Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2015

Mesoscale Discussion 1895

October 30, 201512 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Oct 30, 2015, 3:48 AM CDT for 12 counties in Texas. It was in force for 117 min.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Oct 30, 2015, 3:48 AM CDT (08:48 UTC)
Expired: Oct 30, 2015, 5:45 AM CDT
In force: 117 min
Issued by: the Storm Prediction Center
Chance of a watch: 40%

Counties Atascosa County, TX, Bexar County, TX, Caldwell County, TX, Comal County, TX, DeWitt County, TX, Frio County, TX, Gonzales County, TX, Guadalupe County, TX, Karnes County, TX, Lavaca County, TX, Medina County, TX, Wilson County, TX

The radar

The Austin/San Antonio radar (KEWX), 47 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:48 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The watches that followed

Watches SPC issued over any of the same counties within four hours of this discussion.

Tornado Watch 523Oct 30, 6:05 AM CDT

The nearest sounding before it

Corpus Christi, TX (KCRP), launched 00:00Z, 8.8 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 1304 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -7 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 735 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 43 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 90 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 148 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.8
Supercell composite: 5.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

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SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Oct 29, 11:55 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bandera, Edwards, Gillespie, Kerr, Kimble, Kinney and 10 more	3 hr
Oct 30, 6:07 AM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Blanco and 21 more	6 hr
Oct 30, 7:02 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Kenedy, Kleberg, Nueces, San Patricio	118 min
Oct 30, 7:49 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Burleson and 16 more	86 min
Oct 30, 10:32 AM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Atascosa, Austin, Bandera, Bastrop, Bexar, Burleson and 18 more	58 min
Oct 30, 12:02 PM CDT	Tornado Watch	SPC	Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 16 more	7 hr
Oct 30, 2:14 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Austin, Bastrop, Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Caldwell and 13 more	61 min
Oct 30, 4:45 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bandera, Bexar, Blanco, Brown, Burnet, Concho and 25 more	3 hr
Oct 30, 5:40 PM CDT	Mesoscale Discussion	SPC	Bell, Brazos, Burleson, Falls, Freestone, Lee and 7 more	2 hr
Oct 30, 6:21 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Watch	SPC	Bandera, Blanco, Burnet, Dimmit, Edwards, Frio and 11 more	8 hr

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2015 Every mesoscale discussion in 2015

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.