119 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 18, 2015, 12:31 PM CDT (17:31 UTC)
Expired
Jul 18, 2015, 2:30 PM CDT
In force
119 min
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 80 counties

Allamakee County, IA, Benton County, IA, Black Hawk County, IA, Buchanan County, IA, Cedar County, IA, Clayton County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Delaware County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Fayette County, IA, Henry County, IA, Iowa County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jefferson County, IA, Johnson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Keokuk County, IA, Linn County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Mahaska County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Poweshiek County, IA, Scott County, IA, Tama County, IA, Van Buren County, IA, Washington County, IA, Boone County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Knox County, IL, Lake County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Marshall County, IL, McHenry County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Stark County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Will County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Columbia County, WI, Crawford County, WI, Dane County, WI, Dodge County, WI, Fond du Lac County, WI, Grant County, WI, Green County, WI, Green Lake County, WI, Iowa County, WI, Jefferson County, WI, Kenosha County, WI, Lafayette County, WI, Marquette County, WI, Milwaukee County, WI, Ozaukee County, WI, Racine County, WI, Richland County, WI, Rock County, WI, Sauk County, WI, Sheboygan County, WI, Vernon County, WI, Walworth County, WI, Washington County, WI, Waukesha County, WI, Winnebago County, WI

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 70 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:33 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 5.5 hours before the alert went out and 66 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-07-18Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 2984 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-07-18The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity -27 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
2984 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-64 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
858 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
31 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
-27 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.2
Supercell composite
1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 18, 1:31 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage and 20 more5 hr
Jul 18, 5:43 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Kane, Kankakee, Kendall and 1 more92 min
Jul 17, 8:55 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Ida, Lyon and 5 more5 hr
Jul 17, 8:57 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAudubon, Buena Vista, Calhoun, Carroll, Cherokee, Clay and 15 more3 hr
Jul 17, 11:26 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuena Vista, Cherokee, Clay, Dickinson, Emmet, Ida and 12 more2 hr
Jul 18, 2:05 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCHoward, Mitchell, Winneshiek, Worth85 min
Jul 18, 3:06 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Winneshiek84 min
Jul 18, 12:23 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBuffalo, Dunn, Eau Claire, Jackson, La Crosse, Monroe and 5 more67 min
Jul 18, 12:41 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Barron, Buffalo, Chippewa, Clark, Dunn and 16 more5 hr
Jul 18, 3:56 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBrown, Calumet, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac and 16 more4 hr
Jul 18, 5:24 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBrown, Calumet, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Manitowoc, Outagamie and 5 more96 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Illinois, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Iowa, 2015Mesoscale Discussions in Wisconsin, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.