Alert archive / New Mexico / Severe Thunderstorm Watches in 2015

Severe Thunderstorm Watch 128

May 4, 20156 counties in New Mexico; Culberson County, Jeff Davis County, Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this severe thunderstorm watch at May 4, 2015, 12:58 PM MDT for 6 counties in New Mexico; Culberson County, Jeff Davis County, Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 4, 2015, 12:58 PM MDT (18:58 UTC)
Expired: May 4, 2015, 7:00 PM MDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 2 in
Strongest gust expected: 60 kt

Counties Chaves County, NM, De Baca County, NM, Eddy County, NM, Lea County, NM, Lincoln County, NM, Roosevelt County, NM, Culberson County, TX, Jeff Davis County, TX

The radar

The Holloman AFB radar (KHDX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:02 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 10%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 2%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 50%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 10%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 60%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 30%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 80%

Warnings issued inside it

8 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 4, 2:07 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Lea	23 min
May 4, 2:14 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Jeff Davis, Reeves	61 min
May 4, 2:20 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	ABQ	Chaves	40 min
May 4, 2:54 PM MDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Jeff Davis, Reeves	51 min
May 4, 3:25 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Culberson, Reeves	28 min
May 4, 4:00 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Eddy	19 min
May 4, 4:36 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Culberson	54 min
May 4, 5:39 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Culberson	51 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Santa Teresa, NM (KEPZ), launched 12:00Z, 7.0 hours before the alert went out and 200 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 21 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -157 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 2302 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 10 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 90 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 4, 12:28 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, Eddy, Lea	92 min
May 4, 12:45 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Colfax, Curry, Guadalupe, Harding, Mora, Quay and 2 more	2 hr
May 4, 1:08 PM MDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Otero	112 days
May 4, 2:27 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Otero and 1 more	93 min
May 4, 5:27 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Chaves, De Baca, Eddy, Lea, Lincoln, Otero and 1 more	2 hr
May 4, 1:07 PM MDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Brewster, Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Terrell and 2 more	6 hr
May 4, 2:46 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Ward and 1 more	59 min
May 4, 4:58 PM MDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Crane, Ector, Loving, Pecos, Reeves and 4 more	2 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Watches in New Mexico, 2015 Severe Thunderstorm Watches in Texas, 2015 Every severe thunderstorm watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.