Alert archive / Arkansas / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015
Severe Thunderstorm Watch 187
The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 17, 2015, 2:06 AM CDT for 16 counties in Arkansas; 16 counties in Missouri. It was in force for 5 hr.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- May 17, 2015, 2:06 AM CDT (07:06 UTC)
- Expired
- May 17, 2015, 7:00 AM CDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- the Storm Prediction Center
- Largest hail expected
- 1 in
- Strongest gust expected
- 60 kt
All 32 counties
Baxter County, AR, Boone County, AR, Cleburne County, AR, Conway County, AR, Fulton County, AR, Independence County, AR, Izard County, AR, Johnson County, AR, Logan County, AR, Marion County, AR, Newton County, AR, Pope County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Sharp County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR, Camden County, MO, Dallas County, MO, Dent County, MO, Douglas County, MO, Howell County, MO, Laclede County, MO, Maries County, MO, Miller County, MO, Oregon County, MO, Ozark County, MO, Phelps County, MO, Pulaski County, MO, Shannon County, MO, Texas County, MO, Webster County, MO, Wright County, MO
What SPC expected
The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.
- Two or more tornadoes
- 20%
- One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes
- 5%
- Ten or more severe wind reports
- 40%
- One or more gusts of 65 knots or more
- 10%
- Ten or more severe hail reports
- 20%
- One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more
- 5%
- Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports
- 70%
Warnings issued inside it
9 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 17, 2:08 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Barry, Christian, Dallas, Greene, Lawrence, Polk and 3 more | 52 min |
| May 17, 2:15 AM CDT | Tornado Warning | SGF | Dallas, Hickory, Polk, St. Clair | 25 min |
| May 17, 2:33 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Camden, Dallas, Laclede, Miller, Morgan | 57 min |
| May 17, 2:44 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Christian, Douglas, Webster, Wright | 61 min |
| May 17, 3:21 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Boone, Johnson, Logan, Marion, Newton, Polk and 2 more | 5 hr |
| May 17, 3:24 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Camden, Laclede, Maries, Miller, Morgan, Phelps and 1 more | 66 min |
| May 17, 3:35 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | SGF | Douglas, Howell, Texas, Wright | 55 min |
| May 17, 4:46 AM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | LZK | Johnson, Newton, Pope, Searcy | 44 min |
| May 17, 5:32 AM CDT | Flash Flood Warning | LZK | Johnson, Logan, Montgomery, Newton, Polk, Pope and 3 more | 3 hr |
Discussions around it
SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.
The nearest sounding before it
Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 112 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1727 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -4 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1056 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 41 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 127 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 218 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 1.4
- Supercell composite
- 11.8
SPC that day
Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 8:42 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Benton, Carroll, Crawford, Franklin, Madison, Sebastian and 1 more | 8 hr |
| May 17, 1:43 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Carroll, Cleburne, Conway, Crawford and 18 more | 92 min |
| May 17, 4:27 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Cleburne, Conway, Faulkner, Fulton, Independence and 11 more | 93 min |
| May 17, 6:25 AM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Baxter, Boone, Cleburne, Conway, Fulton, Independence and 10 more | 65 min |
| May 16, 8:31 PM CDT | Mesoscale Discussion | SPC | Andrew, Bates, Buchanan, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass and 15 more | 89 min |
| May 16, 10:21 PM CDT | Tornado Watch | SPC | Barry, Barton, Benton, Cedar, Christian, Dade and 11 more | 5 hr |
| May 16, 10:27 PM CDT | Severe Thunderstorm Watch | SPC | Adair, Bates, Caldwell, Carroll, Cass, Chariton and 15 more | 4 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Arkansas, 2015Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Missouri, 2015Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.