Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Shreveport, LA

635 
WGUS74 KSHV 181456
FFSSHV

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
956 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

TXC005-347-365-401-419-181730-
/O.CON.KSHV.FF.W.0065.000000T0000Z-150618T1730Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
RUSK TX-NACOGDOCHES TX-SHELBY TX-ANGELINA TX-PANOLA TX-
956 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1230 PM CDT
THURSDAY FOR SOUTHEASTERN RUSK...NACOGDOCHES...SHELBY...ANGELINA AND
PANOLA COUNTIES...

AT 938 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR AND AUTOMATED RAIN GAUGES INDICATED 
THAT HEAVY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL OVER THE AREA. THREE TO SIX INCHES 
OF RAIN HAVE ALREADY FALLEN. FLASH FLOODING IS ONGOING.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
LUFKIN...NACOGDOCHES...CARTHAGE...CENTER...DIBOLL...HUDSON...
HUNTINGTON...LOGANSPORT...TENAHA...TIMPSON...GARRISON...BECKVILLE...
JOAQUIN...DOUGLASS...PATROON...DEBERRY...PINEHILL...MELROSE...TRAWICK
AND NEUVILLE.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WARNED 
AREA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND NOW. ACT QUICKLY TO PROTECT YOUR LIFE.

TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS. MOST FLOOD
DEATHS OCCUR IN VEHICLES.

&&

LAT...LON 3113 9482 3125 9488 3149 9491 3185 9495
      3230 9449 3236 9405 3199 9404 3190 9390
      3172 9382 3157 9398 3162 9409 3165 9440
      3157 9431 3124 9434 3118 9426 3118 9425
      3105 9436 3103 9447

$$

09

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

.DISCUSSION...
SHWRS/TSTMS ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM BILL
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH THE PD. LOW CIGS/VSBYS
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE VC OF ANY CONVECTION...BUT OTHERWISE...WE
SHOULD SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM ABOUT MID MORNING TODAY THROUGH
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SLY WINDS SUSTAINED AT AROUND 12-18
KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS THROUGHOUT MUCH OF THE PD. /12/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 520 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015/

DISCUSSION...
THE REMNANTS OF BILL IS RIGHT OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER OF LAKE
TEXOMA WITH SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF TO OCCUR TODAY WITH WRAP AROUND
ACTIVITY STILL IN PROGRESS. THE LAKE LEVEL IS ONLY ABOUT A FOOT
FROM THE SPILLWAY AND ANOTHER CREST WILL BE DETERMINED AND WORKING
DOWN STREAM AS RELEASES MAY BE ENHANCED BY ANOTHER SPILL. BILL IS
SLOWLY MOVING NNE AT 10 MPH PER THE LATEST WPC ADVISORY. WINDS ARE
ONLY 25 MPH SUSTAINED...BUT EFFECTIVELY WRAPPING UP THE MOIST
TROPICAL CONNECTION THAT IS DRAPED AROUND OVER THE ARKLATEX INTO
THE COASTAL BEND. THE MODELS ARE CONSISTENT...BUT APPEAR TO LACK
FOCUS CONSIDERING THE RADAR TRENDS OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS.
THE HRRR IS LOOKING GOOD TO START WITH RAPID REFRESH AND WEAKENS
THE CURRENT FOCUS AND REDEVELOPS LATER THIS MORNING FROM SOUTH OF
TYLER...TO NEAR TEXARKANA. EITHER WAY...HEATING WILL BE A PLAYER
AND EVEN THE HRRR MAY BE OFF AS CURRENT ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY GUST
OUT INTO THE WARMER AREAS. RECOVERY OF RAIN AREAS WILL BE MUCH
QUICKER THAN NORMAL WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN LIKELY FOR ALMOST
ANYWHERE WITH MODEST CAPE IN THIS SUPER RICH TROPICAL CONNECTION
THAT IS FUNNELING IN OVER THE AREA.

THE WATER VAPOR SHOWS A DRY SLOT OF AIR THAT IS ESTABLISHED OVER
SE OK WHICH COULD BE A BACK EDGE FOR DEVELOPMENT AS THE
CIRCULATION SLOWLY MOVES EASTWARD...BUT THE WRAP AROUND MAY KEEP
TO OUR NORTH. ALSO TO NOTE...IS A LARGE DRY AIR PUSH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN GULF UNDER THE BERMUDA RIDGE WITH A RESULTING SHARP SHEAR
AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE TEXAS COASTAL BEND UP TO NEAR MEMPHIS.

