Severe Thunderstorm Warning 147, NWS Topeka, KS

903 
WWUS53 KTOP 160052
SVSTOP

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
752 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSC177-197-160115-
/O.CON.KTOP.SV.W.0147.000000T0000Z-150716T0115Z/
SHAWNEE-WABAUNSEE-
752 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 815 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHWESTERN SHAWNEE AND EAST CENTRAL WABAUNSEE COUNTIES...

AT 751 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WAS LOCATED NEAR 
DOVER...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH. THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF PRODUCING 
GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL...AS WELL AS TORRENTIAL RAINFALL.

HAZARD...GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AND 60 MPH WIND GUSTS. 

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED. 

IMPACT...PEOPLE AND ANIMALS OUTDOORS WILL BE INJURED. EXPECT HAIL 
         DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES. EXPECT 
         WIND DAMAGE TO ROOFS...SIDING AND TREES. 

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN TOPEKA...DOVER AND AUBURN. 

THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
 INTERSTATE 70 BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 340 AND 342...AND NEAR MILE
MARKER 353.
 KANSAS TURNPIKE BETWEEN MILE MARKERS 166 AND 170.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A
BUILDING.

&&

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT FOR EAST CENTRAL
KANSAS.

LAT...LON 3906 9607 3905 9577 3887 9578 3887 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0051Z 281DEG 18KT 3896 9587 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
652 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

...UPDATE TO AVIATION FORECAST DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

COMPLICATED FORECAST CONTINUES WITH MULTIPLE FEATURES ALOFT AND AT
THE SURFACE IN A POTENTIALLY VERY VOLATILE ATMOSPHERE. PRECIPITATION
HAS SLOWLY WANED ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE MORNING MESOSCALE
CONVECTIVE SYSTEM IN MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WITH SOME SIGNAL
OF THE OLD OUTFLOW NEAR CNU. WINDS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE OUTFLOW
VEERING WITH A LACK OF STRONG CONVERGENCE RESULTING. UPPER WAVE WITH
THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM WAS INTO WESTERN IOWA BUT THERE ARE INDICATIONS
OF A LEAST ONE WEAK WAVE IN THE TROPICAL PLUME OVER EASTERN
COLORADO, AND CONVECTION IS BECOMING MORE ROBUST THERE. THE OUTFLOW
AND RESIDUAL PRECIP IS HELPING KEEP FEELS-LIKE TEMPS MORE BEARABLE
TODAY WITH VALUES ABOVE 100 THE EXCEPTION.

MAIN SHORT-TERM CONCERN REMAINS TO BE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.
EASTERLY LOW LEVEL WIND COMPONENT UNDER SEASONALLY STRONG MID/UPPER
WESTERLIES LEADING TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EASILY SUPPORTING OF
SUPERCELLS...WITH MLCAPE GENERALLY IN THE 2000-4000 J/KG RANGE. WITH
THE AREA BETWEEN BETTER FORCING MECHANISMS ALOFT, SURFACE
CONVERGENCE WOULD SEEM TO BE THE PRIMARY NEED FOR STORMS AND IS NOT
VERY STRONG AT THIS POINT. WILL CONTINUE WITH SMALL POPS MOST
LOCATIONS INTO THE EVENING IN CASE AN AREA OF CONSTANT FOCUS
MATERIALIZES. BEYOND THE SHORTER TERM, WILL BE WATCHING ORGANIZATION
OF STORMS TO THE WEST WITH VARIOUS IDEAS OF HOW THIS WILL TRANSPIRE
TONIGHT. LOW LEVEL JET OF 30-40KT SHOULD SUPPORT CONVECTION INTO
EASTERN KANSAS, WITH ELEVATED CAPE DECREASING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH
THROUGH THE NIGHT KEEPING BETTER CHANCES IN THE NORTH. PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES AROUND 1.8 INCHES ARE WELL ABOVE NORMAL THOUGH A
GENERALLY PROGRESSIVE MCS SEEMS MORE LIKELY KEEPING A HIGH HEAVY RAIN
CONCERN IN CHECK.

FOR THURSDAY, MCS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ENDING QUICKER THAN TODAY WITH
A WEAKER UPPER SUPPORT ANTICIPATED. A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH IS
SUGGESTED TO BE DRAPED ACROSS THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON THOUGH MID
LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOULD PUT MORE OF A CAP IN PLACE. WILL
ONLY GO WITH SMALL CHANCES NEAREST THE TROUGH AT THIS POINT. HAVE
REMAINED SOMEWHAT CONSERVATIVE WITH HIGH TEMPS GIVEN STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON CLOUD/PRECIP TRENDS AND MIXING DEPTHS. DEWPOINTS
AGAIN INTO THE MID 70S WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES
AROUND 105 AND AN ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA MAY BE NEEDED IF
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 254 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

FOR THE PERIOD THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...KANSAS REMAINS ON
THE NORTH EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY TODAY SHOWED A MOISTURE
PLUME STREAMING NORTH ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE HIGH INTO THE
CENTRAL PLAINS. THE MOISTURE PLUME WILL REMAIN OVER EASTERN KANSAS
DURING THE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY TIME PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE, THERE
SHOULD BE A WEAK TROUGH IN THE VICINITY WITH GENERALLY SOUTHERLY
FLOW. MOISTURE SHOULD BE PLENTIFUL AND THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD
REMAIN UNSTABLE. HOWEVER, THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT FORCING AND
WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES MAKE TIMING PRECIPITATION CHANCES
DIFFICULT IN BOTH TIME AND SPACE. ALL THE MODELS GENERATE SPOTTY
PRECIPITION IN THE MOISTURE PLUME AND WILL CARRY SMALL POPS MOST
PERIODS.

