Alert archive / Texas / Tornado Watches in 2015

Tornado Watch 129

May 4, 20158 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this tornado watch at May 4, 2015, 2:07 PM CDT for 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 6 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: May 4, 2015, 2:07 PM CDT (19:07 UTC)
Expired: May 4, 2015, 7:54 PM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Largest hail expected: 3 in
Strongest gust expected: 70 kt

Counties Brewster County, TX, Crane County, TX, Loving County, TX, Pecos County, TX, Reeves County, TX, Terrell County, TX, Ward County, TX, Winkler County, TX

The radar

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 146 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 19:08 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What SPC expected

The probabilities SPC published with the watch, for the watch area over its life.

Two or more tornadoes: 40%
One or more EF2 to EF5 tornadoes: 20%
Ten or more severe wind reports: 70%
One or more gusts of 65 knots or more: 30%
Ten or more severe hail reports: 70%
One or more hailstones of 2 inches or more: 60%
Six or more combined severe hail and wind reports: 80%

Warnings issued inside it

11 tornado, severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings for its counties while it was in force.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 4, 3:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Jeff Davis, Reeves	61 min
May 4, 3:54 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Jeff Davis, Reeves	51 min
May 4, 4:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Loving, Reeves	44 min
May 4, 4:25 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Culberson, Reeves	28 min
May 4, 4:25 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Reeves	50 min
May 4, 4:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Loving, Reeves	44 min
May 4, 5:12 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Pecos, Reeves	63 min
May 4, 5:30 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MAF	Loving	25 min
May 4, 6:00 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Pecos, Reeves	45 min
May 4, 6:39 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Pecos	51 min
May 4, 7:29 PM CDT	Tornado Warning	MAF	Pecos	31 min

Discussions around it

SPC mesoscale discussions over the same counties from four hours before the watch to its end.

The nearest sounding before it

Midland Regional, TX (KMAF), launched 12:00Z, 7.1 hours before the alert went out and 146 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 419 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -200 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1214 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 19 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 128 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 121 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

375 
WWUS20 KWNS 041905
SEL9  
SPC WW 041905
TXZ000-050100-

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 129
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
205 PM CDT MON MAY 4 2015

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF 
  SOUTHWEST TEXAS

* EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 205 PM UNTIL
  800 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
  A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
  SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 3
    INCHES IN DIAMETER LIKELY
  SCATTERED DAMAGING WINDS LIKELY WITH ISOLATED SIGNIFICANT GUSTS
    TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...ISOLATED INTENSE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
OVER PARTS OF SOUTHWEST TX THIS AFTERNOON AND AFFECT THE WATCH AREA.
 INCREASING MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE WINDS ALOFT WILL POSE A RISK OF
VERY LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES NORTHWEST OF WINK
TEXAS TO 40 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DRYDEN TEXAS.  FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 128...

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 3 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25030.


...HART

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 4, 1:28 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Brewster, Crane, Culberson, Ector, Gaines and 7 more	92 min
May 4, 1:45 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Carson, Dallam, Deaf Smith, Hansford, Hartley, Hutchinson and 5 more	2 hr
May 4, 1:58 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Culberson, Jeff Davis	6 hr
May 4, 2:08 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Hudspeth	112 days
May 4, 3:27 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Andrews, Bailey, Cochran, Culberson, Gaines, Hockley and 5 more	93 min
May 4, 3:46 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Crane, Loving, Pecos, Reeves, Ward and 1 more	59 min
May 4, 5:58 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Brewster, Crane, Ector, Loving, Pecos, Reeves and 4 more	2 hr
May 4, 6:27 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Culberson, Hudspeth, Jeff Davis, Loving, Reeves	2 hr

Nearby

Tornado Watches in Texas, 2015 Every tornado watch in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.