THIS IS A DANGEROUS SITUATION WITH ALL THE HIGH WATER IS
PLACE...RECENT RAINFALL...WHAT IS ON RADAR NOW AND WHAT WILL
LIKELY BE DEVELOPING WITH EVEN LIMITED HEATING. THE FLOOD WATCH
HAS BEEN EXPANDED FOR THE ENTIRE FOUR STATE AREA UNTIL EARLY THIS
EVENING. THIS COULD EVEN BE NEEDED BEYOND THAT TIME DEPENDING ON
PROGRESSION OF BILL AND THE TROPICAL CONNECTION LOCATIONS TOWARD
SUNDOWN. BILLS CORE WILL KEEP ACTIVITY TIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE SHEAR AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE AREA TO SOME
DEGREE OVERNIGHT. WE COULD SEE RAIN TOTALS TODAY AND OVERALL EVENT
TOTALS GIVE US A VERY WET MONTH DESPITE THE DRY START. THIS ALONG
WITH A VERY SWOLLEN SYSTEM OF LAKES...BAYOUS...RIVERS AND
BACKWATER INTO THE EARLY PART OF SUMMER. /24/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  84  75  90  75 /  80  30  30  10
MLU  87  75  91  74 /  30  20  30  10
DEQ  80  72  85  72 /  80  80  40  20
TXK  84  74  89  75 /  70  60  40  20
ELD  85  74  88  74 /  50  40  40  20
TYR  85  74  89  74 /  70  40  30  10
GGG  85  75  90  74 /  60  40  30  10
LFK  86  75  90  74 /  80  20  40  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-059>061-
     070>073.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR ARZ050-051-
     059-060-070.

LA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR LAZ001>006-010>014-
     017>022.

OK...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR OKZ077.

TX...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-108>112-
     124>126-136>138-149>153-165>167.

     LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR TXZ096-097-
     108>112-124>126-136>138.

&&

12

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

OKZ077-TXZ096-108>111-124-125-136-137-149-150-181115-
MCCURTAIN-RED RIVER-FRANKLIN-TITUS-CAMP-MORRIS-WOOD-UPSHUR-SMITH-
GREGG-CHEROKEE-RUSK-
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
OKLAHOMA AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION BILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF
EASTERN TEXAS...WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLASH FLOODING. ADDITIONALLY...A
COUPLE OF WEAK TORNADOES MAY BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS WIND
SHEAR AND INSTABILITY VALUES ASSOCIATED WITH THE STORM APPEAR
FAVORABLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM REMAIN
POSSIBLE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
BILL. THE RAINFALL MAY RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN A FEW LOCATIONS.
ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING ON THE NECHES...SABINE... ANGELINA...AND
SULPHUR RIVERS OF EAST TEXAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY.

A NEW RISE WILL DEVELOP ON THE RED RIVER IN NORTH TEXAS AND SOUTH
OKLAHOMA AND SPREAD DOWNSTREAM INTO LOUISIANA THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THIS JUNE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS COULD BE REQUIRED DURING THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SPIRAL THUNDERSTORM BANDS ASSOCIATED
WITH TROPICAL DEPRESSION BILL.

ARZ050-051-059>061-070>073-LAZ001>006-010>014-017>022-TXZ097-112-
126-138-151>153-165>167-181115-
SEVIER-HOWARD-LITTLE RIVER-HEMPSTEAD-NEVADA-MILLER-LAFAYETTE-
COLUMBIA-UNION-CADDO-BOSSIER-WEBSTER-CLAIBORNE-LINCOLN-DE SOTO-
RED RIVER-BIENVILLE-JACKSON-OUACHITA-SABINE-NATCHITOCHES-WINN-
GRANT-CALDWELL-LA SALLE-BOWIE-CASS-MARION-HARRISON-PANOLA-
NACOGDOCHES-SHELBY-ANGELINA-SAN AUGUSTINE-
1146 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
ARKANSAS...SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...EAST TEXAS AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY...MAINLY
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

VIII.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
348 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

LAZ010-017-TXZ153-180945-
DE SOTO LA-SABINE LA-SHELBY TX-
348 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SABINE...SOUTHERN DE
SOTO PARISHES IN NORTHWESTERN LOUISIANA AND NORTHEASTERN SHELBY
COUNTIES UNTIL 445 AM CDT...

AT 347 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 9
MILES NORTHEAST OF SHELBYVILLE...OR 13 MILES EAST OF CENTER...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MANSFIELD...HUXLEY...SOUTH MANSFIELD...GRAND CANE...STANLEY...
CARMEL...PELICAN...EVELYN...RAMBIN AND KINGSTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO FLASH FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 15 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3170 9394 3183 9409 3222 9369 3195 9341
TIME...MOT...LOC 0847Z 224DEG 24KT 3183 9395

06

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
626 AM CDT THU JUN 18 2015

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0623 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CENTER                  31.79N  94.18W
06/18/2015                   SHELBY             TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            HIGHWAY 96S BEING REROUTED DUE TO FLASH FLOODING...
            HIGHWAY 87S AND HIGHWAY 7E WATER OVER ROADWAY IN SOME
            AREAS.

&&

EVENT NUMBER SHV1500597

MDV