Alert archive / Kansas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 428

July 15, 201519 counties in Kansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 15, 2015, 6:09 PM CDT for 19 counties in Kansas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 15, 2015, 6:09 PM CDT (23:09 UTC)
Expired: Jul 15, 2015, 10:34 PM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Clay County, KS, Cloud County, KS, Dickinson County, KS, Douglas County, KS, Franklin County, KS, Geary County, KS, Jackson County, KS, Jefferson County, KS, Lyon County, KS, Marshall County, KS, Morris County, KS, Osage County, KS, Ottawa County, KS, Pottawatomie County, KS, Republic County, KS, Riley County, KS, Shawnee County, KS, Wabaunsee County, KS, Washington County, KS

The radar

The Topeka radar (KTWX), 63 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 30%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 30%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 60%

Warnings issued inside it

6 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 15, 6:27 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Riley, Wabaunsee	48 min
Jul 15, 6:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Shawnee, Wabaunsee	38 min
Jul 15, 7:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Shawnee, Wabaunsee	50 min
Jul 15, 8:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Shawnee	14 min
Jul 15, 8:36 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Cloud, Republic	39 min
Jul 15, 9:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	TOP	Republic, Washington	46 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KFOE), launched 12:00Z, 11.2 hours before the alert went out and 108 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1938 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -170 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1392 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 13 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 48 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 84 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 1.4

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

568 
WWUS20 KWNS 152305
SEL8  
SPC WW 152305
KSZ000-160500-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 428
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
610 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  NORTHEAST KANSAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT FROM 610 PM UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
  ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...A FEW INTENSE STORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS EVENING WITH A RISK
FOR A COUPLE OF TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING OUTFLOW WINDS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 10 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
CONCORDIA KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTHEAST OF TOPEKA KANSAS.  FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
600. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29015.


...MEAD

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 14, 8:43 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Cheyenne, Finney, Greeley, Hamilton, Kearny, Logan and 6 more	2 hr
Jul 15, 3:37 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Cloud, Dickinson, Ellsworth, Geary, Lincoln and 12 more	83 min
Jul 15, 4:36 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Edwards, Ellis, Finney, Ford, Gove, Grant and 16 more	54 min
Jul 15, 5:47 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Clay, Cloud, Douglas, Geary, Jackson, Jefferson and 14 more	58 min

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Kansas, 2015 Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.