TEMPERATURES COUPLED WITH THE HIGH DEW POINTS SHOULD RESULT IN
HIGH APPARENT TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD. THE THERMAL RIDGE
LOOKS MOST PRONOUNCED ON SATURDAY WITH 850 TEMPERATURES PUSHING
THE UPPER 20S C WHICH SUPPORTS HIGHS NEAR 100 IN THE WESTERN
COUNTIES. WITH ALL OF THE RECENT RAINFALL, IT WILL BE HARD TO
LOWER DEW POINTS DUE TO MIXING WHICH HAS BEEN THE CASE RECENTLY.
GIVEN THIS, EXPECT APPARENT TEMPERATURES TO REACH AROUND 105 F
EACH AFTERNOON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH SATURDAY A LITTLE HIGHER.
WILL HIGHLIGHT THE PROLONGED HEAT IN OUR SOCIAL MEDIA VIA THE WEATHER
STORY AND THE HWO FOR NOW. HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED AT SOME POINT
AS TIME PERIOD APPROACHES.

IN THE EXTENDED...SUNDAY LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
WILL BE THE MOST ACTIVE PERIOD LOOKING AHEAD. THERE REMAINS GOOD
CONSISTENCY WITH A COOL BOUNDARY BEING FORCED INTO THE CENTRAL
PLAINS AND MAKING ITS WAY JUST THROUGH THE OUTLOOK AREA INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN KS BEFORE STALLING OUT GENERALLY AND LIKELY
LINGERING THEREAFTER. THE BEST FORCING FOR SEVERE LOOKS TO BE OVER
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK AREA WITH SHEAR PARAMETERS,
MUCAPES AND LOW LEVEL HELICITY VALUES SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS SHOULD EVERYTHING PLAY OUT AS CURRENTLY PROGGED. THE
GFS IS DEVELOPING SURFACE FEATURES DEEPER THAN THE ECMWF BUT
PLACEMENT AND TIMING IS AGAIN GENERALLY SIMILAR. THE NEXT
SHORTWAVE THAT COULD DEVELOP A STORM SYSTEM SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME.

RELATIVELY COOLER TEMPS ARE INTRODUCED FOR MONDAY BEHIND THE FRONTAL
SYSTEM AND RAIN COOLED AIR.  BUT THEY DON'T LAST TOO LONG AS TEMPS
AGAIN RISE INTO THE 90S BY TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.  LOWS WILL MOSTLY
RANGE IN THE 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 644 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

SEVERAL BOUNDARIES REMAIN IN PLAY OVER THE NEXT 6 HOURS IN A LINE
THROUGH AND JUST NORTH OF THE TERMINALS. IT DOES APPEAR THAT
MAINLY VCTS CAN BE EXPECTED DUE TO THE NATURE OF THESE BOUNDARIES
AS IT WILL BE HARD TO PINPOINT ANY ONE PARTICULAR AREA OF STORMS.
OUTSIDE OF THIS EXPECT WINDS TO VEER BACK TO THE SOUTH ONCE AGAIN
INTO THE DAY TOMORROW. THERE MAY BE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS
AFFECTING THE TERMINALS TOMORROW AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LEFT THAT FOR
A LATER FORECAST AS THE CHANCES LOOK TOO SMALL TO MENTION IN THE
TAFS.

&&

.TOP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...65
LONG TERM...DRAKE/JOHNSON
AVIATION...DRAKE

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

KSZ008>012-020>024-026-034>040-054>056-058-059-161745-
REPUBLIC-WASHINGTON-MARSHALL-NEMAHA-BROWN-CLOUD-CLAY-RILEY-
POTTAWATOMIE-JACKSON-JEFFERSON-OTTAWA-DICKINSON-GEARY-MORRIS-
WABAUNSEE-SHAWNEE-DOUGLAS-LYON-OSAGE-FRANKLIN-COFFEY-ANDERSON-
1231 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EAST CENTRAL...NORTH
CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE ENTIRE AREA MAINLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THERE WILL BE SOME CHANCE FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THIS PERIOD...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A FEW TORNADOES COULD
OCCUR.

A CLUSTER OF STRONG OR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FORM OVER WESTERN
PORTIONS OF NEBRASKA AND KANSAS AND TRACK EASTWARD...IMPACTING
NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST KANSAS. DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
THE MAIN HAZARD WITH THESE STORMS.

HEAT INDICES THIS AFTERNOON RANGE FROM 100 TO 104 DEGREES ALONG
AND SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

THERE ARE OCCASIONAL SLIGHT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
THROUGH THE PERIOD. A STRONGER SYSTEM AND A COOL FRONT ON SUNDAY
AND SUNDAY EVENING MAY DEVELOP WIDESPREAD STORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR THE OUTLOOK AREA. SOME OF THESE STORMS
COULD BE SEVERE.

AFTERNOON HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 107 RANGE ARE LIKELY
FROM THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING.

&&

MORE DETAILED INFORMATION CAN BE ACCESSED AT...
HTTP://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/TOP/SITREP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
623 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0620 PM     HAIL             8 SW WAMEGO             39.11N 96.39W
07/15/2015  E1.75 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
633 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0633 PM     HAIL             4 SSW WAMEGO            39.15N 96.33W
07/15/2015  E1.50 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
638 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     TSTM WND GST     5 NNW MCFARLAND         39.12N 96.28W
07/15/2015  E60 MPH          WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

BAERG

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TOPEKA KS
639 PM CDT WED JUL 15 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0637 PM     HEAVY RAIN       5 NNW MCFARLAND         39.12N 96.28W
07/15/2015  E3.00 INCH       WABAUNSEE          KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            FELL IN 15 MINUTES

&&

BAERG