Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1900

October 30, 201531 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 30, 2015, 4:45 PM CDT for 31 counties in Texas. It was in force for 3 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Oct 30, 2015, 4:45 PM CDT (21:45 UTC)
Expired
Oct 30, 2015, 7:15 PM CDT
In force
3 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch
60%
All 31 counties

Bandera County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Blanco County, TX, Brown County, TX, Burnet County, TX, Concho County, TX, Dimmit County, TX, Edwards County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gillespie County, TX, Kendall County, TX, Kerr County, TX, Kimble County, TX, Kinney County, TX, Lampasas County, TX, Llano County, TX, Mason County, TX, Maverick County, TX, McCulloch County, TX, Medina County, TX, Menard County, TX, Mills County, TX, Real County, TX, Runnels County, TX, San Saba County, TX, Schleicher County, TX, Sutton County, TX, Tom Green County, TX, Uvalde County, TX, Val Verde County, TX, Zavala County, TX

The radar

The Laughlin AFB radar (KDFX), 106 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

The nearest sounding before it

Del Rio, TX (KDLF), launched 12:00Z, 9.8 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2015-10-30Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 898 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Del Rio, TX at 12:00Z on 2015-10-30The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 122 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
898 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-45 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
721 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
122 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
307 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.9
Supercell composite
5.2

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Oct 29, 11:55 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBandera, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Kimble, Kinney and 10 more3 hr
Oct 30, 3:48 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Bexar, Caldwell, Comal, DeWitt, Frio and 6 more117 min
Oct 30, 6:07 AM CDTTornado WatchSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 21 more6 hr
Oct 30, 7:02 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCKenedy, Kleberg, Nueces, San Patricio118 min
Oct 30, 7:49 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Burleson and 16 more86 min
Oct 30, 10:32 AM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAtascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Burleson and 18 more58 min
Oct 30, 12:02 PM CDTTornado WatchSPCAustin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 16 more7 hr
Oct 30, 2:14 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCAustin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 13 more61 min
Oct 30, 5:40 PM CDTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBell, Brazos, Burleson, Falls, Freestone, Lee and 7 more2 hr
Oct 30, 6:21 PM CDTSevere Thunderstorm WatchSPCBandera, Blanco, Burnet, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio and 11 more8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.