Alert archive / Illinois / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 413

July 13, 201558 counties in Illinois; 8 counties in Indiana; 9 counties in Iowa

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at Jul 13, 2015, 4:01 PM CDT for 58 counties in Illinois; 8 counties in Indiana; 9 counties in Iowa. It was in force for 7 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jul 13, 2015, 4:01 PM CDT (21:01 UTC)
Expired
Jul 13, 2015, 11:00 PM CDT
In force
7 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected
3 in
Strongest gust expected
60 kt
All 75 counties

Cedar County, IA, Clinton County, IA, Des Moines County, IA, Dubuque County, IA, Jackson County, IA, Jones County, IA, Louisa County, IA, Muscatine County, IA, Scott County, IA, Boone County, IL, Bureau County, IL, Carroll County, IL, Cass County, IL, Champaign County, IL, Christian County, IL, Coles County, IL, Cook County, IL, DeKalb County, IL, DeWitt County, IL, Douglas County, IL, DuPage County, IL, Edgar County, IL, Ford County, IL, Fulton County, IL, Grundy County, IL, Hancock County, IL, Henderson County, IL, Henry County, IL, Iroquois County, IL, Jo Daviess County, IL, Kane County, IL, Kankakee County, IL, Kendall County, IL, Knox County, IL, Lake County, IL, LaSalle County, IL, Lee County, IL, Livingston County, IL, Logan County, IL, Macon County, IL, Marshall County, IL, Mason County, IL, McDonough County, IL, McHenry County, IL, McLean County, IL, Menard County, IL, Mercer County, IL, Morgan County, IL, Moultrie County, IL, Ogle County, IL, Peoria County, IL, Piatt County, IL, Putnam County, IL, Rock Island County, IL, Sangamon County, IL, Schuyler County, IL, Scott County, IL, Shelby County, IL, Stark County, IL, Stephenson County, IL, Tazewell County, IL, Vermilion County, IL, Warren County, IL, Whiteside County, IL, Will County, IL, Winnebago County, IL, Woodford County, IL, Benton County, IN, Fountain County, IN, Jasper County, IN, Lake County, IN, Newton County, IN, Porter County, IN, Vermillion County, IN, Warren County, IN

The radar

The Quad Cities radar (KDVN), 77 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes
40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
20%
Ten or more severe wind reports
80%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
20%
Ten or more severe hail reports
50%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
40%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
95%

Warnings issued inside it

29 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 4:36 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNClinton, Scott39 min
Jul 13, 4:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLaSalle61 min
Jul 13, 5:08 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNRock Island, Whiteside27 min
Jul 13, 5:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, LaSalle, Livingston53 min
Jul 13, 5:53 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNHancock37 min
Jul 13, 5:54 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBureau, Henry39 min
Jul 13, 6:29 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTFord, Grundy, Kankakee, Livingston61 min
Jul 13, 6:38 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTGrundy, Kendall, Will52 min
Jul 13, 6:40 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTIroquois35 min
Jul 13, 6:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningILXCass, Morgan, Scott44 min
Jul 13, 6:48 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBureau, Henry, Putnam37 min
Jul 13, 7:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTKankakee, Will49 min
Jul 13, 7:14 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningINDTippecanoe, Warren46 min
Jul 13, 7:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook24 min
Jul 13, 7:22 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTIroquois, Kankakee53 min
Jul 13, 7:37 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLake38 min
Jul 13, 7:42 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTBenton33 min
Jul 13, 7:54 PM CDTTornado WarningINDTippecanoe, Warren36 min
Jul 13, 8:00 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningLOTBenton5 hr
Jul 13, 8:01 PM CDTFlash Flood WarningINDTippecanoe, Warren3 hr
Jul 13, 8:16 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTIroquois, Kankakee44 min
Jul 13, 8:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningDVNBureau, Putnam30 min
Jul 13, 8:23 PM CDTTornado WarningINDTippecanoe, Warren19 min
Jul 13, 8:46 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook, DuPage29 min
Jul 13, 8:51 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTBoone, McHenry, Winnebago39 min
Jul 13, 8:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook, DuPage31 min
Jul 13, 9:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTBoone, McHenry, Winnebago41 min
Jul 13, 9:34 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTLake, Porter30 min
Jul 13, 9:56 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningLOTCook, DeKalb, DuPage, Kane33 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Davenport, (KDVN), launched 12:00Z, 9.0 hours before the alert went out and 70 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-07-13Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 3490 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Davenport, at 12:00Z on 2015-07-13The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 86 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
3490 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-51 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
832 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
86 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
83 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
1.7
Supercell composite
6.3

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

551 
WWUS20 KWNS 132059
SEL3  
SPC WW 132059
IAZ000-ILZ000-INZ000-LMZ000-140400-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 413
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
400 PM CDT MON JUL 13 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  EASTERN IOWA
  NORTHERN AND CENTRAL ILLINOIS
  NORTHWEST INDIANA
  LAKE MICHIGAN

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 400 PM UNTIL
  1100 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH LIKELY
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
    INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN IOWA AND MUCH OF
NORTHERN/CENTRAL ILLINOIS INTO NORTHWEST INDIANA. SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
OF LARGE HAIL AND A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL INITIALLY BE
POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS NEAR A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY.
LATER THIS EVENING A MORE WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND RISK MAY EVOLVE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 110 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF
ROCKFORD ILLINOIS TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF BLOOMINGTON
ILLINOIS.  FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 410...WW 411...WW 412...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30030.


...GUYER

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Jul 13, 3:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage, Grundy, Iroquois and 7 more116 min
Jul 13, 4:14 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Cook, DeKalb, DuPage and 18 more6 hr
Jul 13, 7:19 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCFord, Grundy, Iroquois, Kankakee, Kendall, LaSalle and 2 more86 min
Jul 13, 9:17 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCChampaign, Clark, Coles, Crawford, Cumberland, DeWitt and 16 more4 hr
Jul 13, 11:01 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCEdwards, Wabash, White89 min
Jul 13, 3:21 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Bureau, Carroll, Champaign, DeKalb, DeWitt and 29 more84 min
Jul 13, 4:33 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Christian, Clinton and 14 more57 min
Jul 13, 6:20 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAdams, Bond, Brown, Calhoun, Clinton, Fayette and 11 more4 hr
Jul 13, 6:59 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBoone, Brown, Bureau, Carroll, Cass, Champaign and 65 more91 min
Jul 13, 11:55 AM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCClark, Crawford, Dearborn, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison and 8 more7 hr
Jul 13, 2:04 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCClark, Crawford, Dubois, Floyd, Harrison, Orange and 1 more86 min
Jul 12, 7:51 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCDickinson, Emmet, Kossuth, Winnebago114 min
Jul 12, 9:03 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Chickasaw, Howard, Winneshiek117 min
Jul 12, 9:41 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBremer, Butler, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Floyd, Hancock and 4 more94 min
Jul 12, 9:59 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Butler, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clayton and 7 more6 hr
Jul 12, 11:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Bremer, Butler, Cerro Gordo, Chickasaw, Clayton and 7 more95 min
Jul 13, 2:00 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAllamakee, Clayton, Fayette, Winneshiek2 hr
Jul 13, 3:11 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCAllamakee6 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Illinois, 2015Tornado Watches in Iowa, 2015Tornado Watches in Indiana, 2015Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.