Mesoscale Discussion 993

Issued

Jun 12, 2015, 5:39 PM CDT (22:39 UTC)

Expired

Jun 12, 2015, 7:15 PM CDT

In force

96 min

Issued by

the Storm Prediction Center

The Midland/Odessa radar (KMAF), 37 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 22:40 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

680 
ACUS11 KWNS 122239
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 122239 
TXZ000-NMZ000-130015-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0993
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0539 PM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

AREAS AFFECTED...SRN TX PANHANDLE...TX S PLAINS...SW TX

CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 293...

VALID 122239Z - 130015Z

THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 293 CONTINUES.

SUMMARY...THREAT FOR VERY LARGE HAIL /GREATER THAN 2 INCH IN
DIAMETER/...DAMAGING WINDS...AND A TORNADO OR TWO CONTINUES ACROSS
ALL OF TORNADO WATCH 293.

DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS SUPERCELLS
ONGOING ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. SURFACE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION
ARE CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO LOW 90S AND
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. THESE SURFACE CONDITIONS BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE RESULTING IN MLCAPE AROUND 1500 TO
2000 J PER KG DOWNSTREAM OF THE ONGOING STORMS. GIVEN THIS
DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY IN TANDEM WITH A FAVORABLE TIME OF
DAY...NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND A FAVORABLE KINEMATIC
ENVIRONMENT /LBB AND MID VAD PROFILES SAMPLED 42 AND 36 KT OF 0-6 KM
BULK SHEAR/...THE ONGOING ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR AT
LEAST THE NEXT FEW HOURS. BASED ON RECENT TRENDS...ANY STORM
DISSIPATION WILL LIKELY BE THE RESULT OF STORM INTERACTIONS/MERGERS.
GIVEN THE STORMS PROXIMITY TO ONE ANOTHER...SOME UPSCALE GROWTH IS
PROBABLE AS COLD POOLS AMALGAMATE. THIS APPEARS TO HAVE OCCURRED
RECENTLY OVER LAMB CO TX. THE PRIMARY RESULT OF THIS UPSCALE GROWTH
IS A LESSENED TORNADO RISK. THAT BEING SAID...THE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS AND A RESULTING RISK FOR
ALL SEVERE HAZARDS.

..MOSIER.. 06/12/2015

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...SJT...LUB...AMA...MAF...

LAT...LON   30260401 35020242 35030013 30260182 30260401

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.